South Africa vs Australia Predictions: Plenty of Top Batter bets to ponder in WTC

It’s the much-awaited final of the WTC at Lords’s, starting on Wednesday, with live coverage on Sky Sports Cricket from 10.30 onwards on the day.   

Jamie Pacheco thinks the Aussies are justified favourites to win the game but that the Proteas can be quicker off the mark in the first five overs, while he’s also splitting his second staking point across four big-priced batsmen. Let's check out his South Africa vs Australia Predictions for the World Test Championship Final...

*You can check out all of our Cricket Odds over at betfred.com

South Africa  

The Proteas had a real mountain to climb a few months ago., needing to win six of their last seven Tests to make this final after a poor start to proceedings.  

In the end they did make it but not before Australia did them a favour by beating India comfortably and New Zealand had done them an even bigger favour by incredibly beating India 3-0, in India.  

It actually ended up being more comfortable than the Proteas thought because by the time they played their final Test of this cycle, results elsewhere meant they had already qualified for the showdown, against all odds.  

We could be here all day pinpointing the key moments of that unbelievable run and picking out four or five names who were so integral in making it happen. But instead, we'll highlight the players who could make a huge impact in this very match and who will have to be at the top of their game for SA to be in the with a chance of winning it, for as long as possible. 

Kagiso Rabada will as ever be the spearhead of the attack and has had plenty of experience of English conditions.  

Giant Marco Jansen will do his best to generate any extra bounce from this pitch while he may also be needed to make as significant contribution with the bat at number seven or eight, a bit more than SA would like, to be honest.  

Aiden Markram is the real class act in the middle order and if the pitch takes spin, may have more of a role with the ball than usual.  Finally, with the wicket more likely to take turn as a result of a warm summer so far, frontline spinner Keshav Maharaj will have a big part to play, particularly the second time Australia bat.  

Corbin Bosch, who can also bat, could get the nod over Lungi Ngidi for that reason alone, but the surprise element he brings to the table isn't to be underestimated, either.   

Possible XI:  de Zorzi, Bavuma, Markram, Rickelton, Stubbs, Bedingham/Mulder, Verreynne, Jansen, Bosch/Ngidi, Maharaj, Rabada.  

Australia  

Australia qualified for their second WTC in a row and that shouldn't come as too much of a surprise for a side who seems to adapt to conditions perhaps better than any other. 

They're certainly in good form with seven wins from their last nine, only losing to India in Perth last winter and drawing with the same opponents in Brisbane just a couple of weeks later.  

Those seven wins were made up of two away in New Zealand, three against India at home and back-to-back wins in Sri Lanka.  

There's no doubt this is a far more experienced line-up than South Africa's and that their players also have far more experience of English conditions and Lords' in particular, than the Proteas do. But it's still a slightly odd-looking side, starting with the fact that Marnus Labuschagne is likely to open (rather than being dropped), meaning there's unlikely to be a place for young dasher Sam Konstas at the top of the order.  

We're also likely to witness the strange appearance of Cameron Green at three (who will play as a specialist batsman and not bowl at all). At six it should be Beau Webster featuring as the all-rounder but they may decide they'd have the extra batting with Josh Inglis there, instead.    

Scott Boland rarely lets anyone down but if he's fully fit, Josh Hazlewood should complete the famed Starc/Cummins/Hazlewood pace trio, meaning Boland can consider himself pretty unlucky yet again.  

Possible XI:  Labuschagne, Khawaja, Green, Smith, Head, Webster/Inglis, Carey, Cummins, Starc, Lyon, Hazlewood/Boland.  

Pitch and conditions  

We're at Lord's of course and it's somewhat fitting that not only is it being played at the home of cricket, but it will be a neutral venue when you consider who's playing.  

The first thing to take note of is the rarity of the draw here in north London. Over the last 10 years, 17 Tests have been played here and there were only three stalemates. With good weather on the horizon and far fewer draws in Test cricket in general than in the past, you can see why the draw is 9/1.  

