Auckland vs Melbourne Victory Prediction: Shortage of strikes again

Premiership winners Auckland FC beat Melbourne Victory 1-0 at AAMI Park last weekend in the first leg of their Australian A-League Men's play-off semi-final tie, thanks to a 64th-minute strike from Logan Rogerson. Can Victory turn things around in Saturday's second leg (07:00, TNT Sports 4) at Go Media Stadium?

Read below to find out my Auckland vs Melbourne Victory predictions, alongside all the latest team news and match odds, for this second leg in New Zealand.

Team News

Once again, Auckland have no troubles in the treatment room, with all of Steve Corica's players expected to be available for Saturday's showdown with Melbourne Victory.

Luis Toomey and Max Mata were left out of the matchday squad last weekend, and they appear the most likely of the extended squad to miss out in the second leg.

Football Odds

Corica could name an unchanged starting XI following his side's win in Melbourne, meaning Neyder Moreno and Jake Brimmer, among others, will have to settle for bench roles again.

Melbourne Victory, meanwhile, have included club captain Roderick Miranda in their extended squad. The Brazilian defender was a late withdrawal ahead of the first leg, and his replacement, Brendan Hamill, was cruelly struck down by an ACL injury in the second half at AAMI Park.

Hamill will, of course, miss Saturday's second leg, but the blow could be softened slightly by the return of their skipper.

“Roddy trained today,” Victory head coach Arthur Diles said on Thursday.

“He looked okay today, so let’s hope that tomorrow he pulls through okay and he’s good enough to travel with the team."

Goalkeeper Mitch Langerak (foot) and defender Adama Traore (unspecified) remain sidelined.

Auckland vs Melbourne Victory Odds

Auckland have only lost once at home all season, suffering a 4-0 thrashing at the hands of Western United on December 21. Since then, the Black Knights have won four and drawn four at Go Media Stadium, and Corica's side are fancied at 19/20 to make it back-to-back victories on home soil this Saturday, implying a 51.3% probability.

The visitors, meanwhile, are 11/5, or a 31.3% chance, to triumph in regulation time, with a one-goal victory taking the tie to extra time, and two sending them through to the Grand Final.

The draw, which would be enough for Auckland, is priced at 5/2, both teams to score at 8/13, and over 2.5 total goals at 8/11.

Betfred are offering a couple of price boosts for this crucial clash in New Zealand. First up, Auckland to win, 4+ Goals & Victory's Bruno Fornaroli to score has been boosted from 10/1 to 12/1, and secondly, Melbourne Victory to win or draw, both teams to score & 6+ cards has been boosted from 13/2 to 15/2.

Total Goals - Under 2.5 @ 1/1

This selection was tipped successfully at 5/6 in last week's first leg preview, with just a single goal scored at AAMI Park. The two clubs have now met three times this season, and all three head-to-heads have produced two or fewer strikes.

The first match-up of the campaign saw the sides play out a 0-0 draw in New Zealand on New Year's Day, before the reverse fixture ended in a 2-0 win for Auckland in Melbourne.

I mentioned last week how this was a meeting of two of the meanest defences in the ALM, with Auckland conceding just 27 times in 26 games - only Melbourne City (25) were breached on fewer occasions. Third in the goals conceded column was Victory, whose net was troubled 36 times.

Of course, the fact that Victory need to win does mean that we could see the visitors open up more than usual, increasing the chance of more goals, but at the same time, the hosts may bunker in more than usual, knowing that a draw will send them through to the Grand Final.

If the Black Knights go into the lead, I think Corica's charges will become even more defensive, and pretty much invite pressure onto themselves, confident that they can withstand anything that comes their way.

Should Victory level up the tie, we could see Diles' side look to hold on until extra time and, potentially, a penalty shootout, so backing under 2.5 total goals in regulation time makes sense again here.

Player to Receive a Card - Louis Verstraete (AUC) @ 13/8

Belgian midfielder Louis Verstraete is Auckland's most booked player this season, picking up six yellows and one red in 24 appearances (21 starts).

The 26-year-old, who is averaging 2.2 fouls per game, has managed to avoid being scribbled into the referee's notebook in his last two outings, receiving his most recent caution in the 1-0 victory over Perth Glory at Go Media Stadium on April 27.

Verstraete didn't commit a single foul against Victory in last week's first leg, but against the same opposition last month, he was whistled four times. He wasn't booked in that 2-0 win for Auckland, but in their first meeting of the season, the goalless draw at Go Media Stadium on New Year's Day, Verstraete was shown a yellow for one of the three fouls he made.

Given the Black Knights are defending a lead, and with so much on the line, expect the Auckland man to be robust in the challenge on Saturday.

Victory have their fair share of tricky players, chiefly Daniel Arzani and Nishan Velupillay, who are fouled, on average, 1.5 and 1.2 times per game, respectively, so Verstraete is an obvious candidate in the player card market here.

Offers

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 100% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down

You can read all our latest Football Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.