Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction: Raphina to star at Camp Nou

After a wild night in the Champions League on Wednesday, Barcelona’s focus shifts back to the title race in La Liga on Sunday (13:00, live on Premier Sports 1) as the leaders host Rayo Vallecano at Camp Nou.

Our Spanish football expert Mark Sochon provides his Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano predictions, complete with the latest odds and team news.

Victory over Rayo Vallecano would see Barcelona extend their lead at the top to seven points, which would pile the pressure on Real Madrid, who take on local rivals Atlético later in the day.

Barça’s clash with Newcastle on Wednesday followed the same pattern as many of their matches this season. A shaky opening made way for a dominant second half, as the Magpies contrived to self-destruct having looked more than a match for the Catalans for most of the tie.

A final score of 7-2 in favour of Hansi Flick’s team delivered an 8-3 aggregate win to set up an all-Spanish quarter-final against Atleti. The two clubs also meet in La Liga immediately after the international break, so three games against Los Rojiblancos will go a long way towards shaping Barça’s season from this point.

On the surface, there is plenty for Blaugrana fans to be excited about. Their team is playing with the attacking style they crave and despite the obvious risks attached with their high line, they are favourites to clinch back-to-back league titles, while the last four of the Champions League is within reach again.

One player who has really impressed over the past week has been Raphinha. The Brazilian bagged a hat-trick in the 5-2 win over Sevilla last weekend, before scoring twice and assisting twice against Newcastle.

Given the way they’re playing, a fixture against Rayo Vallecano shouldn’t spark any fear into the home dressing room. However, the Madrid-based club have been a bogey team for Barça in recent years. Since their promotion in 2021, each side has won three of the nine meetings, while there have been three draws.

The circumstances are a little different this time around in that Rayo are also playing European football. They were in action on Thursday night in the Conference League, securing progress into the quarter-finals despite a 1-0 home defeat against Turkish side Samsunspor.

Iñigo Pérez has tended to prioritise the league over the continental action this season, but he did field a strong lineup in that match, despite a two-goal first-leg lead. Rayo were also in action on Monday against Levante in La Liga, so this fixture rounds off a busy week and there may not be a great deal of gas left in the tank.

The visitors can take confidence from a six-game unbeaten run in the league. That started with a 3-0 victory over Atleti, in a game played at Leganés’ Estadio Butarque due to problems with the pitch in Vallecas.

Four of their five league outings since then have ended level, but Rayo have moved onto 32 points and they’ve got some breathing space on the bottom three. Pérez will likely view this game as something of a free hit, but his team cannot be completely discounted having drawn the reverse fixture 1-1 earlier in the campaign.

Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano Odds

Barcelona are the 2/9 favourites to record another home victory. You can back the Draw at 11/2, while Rayo Vallecano are given a 9/1 chance of leaving Camp Nou with three points.

If you’re expecting the Catalans to win big at home again, they’re priced at 11/8 with a -2.00 Handicap. Barça to win and Both teams to score is available at 11/8, while you can back the hosts to score over 4.5 goals at home for the third time in eight days at 7/2.

The recent history of this fixture would suggest there’s little prospect of that. Rayo have only conceded four goals across their last four visits to Barcelona, and they’re on offer at 23/20 with a +2.00 Handicap this time around. You can back the visitors to win either half at 16/5.

Lewandowski leads the way as 3/1 favourite to score first, while the Polish striker is priced at 8/13 to net at anytime. You can also back Lamine Yamal to get on the scoresheet at 4/5.

From a visiting perspective, De Frutos is the man to watch. He’s given a 10/1 chance of scoring first, while the Spain international is priced at 13/5 to score at anytime.

Team News

Barcelona had an injury scare over goalkeeper Joan García in midweek, but the news since then has been positive and he’s likely to start this game. Eric García is also a fresh fitness concern and is rated doubtful.

The hosts have four confirmed absentees. Those are Andreas Christensen, Frenkie de Jong, Jules Koundé and Alejandro Balde. Only light changes are expected from the side that started on Wednesday, with Ferran Torres and Dani Olmo among those hoping for recalls.

As for Rayo, there may be more extensive rotation as they play their third game in seven days. They are in pretty good shape on the selection front, so Pérez is not short on options, although centre-back Nobel Mendy serves a suspension.

Jorge de Frutos should lead the line. The winger has been converted into a striker this season, and he has scored 10 times in 26 league outings.

Raphina to score anytime @ 9/10

There were actually one or two doubts about Raphinha’s form and fitness levels earlier this month, but the Brazilian has looked back to his blistering best over the past week. After five goals in two matches, he’ll be full of confidence heading into this game and there’s little reason for Flick to rest the winger, given the international break immediately follows it.

Injuries have prevented the ex-Leeds man from getting close to the 31 goals he scored across La Liga and Champions League football last term. However, he is still scoring at a very healthy rate of a goal every 110 minutes in the Spanish top flight this term. That points to value in backing Raphinha to get on the scoresheet at odds of 9/10 here.

Rayo Vallecano over 3.5 corners @ 6/5

Pérez is viewed as one of the brightest young coaches in Spain, and he is one of the few that has found ways to effectively counter Flick’s Barcelona over the past two seasons. The corner counts from the recent meetings highlight how even some of those have been.

Rayo won nine corners when these clubs met earlier in this campaign, and they’ve at least matched Barça’s total in each of the last three meetings. The Madrid club have won five or more corners in all of the four most recent encounters.

The hosts do have spells in games when they look vulnerable, so this match is unlikely to be just one-way traffic, and I’m backing Rayo to win over 3.5 corners at 6/5.

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