Villarreal vs Real Madrid Prediction: The home side can give Madrid a scare

| Saturday 24th January 2026, 7:55am

Saturday 24th January 2026, 7:55am

It is all going off in Madrid as Real have given their manager the old heave ho and brought in a caretaker until the end of the season. Four straight victories in the league however means they go into this round of matches just a point behind leaders Barcelona. They face a tough challenge however as they travel to Villarreal to take on another top side. La Liga TV will broadcast this match in the UK with kick-off set for 20:00 this Saturday night.

Our Spanish Football tipster Mark Sochon brings us the Team News, Match Odds and his two Best Bets for the match. Let's check out his Villarreal vs Real Madrid Predictions here on Betfred Insights...

Villarreal vs Real Madrid Betting Tips

Villarreal to win either half @ 19/20
Both teams to score & Alberto Moleiro 1+ shots on target @ 5/6 via Bet Builder

*odds correct at time of publication

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*You can check out all the Football Odds and markets on offer with us over at betfred.com

Match Preview:

There's a top-three showdown in La Liga on Saturday, with Villarreal targeting a victory over Real Madrid that would at least put them in the conversation when it comes to the title race.

It has been a weird season for the Yellow Submarine so far, with their dismal Champions League record of just one point from seven games, in complete contrast to their excellent La Liga campaign. An early Copa del Rey exit against second-tier Racing Santander adds to the mystery when it comes to trying to pass judgement on Marcelino's team.

Overall, they have certainly made strides forward, and they've consistently had too much for the majority of their domestic opponents. With a counter-attacking style that relies heavily on wide players such as Alberto Moleiro, Tajon Buchanan and Nicolas Pépé, they launch quick breaks and get good service to their forwards.

There have also been significant improvements at the back, with summer signings Renato Veiga and Santiago Mouriño both impressing. That has contributed to Villarreal boasting the third-best defensive record in the Spanish top flight this term, compared to only the joint-11th best last season.

Marcelino's men do head into this match on the back of a poor week. A 2-0 league defeat at Real Betis was followed by a 2-1 home loss against Ajax in Europe, although there was nothing riding on that game from a Villarreal perspective, with some key players held back for this weekend showdown.

Real Madrid did go strong in the Champions League, and Álvaro Arbeloa would have been encouraged by his team's attacking display in a 6-1 victory over Monaco. Kylian Mbappé added two more goals to his tally, but the biggest positive for the recently appointed coach would have been a much improved display from Vinícius Júnior.

The Brazilian set up two goals, and also scored himself. That was the 25-year-old's first goal at the Santiago Bernabéu since a brace in the reverse fixture against Villarreal back in early October, which ended in a 3-1 win for Los Blancos.

There was also a goal for Jude Bellingham, and two assists for Fede Valverde against Monaco. Along with Vinícius, those were the other two main targets as Real Madrid fans vented their anger at their team during the 2-0 win over Levante last weekend. To their credit, the trio responded well, although they'll need to perform on a much more consistent basis if they're to fully win over an impatient fanbase that expects success.

The other major positive for Real Madrid over the past week came in the form of an unexpected defeat for Barcelona. Just one point separates the two great rivals now, meaning Arbeloa's side will at least temporarily go top if they win this match.

Team News:

Suspensions for two regulars hamper Villarreal's chances on Saturday night. Midfielder Santi Comesaña saw red against Betis last weekend, while Mouriño picked up his fifth booking of the campaign. The hosts are also missing long-term injury absentees Logan Costa, Willy Kambwala and Pau Cabanes.

In better news for Marcelino, Pape Gueye is available and set for his first minutes in La Liga since way back in November. The Senegalese midfielder should take Comesaña's place in the team, one week after scoring the only goal in the final of the Africa Cup of Nations.

As for Real Madrid, they're also short in the centre of the park as a result of a suspension for Aurélien Tchouaméni. Defenders Éder Militão, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Antonio Rüdiger and Ferland Mendy also miss out due to injuries again.

