Birmingham Phoenix vs Welsh Fire Prediction: 10/1 Livingstone to star…with the ball

The Phoenix desperately need to win this while the Welsh Fire can't qualify for the Playoffs, so all eyes on the hosts as the action gets underway at Edgbaston on Friday, start time 18:30, live on Sky Sports Cricket.  

Jamie Pacheco talks us through his analysis and his tips for the match and has two Birmingham Phoenix vs Welsh Predictions to tell you about...

*You can check out all of our Cricket Odds over at betfred.com

Birmingham Phoenix  

Last time out the Phoenix chased the Spirit's 127 with 35 balls to spare, giving them their second win of the season in five and vastly improving their net run rate. But the latter may not matter if they don't win this one, and at least two of the three remaining ones. Even then, it might not be enough.  

Liam Livingstone was our 9/2 prediction for top bat last time and though he walked away with the Player of the Match award, it was for his all-round contribution of 45 runs with the bat and 2/26 with the ball. Ironically, the man that beat him to top bat honours – Joe Clarke with 54- had been our pick twice before, but without success.   

So at least the Phoenix still have something to play for, hard as it is to make the Playoffs from here, rather than it being a dead rubber.  

Welsh Fire  

One win in five suggests the great masterplan of building a batting line-up around run machine Steve Smith clearly hasn't worked. He has a top score of 29 and two single digit scores so clearly isn't in great form, or hasn't adapted to the format.  

Of course, the fact they're rock bottom isn't solely down to Smith and no-one else has really impressed either, so plenty to think about ahead of next season in terms of team balance and areas that need some fresh blood.  

Last time out they failed to get up chasing a very makeable 130 against the Southern Brave, falling 4 runs short, typical of what has been a nightmare season for them.    

Pitch and conditions

Two matches at Edgbaston this season produced first-innings scores of 120-odd and the other saw the Invincibles post 180, which was chased by the Phoenix thanks to a Livingstone masterclass. So not an easy wicket to call, but we note all three were won by the chaser, which is significant.  

Key Odds

The Phoenix are 8/13, implied probability of 62%. I think they'll win because they're the better side and have something to play for, but that's a pretty short price in this unpredictable format for a team with just two wins in five, irrespective of who they're up against.  

*You can check out all the latest and live Birmingham Phoenix vs Welsh Fire Odds over on betfred.com

Birmingham Phoenix Top Bowler  

Last time we had Livingstone to star with the bat but this time round, he's worth a gamble to do so with the ball.  

In the last match, he dead-heated with Boult at a big price but the Betfred odds-compilers seem to think it was a one-off because he's 10/1 ahead of this one. That doesn't make much sense because surely, he'll have taken confidence from that performance and may possibly bowl all 20 or at least 15 this time round, which will give him every chance.

Even a dead-heat would have us in serious clover. Oh, did we mention he's the skipper, meaning he can bowl as much as he wants? We have now.  

Welsh Fire Top Batsman  

The quirky Luke Wells hasn't had a great time of it so far, going back to the first match where he was out for a golden duck. Like Smith, he has a top score of just 29.  

But here's what we do know: he's been batting at three all season so assuming that continues, he'll have plenty of balls to face. We also know that he's a huge hitter on his day and even just 20-25 balls faced could be enough to get to 35-40, which could easily be enough, given he has little to beat.  

But above all it's a price of 11/2 that makes appeal given his batting position in particular, making it worth a bet for half a point.  

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Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket and European Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Cricket Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Cricket hub page...