Manchester City vs Brighton Prediction: Can Seagulls sink City?

Manchester City are fighting for a top four finish this season and having lost to Nottingham Forest, they will hope to get back to winning ways when they host Brighton at the Etihad Stadium at 15:00. Brighton also have plenty to fight for as they sit seventh, just one point behind their hosts this weekend. 

Below you can find my Manchester City vs Brighton predictions ahead of this important Premier League clash. 

Team News

Manchester City’s defensive issues have been covered quite extensively, but they aren’t improving. Nathan Ake has undergone surgery on his foot, joining John Stones and Manuel Akanji in the recovery room. 

Also sidelined for City are long-term absentees Rodri and Oscar Bobb, while the trio of Kevin De Bruyne, Mateo Kovacic and Omar Marmoush could all start having been named as substitutes from the off in the defeat to Forest. Pep Guardiola can’t do an awful lot of tinkering here, with Savinho and Jeremy Doku likely to provide the width. 

Rico Lewis could come in at right-back for Matheus Nunes as Guardiola searches for some defensive solidity. 

Brighton are without James Milner and Igor Julio with hamstring issues, with the former ruled out for the rest of the campaign. Ferdi Kadioglu has had toe surgery and could return before May but this weekend comes too soon, while back-up goalkeeper Jason Steele is also out with shoulder trouble. 

Matt O’Riley is a doubt having missed the FA Cup win at Newcastle with a bug and then missed the win over Fulham with a knee problem. He could be named on the bench if fit but is unlikely to start, while Lewis Dunk is also sidelined with trouble with his ribs, with Adam Webster set to continue in his absence.

Joel Veltman also is unlikely to shake off his ankle issue but Tariq Lamptey has served his suspension and is back available for selection. 

Manchester City vs Brighton Odds

Manchester City are unsurprisingly the favourites for this one, priced at 4/6 to take the win having won eight of 13 home matches in the league so far. That gives them an implied win probability of 60% heading into this fixture, while Brighton can be backed at 18/5 for the win, and a draw is 100/30. 

Over 2.5 goals has come in during 68% of both Brighton and Man City’s fixtures this season, and that can be backed at 1/2, while BTTS is 8/15. Erling Haaland is the favourite to open the scoring at 3/1, having struck 20 times across 27 PL matches this term. 

Double Chance: Draw or Brighton @ 6/5

I’m more than happy to back the away side to get something at the Etihad. Even though they have several injuries, it doesn’t seem to be slowing them down. They’ve now won six games in a row in all competitions, including winning the last three by two goals to one. 

Fabian Hurzeler has done a terrific job with the Seagulls and now they have a real possibility of securing a European spot next season - with the Champions League not out of reach given the Premier League should be awarded five spots next term.

City just don’t look solid defensively and I can’t help but feel that they will concede at least once. Although I’m not quite brave enough to back the away win, I think there is great value in backing the Double Chance - Brighton win or draw. That’s my first selection. 

Football Odds

Bet Builder - Brighton to win, Erling Haaland and Joao Pedro to score @ 18/1

Okay - let’s go big with our second selection. I truly think Brighton offer the better value here but we are near-certain to get an entertaining clash at the Etihad. I’ll back both teams to score in this away win, but to boost our odds let’s name two goalscorers. 

Haaland has scored four in his last six in the Premier League and needs no introduction in truth. He should be able to score against a Brighton outfit that hasn’t kept a clean sheet in three, and their high line could be taken advantage of by Haaland. I’ll also back Joao Pedro to find the net after his late winner at Fulham took him to eight for the season. He’s got the quality to strike at the Etihad. 

Offers

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