Rodrygo has been passed fit, and could feature after missing the Monaco clash. Arbeloa must also decide whether Dani Carvajal is ready to start, after the veteran right-back recently returned from a lengthy lay-off.

Villarreal CF vs Real Madrid Lineups (Predicted)

Villarreal CF: Junior, Navarro, Veiga, Foyth, Pedraza, Buchanan, Parejo, Gueye, Moleiro, Perez, Mikautadze
Real Madrid: Courtois, Valverde, Huijsen, Asencio, Carreras, Guler, Camavinga, Bellingham, Rodrygo, Mbappe, Vinicius

Match Odds:

Real Madrid are priced at 1/1 to leave the Estadio de la Cerámica with all three points. Villarreal are on offer at 12/5, while the Draw is available at 11/4.

The Yellow Submarine do tend to compete in this fixture. They've only lost one of the last eight meetings between the clubs on this ground in La Liga. You can back Villarreal or Draw at 4/5 in the Double Chance market here, while the hosts are priced at 6/5 to score over 1.5 goals.

If you're expecting the visitors to kick on following a big win on Tuesday, Real Madrid are priced at 12/5 with a -1.00 Handicap. They are also on offer at 9/4 to score over 2.5 goals, while Los Blancos are available at 5/4 to score in both halves.

With 32 goals already this term in all competitions, Mbappé is the clear favourite in the Goalscorer markets. You can back the Frenchman to score first at 5/2, while he's on offer at 4/6 to score anytime. Vinícius is priced at 6/4 to get on the scoresheet for the second time in five days.

Villarreal are likely to go with Gerard Moreno and Georges Mikautadze up top. You can back those players to score anytime at 13/8 and 6/4, respectively.

*You can bet on and check out all of our Villarreal vs Real Madrid Odds with our full betting markets on betfred.com

Villarreal CF vs Real Madrid Stats

Both teams currently sit in Champions League places (3rd vs 2nd)
Real Madrid have been awarded the most penalties in La Liga with nine. Villarreal have been given just the one.
At 0.85 (Real Madrid) and 1.00 (Villarreal) these are two of the top three teams for Goals Against per 90 minutes in La Liga.
Villarreal have the best record in Spain's top flight for both Goals per Shot at 0.15 and Goals per Shot on Target at 0.39.

Bet 1 - Villarreal to win either half @ 19/20

We are only three games into life with Arbeloa as Real Madrid boss. It's not a reign many foresee lasting for very long, and his decision-making has already been criticised.

A much-rotated team was sent packing from the Copa del Rey in his first game against second-tier Albacete. He also opted for a strangely cautious lineup at home to Levante, before rectifying that after a lacklustre first-half display by bringing on Arda Güler at the break. Even against Monaco, Los Blancos had to face 20 shots across the 90 minutes, with the strong suspicion being that a better team would have punished them.

With some key players fresh from midweek rests, Villarreal should be really competitive against an injury-ravaged Real Madrid defence that has conceded seven times in their last four matches. Backing the hosts to win either half looks good at 19/20.

Bet 2 - Both teams to score & Alberto Moleiro 1+ shots on target @ 5/6 via Bet Builder

One of the brightest young players so far this season in La Liga has been Alberto Moleiro. The 22-year-old made a summer move to Villarreal from Las Palmas and has netted eight times in 19 league outings so far. That's the best record of any player in the division that is not primarily used as a striker.

He has grown in confidence after what was actually quite a slow start, and now looks ready to take on shots whenever he gets a sight of goal. Moleiro is likely to be one of the main attacking threats in this game, particularly with Real Madrid short on options at right-back, with Alexander-Arnold sidelined and Carvajal sure to need more time on the pitch to get back towards his best level.

Villarreal also have four strong options for the two forward roles, so they should have enough firepower to test Thibaut Courtois in this game, while at least one away goal is also highly probable with Mbappé in this kind of form.

Given that, I'm using the Bet Builder to back Both teams to score & Alberto Moleiro 1+ shots on target @ 5/6

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Mark Sochon P/L 25/26 Season:

Points Staked: 146
Points Returned: 145.53
P/L: -0.53

You can check out Mark's Football Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...