Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid Prediction: Mark picks out a 9/5 Bet Builder

There's huge pressure on Real Madrid to bounce back from successive defeats in La Liga when they travel to Celta Vigo on Friday night (20:00, live on Disney+).

Our Spanish football expert Mark Sochon provides his Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid predictions, plus the latest match odds and team news.

Anything less than a win for Real here will leave Barcelona firmly in control of a title race they already lead by four points.

Losses against Osasuna and Getafe have seen Los Blancos surrender the initiative, with a six-point swing taking place over the past fortnight. Álvaro Arbeloa is suddenly feeling the heat, and there is serious potential for his team’s season to completely unravel over the next two weeks.

The way they are playing, there is little prospect of Real Madrid beating Manchester City in the Champions League round of 16. They’ll also need to find an extra gear fast if they want to stay on Barça’s tail in the league.

All of their last three performances have been poor. Osasuna created the better opportunities in a deserved 2-1 win at El Sadar, while Benfica did likewise at the Santiago Bernabéu in the second leg of their European play-off, although goals from Aurélien Tchouaméni and Vinícius Júnior sealed a narrow win for the Spanish giants.

Vinícius’ form has been one of the few positives in recent weeks, with the Brazilian scoring six times in his last six appearances in all competitions. However, even he was powerless to inspire his side as they slumped to a shock 1-0 home defeat against Getafe on Monday. Real Madrid had won all of the previous 16 meetings between the clubs on their own ground, so even in the context of this unconvincing campaign, it was still a wildly unexpected result.

It doesn’t get any easier for Los Blancos, who now face a rare Friday night match. They take on an in-form Celta Vigo side that has won four in a row in all competitions.

The Galicians have been one of the few outright success stories in La Liga in the past two years. Claudio Giráldez has done a fantastic job in turning around their fortunes, with a youthful squad securing a seventh-place finish and Europa League qualification last term.

They’re one place higher up this time around, and they’ve had enough options across the pitch to successfully juggle their domestic and European commitments. A 3-1 aggregate victory over PAOK in the play-off round has set up a Europa League round-of-16 tie against Lyon which starts next Thursday.

With a decent break before that match, Giráldez should still be in a position to put everything into trying to complete what would be a famous double over Real Madrid. It was a 2-0 Celta win at the Bernabéu in December that left Xabi Alonso on borrowed time in the Spanish capital, with Williot Swedberg scoring twice in an impressive victory for the visitors.

The 38-year-old was credited with plotting the perfect gameplan on that occasion, with his team operating cautiously for much of the 90 minutes, but attacking in numbers at the right moments.

Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid Odds

Despite all of their problems, Real Madrid are still the 23/20 favourites to win this game. You can back Celta Vigo to defeat Los Blancos for the second time this season at odds of 21/10, while the Draw is priced at 5/2.

If you like the look of the hosts, Celta are also available at 13/8 to score over 1.5 goals. They’re priced at 6/5 to score the game’s first goal, while you can back Both teams to score at 4/6.

The visitors do have a positive recent record on this ground, and they are given an 11/4 chance of winning the game to nil, while you can back Real Madrid to win and over 2.5 goals at 2/1. Arbeloa’s side are priced at 1/1 to score over 1.5 goals.

Celta frontman Borja Iglesias is the 4/1 favourite to score first, while he’s priced at 5/4 to score anytime. You can also back Ferran Jutglà to build on a great strike at Girona by netting anytime at odds of 9/5.

From a visiting perspective, Vinícius should again partner Gonzalo García up front. The former is given a 9/2 chance of scoring first, while he’s on offer at 7/5 as an anytime goalscorer bet. You can back Gonzalo to get on the scoresheet at odds of 6/4.

Team News

Pablo Durán is the only injury doubt for the home team, with the young forward currently dealing with a knee issue. Otherwise, Giráldez should have a full squad to pick from.

The Celta boss rotated his lineup for the 2-1 victory at Girona last weekend. He’s expected to recall the likes of Borja Iglesias, Marcos Alonso and Carl Starfelt here.

It has been a miserable week for Real Madrid on the selection front, with Rodrygo tearing his ACL. The Brazilian will now miss the rest of the season and the World Cup.

Kylian Mbappé, Jude Bellingham, Éder Militão, David Alaba and Dani Ceballos are also currently out injured. In addition, the visitors are missing three players due to suspension at Balaídos. Álvaro Carreras and Dean Huijsen picked up their fifth bookings of the season against Getafe, while Franco Mastantuono was sent off late on.

Celta Vigo to win either half @ 10/11

Real Madrid will be missing at least five of their regular starters here, and even with some of those players they’ve been very unconvincing in recent weeks. It’s tough to pinpoint any genuine improvements that have taken place under Arbeloa, and this is a difficult fixture, and there’s every chance they’ll come unstuck again.

Celta have enough players that are comfortable on the ball to dominate spells of this game against a Real Madrid side that is lacking creativity. They regularly found ways to get in behind the opposing backline in the reverse fixture, and we should see more evidence of that on Friday, with Los Blancos arguably missing three of their first-choice back four.

Given that, I’m expecting another tough night for Arbeloa and his team, and I’m backing Celta to win either half at odds of 1/1.

Bet Builder - Vinicius Junior 1+ shots on target & Celta Vigo to have over 3.5 shots on target @ 9/5

Without Mbappé or Bellingham, Real Madrid’s main attacking plan is to give the ball to Vinícius and hope he can produce a moment of magic. He’s averaging 2.8 shots per game in La Liga and has hit the target in each of his last seven matches in all competitions.

At the other end, Thibaut Courtois will be anticipating another busy night. Celta hit the target on five occasions when these sides met in Madrid a few months back, while even a defensively-minded and low-scoring Getafe team had three shots on target at the Bernabéu on Monday.

With that in mind, I’m using the Bet Builder to back Vinícius Júnior to have 1+ shots on target and Celta Vigo to have over 3.5 shots on target at 9/5.

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