Sri Lanka vs England Prediction: Conditions make the hosts a good bet

The Ashes are in the rearview mirror and the focus is on the white ball game once again. Jamie Pacheco previews 1st ODI between Sri Lanka and England, starting 09:00 on Thursday, January 22 and live on TNT Sports 1.  

Jamie thinks the odds-compilers have the wrong favourite and that an underrated England bowler is being underrated for top bowler honours.  Let's check out Jamie's Sri Lanka vs England Predictions...

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Team News:

Sri Lanka  

This lot are always a dangerous side, particularly at home.   

At the time of writing, Sri Lanka haven't yet announced their squad, (if it's not on Cricinfo it isn't anywhere) which is pretty odd but we expect the usual suspects to be included.  

The two Kusals - Mendis and Perera - provide class and experience at the top of the order, while Charith Asalanka is another good player in that middle-order who has a knack for taking wickets with his off-spin, despite the fact that he doesn't seem to really turn the ball at all.  

Who does turn it a mile is Wanindu Hasaranga, the leg-spinner who can also hit it a mile.  

Kamindu Mendis and Dhananjaya de Silva are two other useful all-rounders in a team full of them.   

But in the absence of knowing who's in the squad, it would be silly to try to predict the XI. So we won't.  

England 

Different format, different conditions, but this first match might give us an idea into the mental state of the likes of Harry Brook, Joe Root, Jacob Bethell, Ben Duckett and Will Jacks, the five who played some part in the Ashes Series and are included in the squad for this Series.  

If any one of those five is to miss out, it's most likely to be Will Jacks.  

Sam Curran has flown in from a good stint in the Big Bash and Zak Crawley is something of a surprise inclusion. Jos Buttler has left the SA20 to join them.  

As ever, Adil Rashid is the key spinner, though Liam Dawson should also play, England also liking the fact he also bats.  

Confirmed XI: Crawley, Duckett, Root, Bethell, Brook, Buttler, Jacks, S. Curran, J. Overton, Dawson, Rashid.

Pitch and conditions 

We're at Colombo, one of the world's homes of spin bowling.  

'Just' the 155 ODIs have been played here over the years.  

But let's focus on the nine completed matches played here since 2024.  

Sri Lanka won seven of them, lost to Bangladesh and tied one with India; no Super Over was played.  

Pretty strong numbers for the hosts then, especially considering India and Australia were two of the sides they played here on several occasions during that period.  

With the pitch taking so much spin, this is not a high-scoring ground.  260 first up could well be a winning score. No problems with the weather forecast.  

Match Winner odds. 

Sri Lanka are 11/10, implied probability of 47.6%. England are (wrong) favourites at 8/11, 58%.  

Yes, we don't know who's in the SL squad but to a great extent, that doesn't really matter. They're going to pick their best XI whether we know in advance who it is, or not.  

There are three good reasons why we're backing the hosts. 1. They have an excellent recent record here. And in general, for that matter. 2. England's players have all been playing in completely different conditions. Some in Australia in the Ashes and BBL, others in South Africa at the SA20. 3. The prices are the wrong way round. That's the reason that really matters.  

*For all the latest and live Sri Lanka vs England 1st ODI Odds then head over to betfred.com 

England Top Bowler  

Further proof that it's anyone's guess (except the Sri Lankan selectors, I suppose) as to who is in their squad is that the Betfred odds-compilers haven't been able to price up the top bat and bowler markets for the hosts as of the time of writing. So we'll have to focus on the England ones.  

The odds-compilers have however, recognised that spin should be king, which is why Adil Rashid is the 5/2 favourite. 

I was pretty surprised to discover that after all these years, Liam Dawson, at almost 36, has only ever played six ODIs for England. For some context, he's played 169 List A matches.  

So he certainly knows what he's doing in 50 over games and if this is the spinning track we expect it to be, it may well be a straight shootout between him and Rashid. So we'll take the 10/3 on Dawson and consider that even a dead-heat would be a decent result for us.   

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Jamie Pacheco Cricket P/L 2025:

• Points Staked: 146
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• Final P/L: +5.7pts 

Jamie Pacheco Cricket P/L 2026:  

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Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket and European Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Cricket Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Cricket hub page...