AC Milan vs Napoli Prediction: Back late goals at San Siro

The big game in Serie A on Sunday sees Napoli travel to the San Siro to take on AC Milan.

Our Italian Football expert Daniele Fisichella is here with his thoughts along with his two Best Bets as he gives us his AC Milan vs Napoli Predictions...

Both sides needed a late comeback last weekend to win their respective matches against Frosinone and Verona.

AC Milan’s unbeaten streak continues (eight games in Italy’s top flight), but their 3-2 success against the newly promoted Ciociari resembled, in both positive and negative aspects, their victory against Udinese two weeks ago.

They took the lead early, thanks to Olivier Giroud’s 11th of the campaign, took their foot off the gas and in the blink of an eye found themselves behind in the scoresheet

But once again, when they had their backs against the wall, AC Milan managed to react like a top side: Giroud provided his eight assist of the season for Matteo Gabbia’s equalizer, and Luka Jovic scored his fourth goal coming from the bench.

The Rossoneri are the team that has scored more goals in Italy’s top flight since the beginning of December (25), and for 10 games in a row they’ve netted at least twice.

But Stefano Pioli’s men, who are now breathing down Juventus’s neck, have made a habit of living dangerously and failed to keep a clean sheet in six of their last seven in all competitions.

Whereas the hosts look like they can score anytime (they’ve got Serie A’s second-best attack) the same can’t be said about last year’s champions.

Napoli had to sweat to beat Verona last Sunday, a crucial win that keeps them four points behind Atalanta in fourth place.

Walter Mazzarri’s side huffed and puffed in the first half, and after going behind, they needed an own-goal and a wonder strike by Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to get the three points.

A great boost for the morale nonetheless, although Napoli hasn’t yet produced a fully convincing display since the former Watford manager took over from Rudi Garcia.

Team News:

The Rossoneri will be without Tijjani Reijnders, who picked up a yellow card against Frosinone and is suspended.

Ismael Bennacer, freshly returned from AFCON, is in contention with Junus Musah, to start in midfield alongside Yacine Adli in place of the Dutchman.

Given the high number of absentees (including four centre-backs, Caldara, Kalulu, Thiaw and Tomori), it's unlikely Stefano Pioli will make much turnover even if AC Milan hosts Rennes next Thursday in the first leg of the Europa League play-offs.

In Napoli’s camp, left-back Mario Rui is also suspended and will be replaced by Pasquale Mazzocchi in the starting line-up. Jens Cajuste, Stanislav Lotobka and Andre Zambo Anguissa will play in midfield.

Leander Dendoncker, signed in the January transfer window, is likely to play in the second half.

Goalkeeper Meret won't be back until the end of this month, and Polish International Zielinski is a doubt for the match at San Siro. Last year's top goalscorer, Victor Osimhen, is still at the AFCON, and up-front Cyril Ngonge is in contention with Matteo Politano for a start.

Match Odds:

AC Milan are favourite to win the match on Sunday (19/20) as they’re unbeaten in the last four games against Napoli.

This season they’ve only lost twice in Serie A at home (1-0 to both Udinese and Juventus) and have conceded only seven goals in front of their crowd.

The draw (13/5) and a victory for the visitors (11/4) pay almost the same.

Napoli have collected more points away from home than at the Maradona, but their record against top teams this season is very poor.

In fact, they’ve only won one (2-1 against Atalanta) of the ten games they’ve played against teams in the top half of the table. They also lost to Real Madrid twice in the Champions League.

The Partenopei’s last away game was a 0-0 against Lazio, where they failed to record a single shot on target, and they also produced a strong defensive display in the SuperCoppa against Inter.

However, given AC Milan’s recent track record, goals should be on the cards on Sunday night. The odds for Over 2.5 are 8/11 and EVS for Under 2.5 goals.

Thirteen out of 23 (57%) AC Milan Serie A matches this season have produced more than two goals with both teams on the scoresheet.

Both sides are in the top four in Italy for Over 2.5 goals: Milan in 15 out of 23 games (65%) and Napoli in 14 out of 22 (64%).

AC Milan or Draw and Both Teams To Score Yes @ 11/10

Napoli have only kept six clean sheets and haven’t yet found their identity nor an ideal formation under Mazzarri.

The Tuscan manager might initially opt for the cautious approach and play with three centre-backs and two wing-backs as he did against Inter.

That’s why games is probably going to be won and lost in the wide areas, where AC Milan’s main threat remains the partnership between Theo Hernandez and Rafael Leao (two goals and three assists in the last seven games) whereas Napoli have lots of options with Cyrill Ngonge and Jesper Lindstrom coming off the bench.

Highest Scoring Half: Second @ 21/20

Napoli have only scored in four of their last 11 games in all competitions, so the chances of a 0-0 draw in the first half are high.

This scenario will suit well the visitors, who are better set up to play on the counter.

They’re also the team, alongside Genoa, that have rescued more points (11) this season from a losing position. Both AC Milan and Napoli games have recorded late goals this season. The hosts have scored 67% of their goals in the second halves, and Napoli 65%.

Together, they’ve scored and conceded 25 times in the last 15 minutes of games in Serie A.

You can check out all of Daniele's Serie A Betting Tips here each week along with those of our other Italian Football writers...