Grand National Trends: Key stats & winning profile cheat sheet

The fields might be smaller, and the fences might be safer, but the Grand National remains one of the most unpredictable handicaps in racing. As a result, modern trends are becoming more consistent due to these new safety measures and the higher-quality fields running in the race.

With a reduced field (34 runners as of 2025) and stronger ratings required to get in, recent renewals have increasingly favoured well-handicapped, high-class stayers rather than complete outsiders. Lets take a look at the Grand National trends ahead of the 2026 race at Aintree on Saturday, April 11.

Grand National 2026 Odds

Key Grand National Winning Profile

Typical Grand National Winner:

• Age: Between 8-9 years old
• Weight: Carrying between 10st 5lb – 11st 8lb
• Official Rating: 137+ (often 145–160+ in the modern era)
• Odds: Usually double-figure, but shorter prices are trending
• Experience: Have had between 4–6 chase wins
• Recent Run: Raced within the last 30–55 days
• Distance Form: They are proven to stay over 3m+

Core Trends Breakdown

Last updated Monday, 6th April 2026.

Here’s our 2026 Grand National Trends cheat sheet, helping you to identify the horses in with a chance in this year’s race when taking the trends and key stats purely into consideration.

Age Trends

• 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 8 or 9 years old
• All of the last 10 winners were aged 9 years old or younger
• Only 5 of the last 17 winners have been aged 10 years or older

The Outliers:

• Noble Yeats won the 2022 race aged 7
• Rare older winners like Neptune Collonges, Auroras Encore and Pineau De Re, who were all aged 11 (winners between 2012-14)

Conclusion:

The prime age, according to the strongest trend in the race, would be 8–9.

This would rule out a host of leading favourites in the betting, including former winner and current race favourite I Am Maximus (10), Favori De Champdou (11), The Real Whacker (10), Panic Attack (10), Mr Vango (10), Marble Sands (10), Grangeclare West (10), Gerri Colombe (10), Final Orders (10), Champ Kiely (10), Beauport (10), Banbridge (10), Answer To Kayf (10), Quai De Bourbon (7), Jordans (7), Jagwar (7).

Official Rating Trends:

• 32 of the last 33 winners were rated 137+
• Modern trend: 145–165+ (higher quality race)

Conclusion:

The cut-off to get into the race is around 150+, so I’m going to lean towards using the modern trend for the 2026 Grand National. Those horses rated higher than 165 in the top 34 entries are I Am Maximus (168), Nick Rockett (167), Banbridge (167), Gerri Colombe (166), Grangeclere West (166), and Haiti Couleurs (166).

Amirite is the first horse entered with a rating lower than 145 (144), but will need another 7 to come out of the race by the declaration stage to take his place.

Betting Odds Trends:

• 25/33 winners returned double-figure odds
• However, 6 of the last 7 winners were 16/1 or shorter.
• 3 of the last 14 winners were sent off as favourite or joint favourite
• Tiger Roll was the shortest price winning favourite in 2019 (4/1) since Poethyln was sent off the 11/4 favourite when winning in 1919

The Outliers:

We still have occasional shocks:

• Nick Rockett was the 33/1 winner in 2025
• Noble Yeats was the 50/1 winner in 2022
• Mon Mome was the 100/1 winner in 2009

Conclusion:

Historically, you’d look to outsiders, but now mid-range prices (8/1–20/1) dominate. The following fit that trend at the time of writing; 

• 8/1 I Am Maximus
• 10/1 Grangeclare West
• 10/1 Jagwar
• 12/1 Iroko
• 16/1 Haiti Couleurs
• 16/1 Monty’s Star
• 16/1 Panic Attack
• 16/1 Johnnywho
• 16/1 Oscars Brother
• 20/1 Nick Rockett
• 20/1 Captain Cody

Experience & Preparation:

• 20/33 winners had 4–6 chase wins
• 31/33 ran within the last 55 days
• 20/33 finished top 4 last run

Many ran at the Cheltenham Festival, which is becoming a more familiar route, with the likes of Johnnywho winning the Ultima and Final Orders winning the Cross Country Chase.

Conclusion:

Fit, in-form, experienced chasers do well. Not over-raced, but not novices either.

Those horses in the top 34 entries who haven’t run in the last 55 days include I Am Maximus (68), Spillane’s Tower (77), Monty’s Star (68), Champ Kiely (68), Beauport (56), French Dynamite (130), Perceval Legallois (100), The Real Whacker (100) and Marble Sands (106).

Course & Distance Factors:

• 29/33 winners had won over 3m+
• 6/11 previous winners had run at Aintree before

Conclusion:

Proven stamina is essential, and Aintree experience is a bonus, not essential.

Repeat Patterns / Notable Angles

• Irish-trained horses are dominating recent renewals
• 7 of the last 9 winners were trained in Ireland
• Willie Mullins has won the last 2 renewals and has 3 wins in total
• Strong staying handicap chase form is key

Trial races:

Cheltenham Festival - Ultima Handicap Chase, which was won by Corach Rambler on his way to winning the Grand National in 2023. This year’s winner of the race was Johnnywho.

Bobbyjo Chase is another strong prep signal; last year’s winner was Nick Rockett before claiming the big race at Aintree, as did I Am Maximus the year before. This year’s winner was Grangeclere West, who finished third in last year’s Grand National.

Run at Easter, the Irish Grand National can also be a nice pointer, with I Am Maximus victorious in 2023 before winning the National in 2024. Haiti Couleurs won the Irish National last year and also won the Welsh National at Christmas.

Increasing trend:

• Higher-class horses winning more often

Negative Trends (Elimination Factors):

Avoid horses that:

• Are older than 11
• Lack stamina beyond 3m
• Have fewer than ~4 chase wins
• Haven’t run in the last 2 months
• Carry extreme weights outside the trend range (historically)