Australia have a very good record here since 2015, beating England (2015 and 2023), and drawing against the same opponents in 2019.  

In the last 10 years SA have lost one (2017) and won one against England (2022) so both sides have had some joy here at HQ in recent times. The problem for the Proteas though is how little their players who will feature in this match have played here before. The AB de Villiers, Jacques Kallis, Faf du Plessis and Dale Steyns of this world are long gone from the international game.  

I find Lord's one of the trickiest wickets in the world to call so you certainly won't find me trying to predict a par first innings score. Just as examples; the Windies were rolled over for 121 and 136 last summer, then a few weeks later England got 427 first up against Sri Lanka. Australia managed 416 batting first against England in 2023 but a few weeks earlier Ireland were dismissed for just 172.  

An added element of intrigue is Steve Smith's assertion that this is one of the driest Lord's wickets he's ever seen after plenty of sunny days over the past couple of weeks, so it may not be the usual 'battle of the swing' this pitch can sometimes be.  If Smith is right, it's advantage Australia because they have the better spinner in Nathan Lyon. 

Both skippers will probably want to bat first.   

South Africa vs England WTC Final Odds

They say your first instinct is the one that matters and if that was the case here I'd be opposing Australia, who initially looked on the short side at 2/5, implied probability of 71.4%.  

But there are reasons for that price. Now is the time to mention that while SA were beating the likes of the West Indies, Bangladesh and Pakistan to be here, Australia were consistently beating the better teams in the competition. Of course, SA can only beat the teams in front of them and they didn't decide the schedules but maybe their run wasn't so impressive after all when you look at who they played.  

Australia are far superior in the head-to-head with 54 wins and 21 draws from the 101 times they've played each other, only losing 26 times. Over the past 10 years things are much tighter though and it's actually the Proteas who are slightly ahead with five wins and a draw to Australia's four victories.  

But a better squad on paper, more experience of English conditions and Australia's record in finals (irrespective of the format) makes us want to rethink and come to the conclusion that price looks right after all.   

Top Batsmen  

In theory, Lords's is a wicket that takes some getting used to and is one where the cream rises to the top so it's no wonder the likes of Steve Smith (14/5), Usman Khawaja (4/1), Travis Head (4/1) are among the favourites for top Aussie bat, while Bavuma (4/1), Markram (9/2) and Stubbs (9/2) head the betting for South Africa.  

But we've seen that this pitch can be a bit of a minefield too and that with recent scores under 200, there have been plenty of incidences of lower-middle order batters top-scoring at big prices.  

So our strategy is simple: we're picking two big-priced players from each side and any of them winning will have us in profit. In some cases, big profit.  

For South Africa that's the gritty and stubborn Kyle Verreynne (7/1) and our man Marco Jansen, who is a silly price at 28/1 for one of his ability.  

For Australia that's Cameron Green (13/2) whose price is too big given we're pretty sure he'll bat at three and has two Test centuries to his name. The other is Alex Carey (18/1) who has seen it all before, including at Lord's, and would be the chief beneficiary (as far as we're concerned) if there was to be an Aussie batting collapse.  

Keeping stakes sensible, we're splitting our 1 point stake equally between the four.   

First 5 Overs Result (With Draw)  

If long-shots aren't your thing, then you might prefer the 6/4 that the SA openers outscore the Aussie ones after 5 overs.  

Khawaja knows his role but this is likely to be the first time Labuschagne opens in this format so he may well take even longer than usual against the new ball to get going. Bavuma and in particular Zorzi, the likely SA openers, can occasionally score quickly when in the mood, with de Zorzi particularly punishing on anything wide. Two or three boundaries from him early on could well settle this betting heat.  

Both sides have good opening bowlers to cause the Top 2 for each team early trouble. So I'm not sure why the Aussies are such strong favourites here. They may win the match but the Proteas can win this battle within a battle.  

Jamie Pacheco Cricket P/L 2025: 

• Points Staked: 47.5 

• Points Returned: 39.13 

• Current P/L: -8.37 

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket and European Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Cricket Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Cricket hub page...