Ecuador vs Germany Prediction: Third time lucky for La Tri?

The final fixture in Group E sees Germany, already secure in their position as table-toppers, take on Ecuador, who need all three points to keep their World Cup dreams alive, in New Jersey on Thursday (9pm BST, live on BBC One).

Read on for my Ecuador vs Germany predictions, complete with the latest odds and team news - plus a Correct Score selection.

Ecuador vs Germany Odds

Germany, who could field a weaker XI after securing top spot in the group, are 10/11 to earn another three points on the East Coast. That's an implied probability of 52%.

It's 5/2 (28%) about Ecuador earning their first win of the tournament and, in all likelihood, passage to the knockout stage - while the draw is available at 11/4.

Both teams to score is an 8/11 shot, while it's EVS about the alternative. Deniz Undav, who's bagged three in his country's first two matches, is favourite to open the scoring at 5/1.

Team News

Will Germany boss Julian Nagelsmann use this opportunity to rest some players or stay at full-strength to try and keep the momentum going?

A bit of both, is my guess. One thing's for sure - don't expect Nico Schlotterbeck to feature. The Borussia Dortmund centre-back was injured against Ivory Coast and the latest reports aren't positive. Suspected ligament damage, to be precise. Antonio Rudiger can take his place on Thursday and for the rest of the tournament, if those reports are confirmed.

The aforementioned Undav, who's making quite the impression in the face of limited minutes in North America this summer, is tipped to start ahead of Kai Havertz, while I wouldn't be surprised to see Jamal Musiala, who's struggled with injuries for Bayern Munich of late, dropped to the bench. For one of Nadiem Amiri or Leon Goretzka, perhaps?

Further changes are possible, but it's hard to speculate at this time.

Sebastian Beccacece has some big decisions to make, including whether or not to drop Ecuador captain Enner Valencia. The 36-year-old striker is taking the bulk of the flack for his country's failure to record a single goal at this World Cup so far, so he could be replaced for the likes of Kevin Rodriquez or Jordy Caicedo.

Regulars Moises Caicedo and Willian Pacho are irreplaceable, but nothing is guaranteed for the rest of the squad. Change is needed, especially in those advanced positions.

Double Chance - Ecuador or Draw @ 9/10

I know. I know. Ecuador might be the disappointment of the tournament so far. I was one of those labelling La Tricolor as genuine dark horses at this World Cup, but they've made me look stupid. Wouldn't be the first time that's happened, to be fair....

However, I genuinely believe they're good value to get at least something in this one. Hear me out.

Germany's job is done. They're top of the table and can't be displaced, no matter what happens in this or the other Group E clash between Curacao and Ivory Coast. Their concern is about keeping everyone fit and who their Round of 32 opponents are going to be.

Ecuador must get all three points to qualify. There's probably a scenario where just one is enough, but they won't want to leave it to chance.

Beccacece is likely to change something for this one - be it shape, personnel or tactic - which ought to bring about an improved performance. It's needed, especially at the top of the pitch.

Whisper it, but Ecuador on the whole haven't been quite as bad as is being made out. They deserved at least a point against Ivory Coast, and just couldn't score against Curacao. Unfortunately, that's a common theme with this side.

Defensively, they're solid. Solid enough to keep the Germans out on Thursday. Especially a B-team, if that's how Nagelsmann plays it.

It's a lot harder to envisage them getting on the scoresheet, though, so I'm taking the security of Double Chance, which includes the draw, over the 5/2 about an Ecuador win.

Player To Be Carded (Sub Switch) - Antonio Rudiger @ 15/4

It would be a big surprise if Nico Schlotterbeck is declared fit to start. In that case Antonio Rudiger, who replaced him against the Elephants, can take his place in the lineup.

The 33-year-old Real Madrid centre-back has always been a bit of a maverick. Something of a master of the dark arts, too.

If Germany aren't at full strength, and Ecuador bring the intensity you'd expect to see from a team fighting for their lives, the former Chelsea man could be under the cosh for significant parts of this game.

Even with nothing to play for, he won't be afraid of getting stuck in and I can absolutely see him getting into trouble with the referee.

Sub Switch

Pre-Match Bet Builder & Single bets on qualifying Player selections. Selected leagues & markets only. Applies to Price Boosts & Turbo Boosts. Extra-time will count. T&Cs Apply.

Sub Switch

Pre-Match Bet Builder & Single bets on qualifying Player selections. Selected leagues & markets only. Applies to Price Boosts & Turbo Boosts. Extra-time will count. T&Cs Apply.

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