Parma vs Torino Prediction: Hosts can land first win

Parma’s start to the new Serie A season has been a slow one, with two draws and two defeats to their name to date. However, they will look to get their first league win of 2025/26 on the board as they welcome Torino to Stadio Tardini. 

This game kicks off live at 17:30 and is available to watch on Betfred.com. Below you can find my Parma vs Torino predictions as we search for a winner in Italy. 

Team News

Parma earnt a penalty-shootout win in the Coppa Italia and Carlos Cuesta rested several key players for that midweek clash. We can expect those standout players such as Alessandro Circati and Adrian Bernabe to start, while all eyes will be on Mateo Pellegrino up top.

He scored against Spezia and hit two against Torino in March last year, so will hope to find the net again on Monday. Meanwhile, there is good news in the form of Hernani and Lautaro Valenti, both of whom are edging closer to returns. 

For Torino, Adam Masina remains sidelined along with long-term absentee Perr Schuurs. Aside from that, Marco Baroni has a fully-fit squad and a couple of big decisions to make. Duvan Zapata isn’t yet ready to start it appears so either Che Adams or Giovanni Simeone will be given the nod up top.

Ivan Ilic and Kristjan Asllani are likely to resume their central midfield partnership, although former Chelsea midfielder Cesare Casadei auditioned well for that role with a goal in midweek. 

Football Odds

Parma vs Torino Odds

Parma are the 13/10 favourites to win this game, while Torino are available at 23/10 to take all three points. That gives the home side an implied win probability of 43%, with a draw up at 11/5 if a share of the spoils takes your fancy. 

Over 2.5 goals is 6/5, BTTS is 10/11 and Pellegrino is the favourite to score first at 5/1.

Today's Football Fixtures

Parma to win @ 13/10

The Crociati return to their home, and they will be grateful to perform in front of their own fans given their strong home record. They’ve only lost one of their last seven in the league at home, despite only just avoiding relegation in 2024/25.

I fancy their chances of using that home record to get their first win of the Serie A campaign, against a Torino side that has struggled in front of goal. Toro may have picked up four points so far, therefore sitting above their hosts in the table, but they’ve been fortunate - scoring just one league goal and conceding eight so far. 

The underlying statistics also favour the home side, with Parma recording an xGD of -0.07 across their four games (10th), while Torino have looked poor with an xGD of -0.65 (19th). I think this is a good price on a Parma win.

Serie A Odds

Under 2.5 goals @ 4/6

A sensible second pick here. Parma have failed to score in their last two games and although these two played out an entertaining 2-2 draw the last time these two met, so far this term they haven’t looked good going forward. These are the two lowest-scorers in the entire league having managed just one goal apiece, while they rank 10th and 15th in terms of xG and chances created. 

I don’t think anything suggests we will get a high-scoring match on Monday night, so a stake on under 2.5 goals feels sensible. I’d also suggest a small stake on a 1-0 home win, if you want to find some value elsewhere. 

Offers

Place any 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 100% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down.

You can read all our latest Football Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub