Argentina vs Cape Verde Prediction: Assist market provides value

The current world champions Argentina are in World Cup last 32 action against minnows Cape Verde in Miami Gardens on Friday night (6pm local, 11pm BST, ITV1).

Lionel Messi, who plays his club football for Inter Miami, will be hoping to add to his tally of six goals. Below you can find my Argentina vs Cape Verde Predictions featuring team news and more.

Team News

Having made plenty of changes in their final group game, Lionel Scaloni will reinstate the likes of Messi, Alexis Mac Allister and Rodrigo De Paul to the starting XI. Lautaro Martinez looks to be the preferred striker ahead of Julian Alvarez, while there is some concern over Cristian Romero - who was taken off in the win over Austria with a knee problem.

He will start if fit, with Nicolas Otamendi the back-up option if the Tottenham man doesn’t start. 

Meanwhile, Cape Verde have a doubt over Telmo Arcanjo who missed their final group game, but Dailon Livramento should continue to lead the line. He hasn’t scored at the World Cup yet but this game would be some stage to open his account, having got four in qualifying. 

Argentina vs Cape Verde Odds

This is, on paper, the most one-sided World Cup knockout game we have seen so far. Argentina are 1/6 to win this game in 90 minutes, and just 1/25 to win the tie. Cape Verde are 9/1 to win the tie, and they are 6/1 to continue their run of World Cup draws.

Messi is just 2/5 to score at any time, and you can find plenty of other odds on the link above.

Kevin Pina to get booked  (Sub Switch) @ 19/10

I can’t back any of the match result markets with any conviction given the lack of value, and the fact that Cape Verde have been really tough to beat at this World Cup. Obviously I think Argentina will win this one, and I think I’ve found some value elsewhere. 

My first pick is Kevin Pina to pick up a yellow card. He is the anchor of the Blue Wave’s midfield, and that means he will likely be tasked with stopping Messi one way or another. He made two fouls vs Saudi Arabia and scored against Uruguay so he’s had a busy tournament, but I just don’t think he will be able to fairly stop Messi & Co.

Good price to get booked. 

Lautaro Martinez to get an assist (Sub Switch) @ 16/5

I’m not backing Messi to score at a short price, but I think there is value in backing his fellow striker to lay on an assist. Martinez should start this one and there is no doubt that they look for Messi wherever possible, so I think he is the best price to get an assist. 

Lautaro scored vs Jordan, but I think the real value here comes with Betfred’s Sub Switch offer. Your bet rolls to the oncoming substitute, so you stay in the game, even when your player doesn’t. That means Alvarez, if and when he comes on for Lautaro, could get an assist and settle this bet as a winner. Big price in my mind. 

Betfred's Sub Switch offer rolls your bet to the oncoming substitute, so you stay in the game, even when your player doesn’t.