Premier League Stats: Key Stats & Suggested Bet for Every Match in Gameweek 23

After a crazy set of results last time out with none of the top three even scoring a goal, matchday 23 kicks off with West Ham hoping to build on their win at Spurs as they host Sunderland, while the standout fixture sees Michael Carrick's Manchester United heading to Arsenal. 

Dan Thomas delves into his big bag of stats in an attempt to make sense of this surreal Premier League season and picks out a bet for each game based on some Premier League Stats...

*You can check out all of our Premier League Odds & Betting Markets over on betfred.com

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Premier League Stats & Best Bets for Week 23

• West Ham vs Sunderland 
• Saturday, 12:30 
• Live on TNT Sports 

Key stat: West Ham haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their 17 Premier League games under Nuno Espírito Santo, while only Wolves have won fewer home points than the Hammers this season. 

Best bet: West Ham got a morale boosting win at Tottenham last weekend, but most teams have had joy when travelling to Spurs this season and the Hammers still have plenty of work to do to get out of relegation trouble. Sunderland have had an inconsistent run in recent weeks, but they will have their six AFCON players back in the squad for this one and come off the back of a solid win over Crystal Palace. Given West Ham’s terrible form on home soil this season, 15/8 on the away win looks overpriced and that’s our play here. 

• Burnley vs Tottenham 
• Saturday, 15:00 

Key stat: Both teams have scored in seven of Burnley's last 10 matches across all competitions, while goals have been scored at both ends in four of Tottenham's last five games. 

Best bet: Thomas Frank got some much-needed respite with a midweek win in the Champions League, but Tottenham's domestic form remains wretched with the defeat to West Ham their third on the bounce. Burnley are in deep relegation trouble, but they've put a decent mini run together with draws against Manchester United and Liverpool and a win over Millwall in the FA Cup. We'll back Scott Parker's men to avoid defeat and both teams to score here at 7/4. 

• Fulham vs Brighton 
• Saturday, 15:00 

Key stat: Brighton have won just one of their 11 Premier League games against Fulham (D5 L5), their lowest win rate against any side they've faced more than twice (9%). 

Best bet: Brighton nicked a late point in Monday's south coast clash with Bournemouth, but the stalemate means the Seagulls have won just one of their last nine Premier League games, slipping from fifth to 12th. Fulham's 1-0 defeat at Leeds last time out ended their six-game unbeaten run in the Premier League, but Brighton are among their favourite opponents and we'll back Marco Silva's men to pick up maximum points here. 

• Manchester City vs Wolves 
• Saturday, 15:00 

Key stat: Manchester City are winless in their last four Premier League matches, while Wolves are now unbeaten in five across all competitions. 

Best bet: A few weeks' back this would have been the biggest home banker of the season, but Manchester City's recent stumbles combined with signs of life from Wolves has changed the picture, for all the hosts are still just 1/5 to win. Remarkably, Rob Edwards' men have won more Premier League games in 2026 than Manchester City and Liverpool combined! We won't shoot for the stars and predict a shock away win but we can get an odds-against price on Wolves covering the one-goal handicap here and that's the approach. 

• Bournemouth vs Liverpool 
• Saturday, 17:30 
• Live on Sky Sports 

Key stat: Only Sunderland's Premier League games have seen fewer first half goals than Liverpool's this season (19). But Reds games have seen more goals scored after half time than any other side (43). 

Best bet: Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 10 Premier League games, the longest current run of any side - but the last four have been draws, including last weekend's disappointing 1-1 at home to Burnley. That undefeated run should continue against a Bournemouth outfit who have won just one of their last 13 Premier League games, but there are generally goals when the Cherries are involved and we'll back both sides to find the net in the second half - the reverse fixture saw the teams sharing five after the break.  

• Brentford vs Nottingham Forest 
• Sunday, 14:00 
• Live on Sky Sports 

Key stat: Only the current top three sides have earned more home points than Brentford in the Premier League this season (24), while no team has failed to score in more different Premier League games than Nottingham Forest this season (11) 

Best bet: Brentford were unusually wasteful at Chelsea last weekend, racking up 15 shots and 1.54xG without finding the net, but they have few problems scoring on home soil, with 23 in their 10 so far at the G-Tech. Forest earned a creditable point at home to Arsenal but they didn't muster a shot on target and only Wolves and Sunderland have scored fewer goals on the road than the Tricky Trees. With Keith Andrews' men odds-on in the match odds market, we'll take the much bigger price of a win to nil.  

• Crystal Palace vs Chelsea 
• Sunday, 14:00 
• Live on Sky Sports 

Key stat: Only Burnley are on a longer winless run in the Premier League currently than Crystal Palace, with the Eagles drawing two and losing five of their last seven games. 

Best bet: It was a weekend to forget for Palace with Marc Guehi departing for Manchester City, Oliver Glasner announcing he was leaving at the end of his contract - and then laying into the board after defeat at Sunderland. The Eagles boss remains in situ - for now - but it's clearly an unhappy camp and they are facing a bogey side in Chelsea: they haven't beaten the Blues in 16 attempts. I was surprised to see Liam Rosenior's men at odds-against here so it's a straightforward play of the match odds.  

• Newcastle United vs Aston Villa 
• Sunday, 14:00 
• Live on Sky Sports 

Key stat: Only Arsenal (21) have won more away Premier League points this season than Aston Villa (18). Their 1.64 points per game on the road in 2025/26 is their best in any campaign since 2009/10 (1.68). 

Best bet: Newcastle are unbeaten in their last eight home Premier League matches but the disappointing draw at Wolves hinted at a bit of tiredness creeping through the squad, for all the midweek Champions League match with PSV was straightforward enough. Villa suffered a shock home defeat to Everton and had to travel to Turkey on Thursday evening, but 13/5 on the second-best away team in the league looks huge.  

• Arsenal vs Manchester United 
• Sunday, 16:30 
• Live on Sky Sports 

Key stat: There have been fewer than three goals in the last five meetings between these sides and in four of Manchester United’s last six games. 

Best bet: Manchester United fans know better than to get too excited with a derby win over City - it’s something they tend to pull out of the bag under most managers - but it was the performance and structure under interim boss Michael Carrick that impressed the most last weekend. They face a tougher test at the Emirates of course, but Liverpool showed the blueprint of how to blunt the Gunners, who have dropped points in consecutive matches. We’ll back the Red Devils to hold Mikel Arteta’s men and add in under 2.5 goals given the recent history of this fixture.  

• Everton vs Leeds United 
• Monday, 20:00 
• Live on Sky Sports 

Key stat: Only Burnley (5) and Wolves (3) have fewer away Premier League points in the Premier League this season than Leeds United (6) and only Bournemouth (30) and Burnley (27) have conceded more goals than the Whites (24). 

Best bet: Everton have been a real curate's egg this season, with a mixture of the sublime - wins at Villa Park and Old Trafford - and the ridiculous - 4-2 home defeat to Brentford and a 4-1 hammering by Newcastle. It makes predicting any given Toffees game a bit of a nightmare, but this applies to the oddsmakers as well as everyone else and it means we are getting 6/4 for a home victory against a side who've picked up only one away win all season. We'll cross our fingers and back David Moyes' men.  

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

Dan Thomas Premier League Stats P&L 2025/26:

• Stakes: 210
• Returns: 144.96
• Profit: -65.04

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