Barnsley vs Brighton Prediction: Can Tykes trip up Seagulls?

Barnsley’s reward for reaching the third round of the Carabao Cup is a home tie against Premier League outfit Brighton & Hove Albion (19:45, Sky Sports+). The Seagulls reached this stage with an eye-catching 6-0 win away at Oxford United, and will hope to make their mark against lower-league opposition once again. 

Below you can find my Barnsley vs Brighton predictions featuring team news and betting tips. 

Team News

After three wins on the bounce in all competitions, Barnsley were beaten by Steve Bruce’s Blackpool last time out and manager Conor Hourihane may only choose to tweak his starting XI. David McGoldrick at 37 may be handed a rest with Jon Russell, Neil Farrugia and Vimal Yoganathan all trying to win a place in the XI. 

Davis Keillor-Dunn will provide the biggest goal threat for the hosts having scored five in eight this season, while Jack Shepherd and Josh Earl should continue their centre-back partnership. Captain Luca Connell is the beating heart of this team in midfield and will have to get through a lot of work to stop the Brighton players dictating play. 

Football Odds

Fabian Hurzeler will rotate his team massively after their 2-2 draw with Tottenham Hotspur. Jack Hinshelwood started in the big win at Oxford but has unfortunately picked up an ankle ligament injury, ruling him out for the next few months. Stefanos Tzimas is just 19 but should start this game having joined the club for £20m, along with Sunderland’s play-off final hero Tom Watson, who found the net off the bench at the Kassam Stadium. 

Jason Steele should play in goal, with Olivier Boscagli also likely to come into the back line. Diego Coppola is available to play at centre-back having come off the bench against Spurs, while I’d also expect Diego Gomez to get some minutes in the middle. Wide man Harry Howell (17), is also one to watch having made his Brighton debut in the last round.

Today's Football Fixtures

Barnsley vs Brighton Odds

Barnsley are a massive 11/1 to win this game on home soil in 90 minutes, while Brighton are the 1/4 favourites. That gives the away side an implied win probability of 80%, while a draw which would see a penalty shootout is 5/1.

Over 2.5 goals is 8/15, BTTS is 1/1 and Tzimas is the favourite to open the scoring at 7/2. 

Barnsley +2 handicap @ 1/1 

Now the odds suggest that this will be straightforward for Brighton, and while I agree that they are clear favourites to win this tie - I don’t think they will romp past the Tykes. The Seagulls looked impressive in that 6-0 win at Oxford, but the U’s don’t have the squad depth to compete on multiple fronts and the game quickly took on a pre-season feel. 

Since then, Hurzeler has seen his side beat Manchester City, lose to Bournemouth and draw with Spurs - with all three games seeing both teams find the net. That defensive weakness may show up again here, especially with the changes I expect the manager to make. Barnsley are a good team this season in League 1, and although they lost in injury time to Blackpool, should be competitive against Brighton. 

I don’t believe the Premier League team should be as short as they are with the bookies and although they might taste defeat, I back them to only lose by one goal, which would make this selection a winner for us.

Davis Keillor-Dunn to score first @ 11/1

Now I know sometimes it doesn’t make sense to back the underdog to score first, but I really think the value on show here is absolutely massive. If Barnsley are going to score, it is more than likely going to be Keillor-Dunn that gets it. 

Five goals in eight League 1 appearances this term is impressive for this dangerous Barnsley outfit, while Keillor-Dunn also smashed in 20 goals in 49 appearances in all competitions last season. He has certainly got himself into a goalscoring groove, and his movement and finishing ability are above League 1 standard. I think if Barnsley can start quickly and score first, we could land a big winner. Certainly worth a small punt at this price. 

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