FIFA World Cup 2026 Group I: Fantastic France to go all the way

Group I at the 2026 World Cup looks tasty. You have two-time champions France up against Senegal, Iraq and Norway. This looks to be one of the more competitive groups at this summer's tournament in North America and I have the privilege of predicting how it will all unfold.

Read on for my World Cup Group I predictions, including who I think each team's key player will be.

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France

FIFA world ranking: 1

To win the group: 1/2

Having returned to the top of the FIFA world ranking, a lot of people are investing in France's stocks ahead of the World Cup this summer. Les Bleus have reached the past two finals, going all the way in 2018.

Boss Didier Deschamps is hoping for another strong run in 2026 with another star-studded squad, notably in attacking areas. I don't think any of the other 47 teams can match France's attacking options, which includes Ballon d'Or winner Ousmane Dembele, his Paris Saint-Germain teammates Desire Doue and Bradley Barcola, Kylian Mbappe, Rayan Cherki and Bundesliga Player of the Season Michael Olise.

People have questioned the calibre of their midfield roster, but with quality like that in the final third, they can go out and win games singlehandedly. There is a lot of expectation as a result, but they did well as the defending champions in Qatar four years ago.

They reached the final and lost out to Argentina in what was a pulsating spectacle, so there is also expectation on Lionel Messi and Co. in North America but some people believe that La Seleccion's current crop have hit their peak.

France have proven consistency at the past two editions, so they are once again going to be a tough nut to crack on the big stage.

Key Player: Kylian Mbappe

He may be a polarising figure off the pitch but there is no denying that Kylian Mbappe is a brilliant footballer. His record of 12 goals in 14 appearances at the World Cup finals is a testament of that.

The attacker has just gone through a trophy-less season with Real Madrid and blame for the lack of success and off-field issues this term have been laid at his door. Mbappe still came out with 41 goals in 43 appearances across all competitions for Los Blancos.

I think he's going to be in for another profitable campaign on the world stage and he is 6/1 to win the Golden Boot for the second successive tournament.

Prediction: Winners

France have reached the last two finals and their squad depth remains a huge disadvantage for them. I think they are going to be really difficult to stop in their pursuit of a third world title, especially with the glamorous attacking stars at their disposal.

Football Odds

Senegal @ 13/2

2026 has already been an interesting year for Senegal. Having thought they'd won their second Africa Cup of Nations title in January, CAF later stripped them of their crown and awarded it to Morocco by forfeit.

This came after Senegal players had left the pitch in protest of a penalty being awarded to Morocco in the final. It was a messy situation to say the least but they now have to look forward in hopes of making a splash on the world stage.

The Lions of Teranga reached the round of 16 four years ago in Qatar, but they are yet to emulate their performance from 2002 in South Korea and Japan, when they made it to the quarter-finals.

Pape Thiaw has some exciting attacking players at his disposal, including Premier League stars Iliman Ndiaye and Ismaila Sarr, the latter coming off the back of an impressive campaign with Crystal Palace. There's also Chelsea's Nicolas Jackson, who has just spent the year on loan at Bayern Munich.

Key Player: Ismaila Sarr

Winger Sarr has scored 21 goals in all competitions for Crystal Palace this season and looks like he has evolved to play a starring role for the Lions of Teranga in North America.

Veteran Sadio Mane has been the source of inspiration for Senegal for years but if he makes the squad this summer, this looks to be his last dance at the World Cup and he will be in need of support. I think Sarr is the best-equipped to offer that.

Prediction: I think Senegal are more than capable of making their way to the knockout stage but I have question marks how much further they can progress from there. I think it's a tussle between them and Norway for second place in Group I, but I would be confident in the side coming third securing one of the eigjh extra qualification spots on offer.

World Cup Odds

Iraq

FIFA world ranking: 57

To win the group: 22/1

It's been 40 years since their last appearance at the World Cup finals but Iraq are back on the world stage. The 1986 edition was in Mexico but none of their three fixtures this summer are scheduled for this part of North America.

The Lions of Mesopotamia booked their place at the finals by beating Bolivia in the inter-confederation play-offs and they scored 32 goals across the entirety of their campaign.

A lot of credit has to go to boss Graham Arnold, who only took the post in May 2025. He was thrown right in at the deep end but the players responded to him and together they made history.

Key player: Mohanad Ali 

Iraq's lack of experience at this level leaves them at a huge disadvantage, so they will need to be clinical with the chances they do create. Mohanad Ali has proven to be a potent finisher with 27 goals in 70 appearances for his country.

He has six in his last 12 and has shown that he doesn't need to start to get on the scoresheet. I think this could be a big asset for his team.

Prediction: Sorry Iraq, but as much as I admire your hard work up until this point, you have been dealt a tough hand in Group I. You are up against one of the favourites and two teams who also boast an array of attacking talents.

Norway

FIFA world ranking: 31

To win the group: 11/4

Norway are back at the World Cup finals for the first time in 28 years after a sublime qualifying campaign. The Landslaget won all eight of their group fixtures, scoring an incredible 37 goals in the process.

Sixteen of them came from striker Erling Haaland, whose goalscoring exploits at club level have been well-documented for years. Now he has the opportunity to do what he does best on the biggest stage of all.

Every tournament that rolls around, people are always looking for a dark horse that they can brag about once the dust settles. For a lot of them, it seems Norway are going to be that team this summer based on their performance in qualifying.

The Lovene also boast another clinical forward in Alexander Sorloth, who has bagged 26 goals in 70 appearances for hiss country. Tussling with these two big profiles is Crystal Palace front man Jorgen Strand Larsen, giving Norway good depth in the forward areas.

Haaland's 16 goals in qualifying was twice as many as any other European player, so defences are right to be fearful of what he and his compatriots can do. Arsenal's Martin Odegaard provided seven assists in qualifying and he is a player built for the big occasion.

Stale Solbakken's side like to play a nice and simple 4-4-2, designed to be lethal on the break. It worked like a charm to get them here and I do see it causing problems for some of the big boys in North America this summer.

Key Player: Erling Haaland

France's Mbappe may not be too happy to see Haaland reach the finals as he may see him as a genuine threat for the Golden Boot. Of course this relies on Norway venturing fairly deep into the tournament, but Haaland will most likely be the driving force of anything they achieve.

Prediction: This may be a bold shout but I think Norway could be one of the best long shots we've seen in a long time. They were flawless in qualifying and with the prolific Haaland in their front line, they are always going to have a chance in matches.

I think they have a good chance of taking second in Group I and I would favour them to at least get three more fixtures during the knockout stage.

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