Athletic Club vs Barcelona Prediction: Back Barca to win it late

Two of the three ever-present La Liga clubs clash in Bilbao on Saturday night, with Barcelona bidding to extend their advantage at the top of the table. (20:00, live on Premier S;orts 2).

Our Spanish football expert Mark Sochon provides his Athletic Club vs Barcelona predictions, plus the latest match odds and team news.

Both sides head into this game on the back of Copa del Rey semi-final exits in midweek. However, the circumstances surrounding their respective demises could not have been more different.

Trailing 1-0 from the first leg, Athletic Club barely laid a glove on their Basque rivals Real Sociedad at the Reale Arena on Wednesday night. They failed to create a single big chance across the 90 minutes and ended up suffering a 2-0 aggregate defeat as a result of a controversial late penalty.

By contrast, Barcelona were absolutely outstanding against Atlético Madrid as they chased a miracle comeback after losing 4-0 in the first leg at the Estadio Metropolitano. They dominated the return clash, having 21 shots and 15 corners as Los Rojiblancos desperately tried to protect their advantage.

Ultimately, Barça fell just short of turning the tie around, with their 3-0 victory not enough. The Catalans will fail to win a domestic trophy for the first time under Hansi Flick as a result. However, they still left the pitch to a standing ovation after one of their most complete performances of the season.

With Pedri, Raphinha and Lamine Yamal on the pitch, they are more than a match for anyone, and that bodes well for their upcoming Champions League knockout campaign. However, they’re much less convincing when one or two of those players are missing, and it’s going to be a delicate balancing act for Flick as he tries to keep his stars in peak condition over the coming weeks.

This is on paper one of their toughest remaining fixtures, although it’s true that San Mamés has not been the fortress of old for Athletic this season.

It has been a really disappointing campaign overall for Los Leones, and it looks set to end with Ernesto Valverde leaving the club for the third time. The Basque giants found it tough going in the Champions League, and they’re only hovering in mid-table in La Liga, although they remain in contention for one of the lesser European places.

They have won three of their last four league fixtures. However, all of those victories were against teams that came up in 2025 and are struggling this term. Since a 1-0 victory over Mallorca in the first week of October, Athletic have won just one league match against a non-promoted club. That was a 1-0 victory over Atlético Madrid in December in what was perhaps their best display of the campaign.

The hosts will need to find that level if they’re to compete on Saturday, but they’re at a slight disadvantage having had 24 hours less to prepare for the game. Valverde will be hoping striker Gorka Guruzeta can continue his impressive recent form, with the 29-year-old netting six goals in his last 10 appearances.

Athletic Club vs Barcelona Odds

Barcelona are the favourites to win this match at 3/5. You can back the Draw at 16/5, while Athletic Club are on offer at 18/5.

If you fancy the home team, you can also back them to score over 1.5 goals at 7/4. They’re given a 6/4 chance of winning either half.

Barcelona are priced at 6/4 to score over 2.5 goals. You can back the visitors to win and both teams to score at 7/4. Meanwhile, Flick’s men are on offer at 11/4 to win both halves.

Lewandowski leads the way as the 10/3 favourite to score first, while he’s priced at 9/10 to score anytime. It’s unclear whether the Polish striker will be preferred to Ferran Torres up top, though. Backing Yamal to score anytime may be a safer pick at odds of 6/5, following his first career hat-trick last weekend in a 4-1 win over Villarreal.

From a home perspective, Guruzeta is priced at 13/2 to score first, and 15/8 to score anytime. You can also back Iñaki Williams, who fired in a screamer in a 1-1 draw against Rayo Vallecano last weekend, to get on the scoresheet at odds of 5/2.

Team News

While there will be some fatigue in the home camp, there is less reason for Athletic Club to rotate given they no longer have any cup commitments. That suggests there will only be a few changes to the team that started in San Sebastián, with goalkeeper Unai Simón and midfielder Íñigo Ruiz de Galarreta expected to return.

Nico Williams remains their most notable absentee with an ongoing groin issue. Meanwhile, Maroan Sannadi and Beñat Prados are long-term absentees.

With a tough Champions League trip to Newcastle to come on Tuesday, Flick may hold some of his Barcelona stars back after the huge shift they put in for 90 minutes in midweek. Pedri has only just returned to fitness and may drop to the bench, while the German will weigh up whether it’s wise to hold any of his other key players back.

It has been a bad week on the injury front for the Catalans, with first-choice full-backs Alejandro Balde and Jules Koundé picking up knocks that will keep them both out for several weeks. Robert Lewandowski is fit again, but Frenkie de Jong and Andreas Christensen are unavailable once more.

Bet Builder: Gorka Guruzeta 1+ shots on target & Lamine Yamal 3+ shots @ 1/1

Barcelona could again be defensively vulnerable in this match given the likelihood that at least one of Pedri and Raphinha will be rested. When those two are missing, they struggle to dominate games and pen their opponents back, which leads to their high line being exposed on the break more frequently.

That could be good news for Guruzeta, who is averaging 2.4 shots per game in La Liga and has netted braces in each of his last two home league appearances.

Yamal will also be full of confidence after scoring eight times in his last 10 matches. He’s second to only Kylian Mbappé with an average of 4.4 shots per game in the Spanish top flight, and is very rarely rested by Flick.

Given that, I’m using the Bet Builder to back Guruzeta to have 1+ shots on target and Yamal to have 3+ shots at 1/1.

Second half result - Barcelona @ 9/10The visitors are expected to leave some key players on the bench here, but they do have all of their attackers available. That means they’ll have real quality to turn to after the interval, regardless of who starts in Bilbao. The same can’t be said of Athletic, who have struggled to cope with quick turnarounds such as this during the campaign due to their lack of depth.

Barcelona have been a really strong second-half team this season. They’ve scored 39 times after the interval in La Liga, conceding on only nine occasions. By contrast, Athletic have a second-half goal difference of -5.

I can see those trends continuing here, and I’m backing the away team to win the second half at 9/10.

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