India vs West Indies Prediction: Sai looks too big at 13/2 for top bat honours

Jamie Pacheco previews the India v West Indies Second Test played at Ahmedabad on Friday, with a start time of 05:00 and live on TNT Sports 1.  

Jamie is putting all his attention into the two top batsman markets for the first innings - India and West Indies - with a 13/2 shot in the first and a splitting of stakes at 5/1 and 11/2 in the second as we go through his preview and India vs West Indies Predictions...

*You can check out the Cricket Odds from all of our Cricket Betting markets over on betfred.com

India are a very good Test Match team indeed and that was on show in the First Test against the West Indies.  

Ther bowlers more than did their jobs in dismissing the Windies for just 162 and 146 with the quicks - Mohammad Siraj and Jasprit Bumrah – taking four and three wickets respectively in the first innings, before Siraj came back to take another three wickets in the second innings. His efforts there were however trumped by the four wickets of Ravindra Jadeja, who ended up being the Player of the Match. 

The wickets certainly helped him getting the match gong, but so did the 104 he scored in the only time he batted, one of three centurions, with KL Rahul (100) and top-scorer Dhruv Jurel (125) being the others.  Shubman Gill got 50.  

The biggest surprise of the match, though, wasn't the ease with which India won but rather the omission of Axar Patel. He was our one bet in the whole match – to be first innings top wicket-taker (don't worry you will have got your money back when he didn't play) – but they preferred to go with Kuldeep Yadav, despite Axar's brilliant record at Ahmedabad. Just shows you the strength in depth they've got these days. 

Axar may get a game here in place of either Yadav or maybe Washington Sundar. Bumrah, who got through just 20 overs in the match may be rested as they carry on wrapping up their prize asset with the ball in cotton wool. Especially given how easily they won the First Test.  

West Indies  

This is a really poor West Indies Test team and it's certainly not the first time I've written that over the last 20 years or so.  

A top score of 38 in two innings (from Alick Athanaze) tells you all you need to know about their batting woes, and if they let India get to 448/5d, then it follows that their bowling wasn't much better.  

This isn't the time or the place to go into what's wrong with the West Indies in this format, but I'll repeat what I said last week. How can you not pick a player like Jason Holder, an all-rounder with three Test centuries and 14 fifties to go with 162 Test wickets in 69 matches, when your team is struggling so much?  No, I don't know, either.  

Sure, it doesn't help that both the Josephs (Alzarri, Shamar) are absent through injury as they're just the quick, aggressive sorts to trouble the Indian batsmen, especially with the new ball.  But surely that's even more reason to play someone like Holder when they're not there.  

Pitch and conditions

We're at Delhi for this one and it seems like it will have a black soil base which should mean as good wicket for the first two days, at least, before it starts to take turn.  

But a good wicket with a fast outfield and short boundaries should make for a high-scoring game, at least in the first two innings, so it would be no surprise if at least a couple of Indian batsmen don't notch big centuries.  

Match Winner Odds 

India are available at the slightly ridiculous price of 1/50, implied probability 98%. It's not a ridiculous price because it's too short, it's ridiculous because it looks about right. It's probably the shortest price I've ever seen about a side winning a Test match, so make of that what you will.  

The draw is 14/1 (6.7%) and the Windies win is the same price. It's hard to see anything here other than a comfortable India win, let alone any sort of win. 

*For all the latest and live India vs West Indies Odds then head over to betfred.com 

Top Indian Batsman

A reminder that a tipster's job is to show long-term profits. A high strike rate where 1/2 and 1/3 shots come in often is all well and good and looks great in the short-term. But what happens when a couple of those lose and what you won on those odds-on shots doesn't make up for those losses? Exactly.  

That's not to say you have to go chasing big prices all the time, though that's part of it. It's to say you need to bet at value prices. Which brings me to this market.   

If my life depended on picking the winner of this betting heat, I'd go with Shubman Gill, probably followed by KL Rahul. Why? Because they're India's two best batsmen at the moment.  

Then again, they're 3/1 and 7/2, so the odds-compilers know that as well as I do.  

But at 13/2 you can back Sai Sudharsan. He's only just starting out his Test career - which is why he's the price he is – with only one fifty in seven knocks, but his First Class numbers tell you why he's being picked at the pivotal number three position previously occupied by the likes of Rahul Dravid, Chet Pujara and Virat Kohli.

35 matches: 8 centuries, 8 fifties, average of 54. So, he's got great numbers in First Class cricket and it's surely only a matter of time before he transfers his class to the Test arena.  

Of course, there are dangers elsewhere: Jadeja, Axar and Dhurel, for example.  

But the big advantage Sudharsan has in relation to them is his batting position. Those just mentioned may not have that much time to bat and beat scores by players coming in earlier, if they arrive to the crease at 300/2.  

Top West Indies Batsman  

The strategy for playing the West Indies top-batsman market is a very different one.  

Alick Athanaze is a class player with four Test fifties to his name, including fifties against good bowing sides like England and South Africa, so there's something about him.  As mentioned already, he got their highest score in the match last time out. He's worth half a point at 5/1.  

So is Justin Greaves at 11/2. His scores of 32 and 25 last game weren't bad at all given the circumstances; at least he showed some stomach for the fight knowing he was fighting a losing cause.   

And that 32 was enough to top score in the first innings. Another 30 or so here could well be enough again and he may just find life a bit easier at number seven. Let's hope so. He's worth half a point, too.  

Jamie Pacheco Cricket P/L 2025: 

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