England vs India Predictions: Two good Indian Top Batter options at 4/1 & 6/1

Now we've caught our breath after that wonderful Third Test, it's time to look ahead to the Fourth Test at Old Trafford, starting on Wednesday 23 July, start time 11.00, broadcast live on Sky Sports Cricket.     

Jamie Pacheco talks us through the team news, pitch and conditions and the latest odds, rounding things off with three bets for the match as he brings us his England vs India Predictions for Manchester...  

*You can check out all of our Cricket Odds over at betfred.com

England 

So, England know how to win Test matches in a different way after all. With some accusing them of being something of  one-trick pony who could chase anything in the fourth innings but looked ill-suited to defend a total, they proved plenty wrong, not just by defending a total and bowling India out to win the game, but doing so when India had a very gettable target of just 193 to chase.  

Of course, it may have been a very different story had the India top order got off to a good start. It may also have been a very different story had the tireless Ben Stokes not bowled as well as he did, making a mockery of the theory that he is no longer a genuine all-rounder by taking 3-48 in the fourth innings, which together with some vital runs and two first-innings wickets, saw him deservedly get the Player of the Match award.  

Good for Stokes, good for England, but not so good for our bet on India who really should have won the game after trading at odds-on at various points of the match, including during the chase. Even with just one wicket in hand, they weren't out of it with Ravindra Jadeja still at the crease. 

The form of Zak Crawley and to a lesser extent Ollie Pope remains a concern. Chris Woakes hasn't got going with the bat but four wickets in the match last time out may see him keep his place.  

But they'll certainly have to make one change with Shoaib Bashir, who took the all-important last wicket, out injured.  Liam Dawson is a perfectly good replacement despite being out of the Test arena for years and is a big upgrade to Bashir in terms of batting.  

Confirmed XI: Crawley, Duckett, Pope, Root, Brook, Stokes, Smith, Dawson, Woakes, Archer, Carse. 

India  

India, in turn, will be kicking themselves. The chance to go 2-1 up in a Series away in England doesn't come round too often and though England deserve credit for the way they bowled and fielded, not to mention showing plenty of stomach for the fight, India really should have chased a sub-200 score when you consider they have the likes of Shubman Gill, Rishabh Pant and KL Rahul in the side.  

In truth, only Yashavi Jaiswal was really guilty of throwing his wicket way with a wild swipe at a Jofra Archer delivery early on. But that was maybe an indication they weren't sure how to go about the chase.  

Rahul is in excellent form and Jadeja- more on him in a bit- has also been superb with the bat from number seven, his 61 not out almost getting India over the line as others around him succumbed to the pressure. Bumrah was brilliant in the first innings with 5-74 but a bit quieter in the second.  

Bumrah has been confirmed by team-mate Siraj as playing in this Test, which is a huge boost to India and the right move; no point saving him for the Fifth Test if they lose this one.  

Elsewhere, Ntish Kumar Reddy is out of the Series with injury and bowlers Akash Deep and Arshdeep Singh have also been ruled out of this week's match. With Pant nursing an injury, the obvious move would be for Dhruv Jurel to keep wicket, with Pant playing just as a batsman. If Pant is fit to keep, Sai Sudharsan may return to the middle-order.  

Shardul Thakur may return, or the uncapped Anshul Kamboj may make his debut in place of Deep.   

Possible XI: KL Rahul, Jaiswal, Nair, Gill, Pant, Sudharsan/Durel, Jadeja, Sundar, Thakur/Kamboj, Siraj, Bumrah.   

Pitch, Conditions & Weather Forecast

England have been excellent over the last two decades at Old Trafford. Since losing to Pakistan in 2001, they've played 18 times, winning 14, drawing three and only losing to Australia in 2019.  

