Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction: Mbappe to keep up scoring form

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Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Preview:

Real Madrid return to action on Sunday with a local derby against Rayo Vallecano in La Liga. The home players will be expecting another frosty welcome from their own fans after a dismal display in Lisbon in midweek. 

A 4-2 defeat against Benfica saw Los Blancos miss out on a top-eight finish in the Champions League. Álvaro Arbeloa's team looked defensively vulnerable throughout, and late red cards for Raúl Asencio and Rodrygo capped a miserable encounter from a Madrid perspective, on a night when only a point was needed to secure direct entry into the round of 16. 

The Spanish giants will now face a reunion with José Mourinho and Benfica in the play-off round in a few weeks' time, but only after they've played three more league games. 

While Arbeloa's first outing also ended in a humiliating cup defeat against Albacete, there were more encouraging signs in between those two losses. 

A 2-0 victory at high-flying Villarreal in La Liga last weekend was viewed as one of Real Madrid's most assured displays of the campaign, certainly from a defensive perspective. The perception was of a team that was finally working hard off the ball, and they were rarely troubled by the Yellow Submarine in a tough fixture that historically has often gone badly for the side from the Spanish capital. 

There were even signs of the partnership between Vinícius Júnior and Kylian Mbappé blossoming at last in the 6-1 demolition of Monaco the week before last. However, the Benfica match was unquestionably a major step back, and the toxic atmosphere that greeted the Real Madrid players in their last home league game against Levante, may well be repeated on Sunday. 

Rayo Vallecano will be hoping to feed off that, and they are normally competitive in this fixture. Since going down to a 10-2 defeat at the Bernabéu under Paco Jémez in 2015, Los Franjirrojos have not lost by more than a single goal on any of their five trips to play their big city neighbours. 

They also held Los Blancos to a 0-0 draw earlier this season, while four of the last five meetings overall have finished level. That would suggest this won't necessarily be a stroll in the park for the home team. 

However, Rayo's current form is really poor. They're going through their toughest period since the appointment of Iñigo Pérez in 2024, and the 38-year-old coach has not found any answers of late to bring their current slump to an end. 

Heading into this match, Pérez's side have won just one of their last 11 games in La Liga. They are now very much in the relegation conversation, having clinched a surprise European place last term. 

Their last two performances have been particularly concerning. Rayo sunk to a 3-0 defeat in Vigo against Celta on matchday 20, before two stoppage-time goals saw Osasuna win 3-1 in Vallecas last weekend. 

Team News: 

Despite that 4-2 defeat in Portugal on Wednesday, Arbeloa is not expected to make many changes. Real Madrid don't play in either of the next two midweeks, so there is no need for rotation, with Rodrygo and Eduardo Camavinga the only players seriously pushing to break into the starting lineup. 

There are still four defensive injury absentees for the hosts to contend with. The game will come too soon for Éder Militão, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Antonio Rüdiger, and Ferland Mendy. 

As for Rayo Vallecano, they may hand a full debut to January signing Ilias Akhomach, who has joined on loan from Villarreal. That may see them use winger Jorge de Frutos as a striker again, with their long-standing problems up front yet to be resolved. 

Unai López and Abdul Mumin are both out injured, but Andrei Ratiu and Iván Balliu both look to have recovered from recent fitness issues and should feature.