Australia vs South Africa Prediction: Zampa to show class for hosts

It’s Australia against South Africa in the second round of Group B matches of the Champions Trophy on Tuesday, start time of 09:00, with live coverage on Sky Sports Cricket.

Jamie Pacheco has had some excellent results over the last couple of days and is re-investing in a couple of Aussie steady hands, and a 16/1 chance with better chances than the price suggests. 

Australia vs South Africa Odds

Team News

Australia

Australia did…an Australia, on Saturday. Despite fielding a depleted side and having a huge total to chase against England, they steadied the ship, and in the end made light work of chasing 352. It’s a reminder that this side can get up from losing positions and that they save their best performances for the biggest events, which is a nice trait to have.

Josh Inglis was the big hero with an unbeaten 120 but Matt Short and Alex Carey chipped in with 60s and Marnus Labuschagne played his part with the bat too, after earlier bowling well and taking two wickets. Maxwell took a wicket and helped finish off the game with some typical big hitting.

So Australia are force to be reckoned with but there are a few concerns about their fast bowling resources. Sean Abbott, one of our betting selections for the match, was strangely left out entirely. They could do with bringing him in, possibly at the expense of Spencer Johnson.

Possible XI: Short, Head, Smith, Labuschagne, Inglis, Carey, Maxwell, Johnson/Abbott, Dwarshius, Ellis, Zampa.

Cricket Odds

South Africa

The Proteas did well to beat Afghanistan comfortably, who could have been something of a banana skin and derailed their campaign before it had even begun.

Instead, they posted 315 mostly thanks to a fine century from Ryan Rickleton and a trio of half-centuries from Temba Bavuma, Rassie van der Dussen and Aiden Markram and never looked in danger of letting Rashid and co chase that.

Kagiso Rabada was the pick of the bowlers with 3-36 and only Lungi Ngidi went at more than four a over.

They’re going to be competitive all right but do look a quality fast bowler short.

Heinrich Klassen had an injury in the last match and didn’t play but they’ll be desperate to have him fit for this one because they’re going to need every quick run they can get.

Possible XI: Rickleton, de Zorzi, Bavuma, van der Dussen,/Klassen Markram, Miller, Jansen, Mulder, Maharaj, Rabada, Ngidi.

Pitch and conditions

Rawalpindi looked a pretty good surface when Bangladesh played New Zealand. The only reason the Tigers didn’t post a big score was that they batted poorly and New Zealand, and in particular Michael Bracewell – a 4/1 winner for us for top bowler – bowled really well; it was nothing to do with the wicket.

Ahead of the Australia v England match, we went with both teams scoring 300 runs or more and it won at 4/1 because we felt both sides had a far better batting line-up than bowling attack. And we could say the same now that South Africa are Australia’s opponents rather than England.

The 4/7 on both teams scoring 250+ runs under the Pickyourpunt selections seems like ‘buying money’ (there’s no such thing in betting of course) but we’ll try and get some bigger prices for you than that.

Either way, expect another high-scoring affair here.

Match Odds

Australia are 8/11, favourites, which is implied probability of 58%. South Africa are 11/10, which is 47.6%.

The prices are mostly based on Australia’s reputation as a formidable side in big tournaments and to an extent that’s justified.

But South Africa’s record against Australia has been good in recent years, including beating them in the Group Stages of the last World Cup, although of course, the Aussies went on to win it. You could also make a case for South Africa’s pair of Ngidi and Rabada being better than what Australia have.

There’s nothing wrong with taking the pre-match 11/10 on South Africa. A decent alternative is to hope they bat first on a flat one and settle for 10/11 or evens, before the innings gets under way.

1pt Back Travis Head to score 50+ runs @ 11/8

The problem with these super strong batting line-ups like those of Australia or India is that you can back a player to top score and they’ll get to 70 or so, only for another one or two to top that.

For example, savvy punters may have had Alex Carey at around 11/2 and thought his 68 may have been enough…only for Inglis to come from nowhere and hit that 120.

Which brings us to Travis Head. The brilliant batter missed out on Saturday, scoring just 6, but he rarely fails twice in a row and this is just the sort of track for him. The 3/1 he top scores is a fair price but with so much batting around him, even 80-odd might not be enough to win the heat.

So instead we’ll just worry about him, forget about everyone else and go with him to get to 50, which is 11/8 on the Pick your Punt options.

1pt Back Adam Zampa Top Australia Bowler @ 13/5

The fact that Bracewell took four wickets at Rawalpindi suggests this is one for the spinners, something we often see in the Test matches here, too.

So that opens the door to Zampa (13/5), who apart from anything else, is the only bowler on show at this tournament who gets into Australia’s best XI when everyone is fit. He was decent against England with 2-64, being pipped by Dwarshius’ three wickets, but could go one better. He really is their class act.

0.5pts Back Marnus Labuschagne Top Australia Bowler @ 16/1

However, we’re also having a saver on Labuschagne at a huge-looking 16/1.  He bowled five overs on Saturday and took two wickets including the key one of centurion Ben Duckett, so if he’s thrown the ball and gets to bowl five or six again, another two wickets could see him come very close.