Mexico vs South Korea Prediction: Bad Friday for Jesus

Mexico and South Korea both made winning starts to their 2026 FIFA World Cup campaigns, beating South Africa 2-0 and the Czech Republic 2-1, respectively. El Tri and the Taeguk Warriors face off against each other in the second round of Group A fixtures (Thursday 7pm local, Friday 2am BST, BBC One), with this game taking place at the Estadio Akron in Zapopan, where the South Koreans were so successful last week.

Below are my Mexico vs South Korea predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

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Team News

Lokomotiv Moscow defender Cesar Montes is suspended for Mexico following his late dismissal against South Africa last Thursday. Skipper Edson Alvarez could replace him at the heart of defence, but otherwise, Javier Aguirre is expected to go with the same side that started the victory over Bafana Bafana.

World Cup Odds

South Korea boss Hong Myung-bo could name the same starting XI that serving him so well against the Czech Republic, meaning the likes of Hwang Hee-chan and match-winner Oh Hyeon-Gyu may have to settle for substitute roles again.

Mexico vs South Korea Odds

Mexico are 1/1 favourites, implying a 50% probability of success, with South Korea 3/1, or a 25% chance, and the draw offered at 9/4.

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Player To Score A Header - Johan Vasquez (MEX) @ 25/1

Having been burned by Ladislav Krejci's headed goal for the Czech Republic against South Korea - I backed him for 2+ shots instead, referencing his imposing figure and the Taeguk Warriors' lack of height and concession of three headed goals from their final six qualifiers - I'm going all in on Mexico's centre-back, Johan Vasquez, for El Tri's second group game.

The 27-year-old, who averaged 0.7 shots per 90 for Genoa in the 2025/26 Serie A campaign, scored in both of Mexico's World Cup warm-up friendlies, heading in against both Australia (1-0) and Serbia (5-1).

Prior to Mexico's 2-0 success over South Africa last Thursday, Vasquez had scored in three consecutive appearances for club and country, and the nature of his two for El Tri a couple of weeks ago paints a positive picture for this 25/1 bet.

South Korea only conceded seven shots to the Czech Republic last week, but three of those efforts were headers, with one, from Krejci, putting the Czechs in the lead. Towering Czech Republic midfielder Tomas Soucek also saw a headed goal disallowed for offside, highlighting the Taeguk Warriors' aerial issues.

Vasquez failed to record a shot against South Korea, not helped by Mexico only earning three corner-kicks, but if they win more attacking set-pieces in Zapopan, he looks a good bet to score a header.

Player to Be Carded (Sub Switch) - Jesus Gallardo (MEX) @ 3/1

Lee Kang-in was the star of the show for South Korea against the Czech Republic, pulling the strings and supplying Hwang In-beom for the Taeguk Warriors' equaliser.

The Paris Saint-Germain playmaker was fouled four times in Zapopan, with left-sided centre back Krejci responsible for three of those offences against him.

Mexico left-back Jesus Gallardo, then, could be in for a tough evening up against the 25-year-old.

Gallardo was booked 13 times across the recent Liga MX Apertura (eight) and Clausura (five) campaigns in just 33 combined appearances, while he was shown two yellows across five Gold Cup outings last year.

The 31-year-old only committed a single foul against South Africa last Thursday, but the CD Toluca man is likely to be kept busier against South Korea, with Lee set to pose him big problems on that side.

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