New Zealand v England: Stick with 11/10 hosts in favourable conditions

Jamie Pacheco previews the second T20I between New Zealand and England played at Christchurch on Monday, with a start time of 07:15 (BST) and live on TNT Sports 1.

Jamie thinks the hosts are the value at the prices for the second game and also likes the price on impressive New Zealand opener Tim Robinson at 4/1. Let's check out his top New Zealand vs England Predictions for Monday morning...   

*You can check out the Cricket Odds from all of our Cricket Betting markets over on betfred.com

Match Preview:

New Zealand

New Zealand restricted England to 153/6, producing a rare-looking scorecard in which six players bowled, and all six took exactly one wicket. One of those was our man Kyle Jamieson (backed at 4/1), so that gave us a modest profit of 0.33 points in light of the six-way dead heat; but that’s better than a loss.

Rachin Ravindra looks to have secured the number three spot, while the trio of all-rounders in James Neesham, Michael Bracewell, and Mitchell Santner will have plenty of work to get through.

Jacob Duffy was expensive last time out, but Matt Henry, Jamieson, Bracewell, and Santner were all very economical.

England

England probably had something close to a par score on Friday, with Sam Curran top-scoring with 49 off 35 from number six. It was a reminder of how much his batting has come along in the last couple of years and that he’s more of a batting all-rounder these days. He could be as important as anyone in this England team when the next World Cup comes around.

Phil Salt had a rare failure. Harry Brook hit 20 off 14, but Curran aside, no one really got going.

One thing they need to consider, though, is Jordan Cox’s batting position at seven. If he plays, they need to bat him at three or four rather than down the order. There’s no good reason why Jacob Bethell is coming in at first drop rather than him, so swapping those two around would be a good starting point.

It seems like, for the time being, at least, Adil Rashid and Liam Dawson are the men trusted with bowling spin. At least England are preparing well for the WC in that regard.

It would be surprising if they made any changes here, given the first one wasn’t completed.

Pitch and conditions

We’re at the Hagley Oval again and the first thing to say is that the weather should allow us to get a full game in. Then again, that looked the case for the first match.

But this time round a rival bookmaker makes it 5/1 the match isn’t completed, so that’s quite promising.

There’s definitely something in this wicket, especially for the seamers, so 160-165 batting first and you’re very much in the game.

Match Winner odds 

Last time out the Kiwis were 11/8, implied probability of 42% and this time round, they’re 11/10, which is 47.6%.

So, their price has been cut since last time, but that’s for a good reason: they were good with the ball last time out, and their bowlers look better suited to these conditions, while England's batting is more explosive. But in a game where 160 could do it, maybe they’re also a better batting line-up for these particular conditions.

All of which makes that 11/10 still a good price and we’re not particularly worried about which way the toss goes.

*For all the latest and live New Zealand vs England Odds then head over to betfred.com

0.5pts Back Tim Robinson to be New Zealand Top Batsman @ 4/1

It shows how much New Zealand value Tim Robinson that he seems to have taken the opener’s role away from Devon Conway, who batted in that position for them in all formats for years.

Sixteen T20I appearances have yielded a century and two fifties, an average of 36, and a strike rate of 137, so this is a serious player; his numbers in T20s are even better.

There are some good players to beat here but this might be a wicket where playing the long game might be the way to go and as an opener, he’ll have the chance to pace his innings rather than going for broke at the start. 4/1 is too big a price on an opener with good skills and a strong record.

Jamie Pacheco Cricket P/L 2025: 

• Points Staked: 111.5
• Points Returned: 105.41
• Current P/L: -6.09