India vs New Zealand Prediction: Wet conditions can mean 12/5 Bumrah goes boom, boom, boom

India host New Zealand on Wednesday with a start time of 05:00 as they look to build on their recent Series win over Bangladesh. The match is live on TNT Sports 1.  

Jamie Pacheco is putting his faith in 12/5 chance Jasprit Bumrah to be India first innings top wicket-taker, while splitting stakes on two lower middle order batsmen for New Zealand at big odds. Read on Betfred Insights...

India  

India are fresh from beating Bangladesh 2-0 and pretty comfortably in terms of the matches themselves. That said, they did suffer a poor start to the First Test and needed some lower middle-order counter-punching from the Ravis- Ashwin and Jadeja -to steady the ship. And in the second they had to beat the rain as much as the Tigers to get over the line, but they managed that, too.  

It’s a Test too soon for Mohammad Shami, who continues his recovery and will be eyeing up the mouth-watering Australia Series for his return to international action. Akash Deep did little wrong as his replacement so should be play as the third quick, unless they decide to play an extra spinner in Axar Patel.  

They may have a new captain on the day, though.  

Rohit Sharma has unspecified ‘personal reasons’ that may lead to him missing the match. If he does, Shubman Gill will surely open, and Dhruv Patel could well come in either as a specialist batsman or as a keeper with Rishabh Pant playing just as a batsman. The other option is to bring in Sarfaraz Khan, who has an excellent domestic record.  

Jasprit Bumrah, the newly-appointed vice captain, would be in charge if Rohit does miss out.  

Possible XI:  Sharma/Khan, Jaiswal, Gill, Kohli, Pant, Rahul, Jadeja, Ashwin, Axar Patel/Deep, Bumrah, Siraj.  

New Zealand 

Tim Southee resigned the Test captaincy after a 2-0 Series defeat in Sri Lanka with Tom Latham taking over.   

What it means is that Southee is no longer guaranteed a place in the side so if they go with three quicks, it could well come down to a straight choice between him and Ben Sears, with Matt Henry and Will O’Rourke likely to get the first two spots.  

Of great concern is the absence of Kane Williamson through injury. You just don’t replace players like him- although Will Young bating in his place at three will do his best to – but at least former skipper Kane might be available for the Second Test.  

They may well pack their side with spinning all-rounders (Glenn Phillips, Michael Bracewell) and spin bowlers who can also bat (Mitchell Santer) knowing that lower-order runs are always vital in India.  

Possible XI: Latham, Conway, Young, Ravindra, Mitchell, Blundell, Phillips, Santner, Bracewell/Southee/Sears, O’Rourke, Henry.  

Pitch and conditions  

We’re at Bengaluru for this one and it will be a black-soil pitch meaning plenty of turn on offer throughout the match.  

Still, there’s been some rain in the air, the wicket has been under covers and it could be that the first two days are played in overcast conditions, so the seamers will also have their chance to shine. The forecast is pretty poor with a 70% chance of rain on the first two days, which goes down to 40% on day three and 20% on day four. But if those forecasts are correct, we may lose a lot of time in the game to rain.  

You’d have to go back to 2005 for the last time India lost here, a defeat by 168 runs to Pakistan. Since then, they’ve drawn three and won five, so it’s been a happy hunting ground for them here at the home of Virat Kohli’s RCB in the IPL.  

The last time they played here was two years ago in a fair contest between bat and ball against Sri Lanka, with India managing just 252 the first time round and declaring on 303/9 the second time.  

So it may not be quite the run-fest some are expecting with all types of bowler in the game and on of those wickets where you neve truly feel like you’re in.  

India vs New Zealand First Test Odds

India are 6/4, implied probability 40%. Not because the odd-compilers think New Zealand are capable of dropping anchor and batting for long periods (even without Williamson), but rather because the weather may hamper their chances of taking 20 wickets.  

There will be those who will point to their recent Second Test win over Bangladesh where they needed just 121 overs to bowl out their opponents twice, to go with some lightning quick scoring with the bat, after the first two days were totally washed out. But New Zealand are a far more resilient side than Bangladesh and if the tourists are holding out for a draw after rain, they should do a much better job of making sure they get one.  

It's 14/1 New Zealand (6.7%) with the draw a very short 8/13, implied probability 62%. Tempting as that India price is, and it’s not often we can back them at odds-against at home, I don’t want to just be betting on the weather going our way. So best leave it.  

India Top Bowler 

Ashwin (7/4), Jadeja (12/5) and Axar Patel (100/30) should all play and all three are very capable. For the record, Ashwin has more wickets (57) in this cycle of the WTC than any other bowler in the world.  

But all three may have to wait until the second innings or even the next Test to find conditions to their liking.  

It may be a pretty spicy wicket early on with moisture in the pitch and overhead conditions aiding swing, so that can only mean one thing: Jasprit Bumrah is gong to be an absolute nightmare to play against early on.  

For all the talk of the Indian spinners doing the business at home, Bumrah has more than matched them.  

In India’s last five Test matches that Bumrah played in, all of which were at home, the Mumbai Indians man took the following number of wickets in the first innings, earliest one first: 6, 1, 0, 4 and 3.  

The 6, 4 and 3 were enough to be the highest wicket-taker in the first innings so he’s 3/5over the last 10 months or so. Irrespective of that, he’s probably the best fast bowler in the world on a track he knows well. So, in addition to his win rate, that’s a perfectly good reason to snap up the 12/5.