Alaves vs Real Sociedad Prediction: Extra time looms large in Copa del Rey quarter-final clash

It's quarter-finals time in the 2025/26 Copa del Rey, and one of the two games on Wednesday night (20:00 GMT, Premier Sports Player) sees Deportivo Alaves take on Real Sociedad at the Estadio Mendizorrotza in Vitoria-Gasteiz.

Below are my Alaves vs Real Sociedad predictions, alongside all the latest team news and match odds.

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Team News

Nikola Maras (Mirandes), Moussa Diarra (Anderlecht) and Carlos Vicente (Birmingham City) all left Alaves during the winter transfer window. Vicente’s absence will be most keenly felt on Wednesday as the 26-year-old winger had scored five goals and registered three assists in four Copa del Rey appearances this season.

Denis Suarez (knee) misses out for Eduardo Coudet’s side in midweek due to injury.

Football Odds

As for Real Sociedad, Takefusa Kubo, Ander Barrenetxea (both muscle), Inaki Ruperez (knee), Arsen Zakharyan (calf) and Unai Marrero (unspecified) are confined to the Real Sociedad medical bay.

Croatian defender Duje Caleta-Car, who was suspended for Sunday’s 1-1 draw at Athletic Club, is free to return to action on Wednesday.

Alaves vs Real Sociedad Odds

Alaves, who have won the last three head-to-heads, the latest of which was a 1-0 home victory in La Liga last December, are 2/1, or a 33.3% chance, to triumph in regulation time on Wednesday, while Real Sociedad are 6/4 favourites, implying a 40% probability of success.

The draw, which would send the tie to extra time, is offered at 2/1, while Alaves and Real Sociedad are 1/1 and 8/11, respectively, in the To Win Tie market.

Player to Receive a Card - Jon Gorrotxategi (RSO) @ 21/10

Real Sociedad midfielder Jon Gorrotxategi has received five yellow cards in 20 La Liga appearances (17 starts) this season, and he's averaging 1.3 fouls per 90 in the competition.

One of the Spaniard's cautions came against Wednesday's opponents, Alaves, in December for a foul on Suarez.

Today's Football Fixtures

The 24-year-old was booked in his final appearance of the calendar year against Levante, which earned him a one-game suspension, and after serving that in Real Sociedad's first game of 2026, a 1-1 draw with Atletico Madrid on January 4, Gorrotxategi has avoided a card in five consecutive matches.

I fear that run will come to an end on Wednesday, though, with midfield counterparts Pablo Ibanez and Antonio Blanco among the Alaves players who are well versed in drawing fouls.

Ibanez and Blanco are averaging 2.8 and 1.1 fouls won per 90, respectively, in La Liga this season, while the likes of Carlos Alena (1.8 p/90), Toni Martinez (1.4 p/90) and Abde Rebbach (2.1 p/90) are sure to be buzzing around the Real Sociedad man, too.

Match Result - Draw @ 2/1

I'm finding it tough to separate these two teams.

On the one hand, you have an Alaves side that have won three of their last four games and are unbeaten in their last four at home (W3, D1).

On the other hand, you have a Real Sociedad outfit that are unbeaten in their last eight matches (W4, D4), half of which have taken place away from home (W2, D2).

The last four head-to-heads have been decided by a single goal, and in December's league meeting at the Estadio de Mendizorroza, it was a Lucas Boye spot-kick that was the difference.

This could be a cagey cup tie, and so I'm going down the middle and backing a draw, which would mean extra time in Vitoria-Gasteiz.