This isn't an easy wicket to work out. In 2022 England twice bowled out a decent South African side for less than 200 while scoring 415/9 declared themselves. Last year Sri Lanka got 236 and 326, England got 358 in their first knock and chased 205 pretty easily to win. So, while other sides have struggled in the conditions when batting here, England have enjoyed themselves with the willow in hand, Jamie Smith's superb 111 off 148 last year proof of that.  

As ever, the weather may play its part in Manchester. There's a 50% chance of rain for the whole day on Wednesday before things improve slightly on Thursday, though there could be some showers. Friday and Saturday should see a full day's play with no rain forecast before it most likely returns on Monday.  

England vs India Fourth Test Odds

England are evens, implied probability 50%, with India 2/1 (33.3%) and the draw 5/2.  

It's one of those. You could make a case for all three if you had to.  

England, with an excellent record here at Old Trafford and carrying momentum from the Third Test, aren't a bad price, and some may argue they'll be a better side with Dawson in it.  

India do admittedly have some injury concerns, but the players ruled out aren't necessarily key ones, while the fact they came so close to winning last time suggests a significant improvement in their top order batting could see them do it this time. The availability of Bumrah, is of course, a huge boost.  

Then there's the draw at 5/2. Three out of the last 18 ending in stalemates here at Old Trafford doesn't sound like much but that's not bad going for the modern era and there is after all, rain forecast. If we miss out on almost a day's play through lost overs on Wednesday and Sunday, it may be hard to get a result.  

Either way, if you can argue the toss for all three outcomes at the odds, the obvious play is to not play. 

India Top Batsman  

Perhaps only when Ravindra Jadeja retires from Tests will the cricket fraternity realty appreciate what a truly wonderful player this guy is.  

Pound for pound the best fielder in the world, a tireless and canny spin bowler and a batsman who could well bat in the Top Six for most sides in the world, he's able to hang around for hours if needed, but also capable of shifting gears if necessary and go for some big shots.  

We could be here all day singing his praises but instead, we'll highlight his last four scores, most recent last: 89, 69 not out, 72 and 61 not out. Those are figures Joe Root or Kane Williamson would be pretty happy with.  

As it happens, only that last 61 not out was enough to top score for his side because on the other occasions, at least one player got to 100. But it shows he's in the form of his life, has no fear of England wickets and has found ways to score plenty of runs against his bowling attack. We've seen him at considerably bigger prices than 6/1 in the past, but his form warrants half a point at those odds.  

But Jadeja is more of a 'saver' because a full point is going to be wagered on the equally in-form KL Rahul.  He's currently on 375 runs for the Series from his six knocks, the fourth highest run scorer in the Series, while his 137 in the second innings of the First Test and 100 in the first innings of the Third Test were enough to see him top-score, meaning he's 2/6 for the Series.  This is a man who knows English conditions well and has looked in great touch more often than not, so he should go well here at 4/1.  

A word on Shubman Gill, who is 7/2. Though his 607 runs put him well clear of anyone else from either side, 269 of those came in one knock. And considering he also scored 161 in the same match, you can see that 430 of those 607 came in one game. So he hasn't necessarily been that fluent all the way through the Series. The Rahul/Jadeja split looks the way to go. 

Jamie Smith 1st innings Total Runs - Over 26.5  

If there's one area where England don't have to worry about for the foreseeable future, it's in the wicketkeeper/Number 7 position.  

Since making his debut last summer, Smith has been a revelation, his keeping nice and tidy and his batting even better. He's averaging 55 from 13 Tests which includes two centuries and six fifties at the superb strike rate of 78.  

More to the point, his scores this Series have been: 40, 44, 184 not out, 88, 51 and 8. Only that last 8 wouldn't have been enough to be a winner on the over 26.5 runs line, meaning he's 5/6 in terms of getting to 27 runs this Series. He's also precisely 5/6 to get 27 run sort more in the first innings here and that looks a good bet. Especially when you remember he scored 111 and 39 at this ground last year.  

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Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket and European Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Cricket Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Cricket hub page...