Afghanistan vs England Prediction: Root to run riot in Lahore?

It’s last chance saloon for both England and Afghanistan after both lost their opening-day matches in an all-or-nothing match on Wednesday morning (09:00, live on Sky Sports Cricket).

Jamie Pacheco shares his Afghanistan vs England predictions, complete with the latest odds and team news.

Afghanistan vs England Odds

England are 1/4, meaning an implied probability of 80%. Afghanistan are 11/4 (26%).

In normal circumstances, the outsiders would be a bet in Asian conditions because we think their spin attack is superior to England’s because, well, it just is. The problem is Pakistan are going to have to either post a big total or chase one and if their first game was anything to go by, they’re somewhat unlikely to do either. And we don’t trust England at those skinny odds.

So best to keep your powder dry before the off. If Afghanistan can bat first and make a solid start, it might be worth taking 2/1 in live betting if they’re say 240-3, off 40 overs. If they neither bat first nor make a solid start, then don’t get involved at all.

Team News

Afghanistan

They’re up against it now after a heavy defeat to South Africa on Friday. They conceded a big total (315) and in truth, at no stage did they look like chasing it.

They lost a couple of early wickets, got badly bogged down in the Powerplay overs, failed to rotate the strike and throughout the innings never looked like knowing whether to stick or twist. The exception was Rahmat Shah, who got 90 off 92, played a wonderful knock and was unlucky to be denied a century.

An average middle-order was highlighted as their major weakness in the game’s preview, so it was no great surprise that Shah aside, no-one really got going.

Earlier, Rashid Khan had a rare off-day in going wicketless, while the likes of Fazalhaq Farooqi and Noor Ahmad weren’t much better.

Still, we shouldn’t be too harsh on them. It was a good toss for SA to win and they made the most of it. Plus, the track was harder to bat on in the second-innings but even then, this was far from a vintage Afghanistan performance.

Lose this and they’re out.

Possible XI: Gurbaz, Zadran, Atal, Shah, Shahidi, Omarzai, Nabi, Naib, Rashid Khan, Noor Ahmad, Farooqi

England

Did England lose Saturday’s game? Or did Australia win it?

The general consensus is that despite posting a big total, they still left a good 30 or so runs out there which could have made all the difference.

It was a strange-looking scorecard with Ben Duckett brilliant for his 165 off 143 but only Joe Root passing 50 other than him.

It’s early days yet to be judging, but is there any particular reason why Jamie Smith came in at three, meaning Root- who has batted at three pretty much his whole ODI career – dropped down to four?  If Root is going to bat like Root does, positive but not carefree, isn’t three exactly the position where he should be batting so he can be in for the long haul? Or is all this just Brendon McCullum permanently wanting to reinvent the wheel?

They have bigger problems elsewhere. A half-fit Bryson Carse struggled and has now been ruled out of the tournament with Rehan Ahmed his replacement. He may play in this one.

Mark Wood was quick but expensive, as was Jofra Archer, who for good measure dropped an easy catch.

The Afghans won’t enjoy Wood’s pace but maybe Saqib Mahmood can offer more control.

Possible XI: Duckett, Salt, Smith, Root, Brook, Buttler, Livingstone, Ahmed/Atkinson, Rashid, Archer, Mahmood/Wood

Pitch and Conditions

Lahore was the venue for the Australia v England match, so we know what to expect: plenty of runs. We had both sides down to score 300 runs in that one at 4/1 and they both cleared the line by over 50 runs so; a repeat by England would be no surprise. But we don’t trust Afghanistan to be able to score at those sorts of run rates. So, we’re not interested in Both teams to score 300 runs – a PickYourPunt selection – at 9/4 this time round.

England may decide to chase if they win the toss because they might be a bit spooked that no first innings score is big enough here after what happened on Saturday. But that will play into Afghanistan’s hands, who look better suited to posting totals without scoreboard pressure and unleashing their spinners in the second-innings in the hope the wicket will turn more in the second part of the match. So, it will be interesting to see what happens at the toss.

1pt Joe Root to score 50+ runs @ 2/1

If you read the Australia v South Africa preview you’ll know why we don’t like playing top batsman markets involving teams with strong batting line-ups.  The reason is simple and it’s that a good score from your man can so often be trumped by someone else’s even bigger score. Which is why we preferred Travis Head to score a 50 than winning outright.

The same applies here to Joe Root. A somewhat skinny-looking 7/2 is fraught with danger. Salt or Duckett could be on 100 by the time he arrives at the crease, or he could get 80 only for Buttler to come along and smash 90.

So, we’ll take 2/1 available in the PickYourPunt market that he gets 50+ instead. He scored 68 at the same ground the other day, is England’s best player of spin and should collect plenty of runs with his sweeps and reverse sweeps he loves so much.

0.5pts Mohammad Nabi - Top Home Team Batter @ 28/1

The same can’t be said of Afghanistan’s batting line-up, something we’ve alluded to already.  The openers are normally solid enough but if they’re not, and the middle order is quickly exposed, they could crumble.

Which could open the door to Mohammad Nabi. 28/1 is a seriously big price about a man with over 300 international appearances, who also has two centuries and 17 fifties to his name in this format, where he averages a decent 27.26.

The problem (and the reason for the massive price) is his batting position. Coming in at eight (or seven as he did last time) he may simply not face enough balls to even get to 30 or 40 but that, of course, is factored into the price.

But it’s not impossible that Archer in particular claims a few early wickets and Nabi comes to the crease sooner than expected. As we always say, one only needs one of these to win in a blue moon to be up and this match is just the sort where that could happen.

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers cricket and European football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Cricket Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our cricket hub page...