Luton vs Plymouth Prediction: Tight encounter expected at foot of the table

Wednesday night’s fixture between Luton Town and Plymouth Argyle (19:45, Sky Sports+) is likely to have a seismic effect on the Championship’s relegation battle. The Hatters, despite having been a Premier League outfit last term, sit bottom of the table and they are now fighting for their second tier status. 

Meanwhile, Plymouth are just one place and one point above them after a sluggish start to the season under Wayne Rooney. Things have picked up slightly for the Pilgrims under new boss Miron Muslic, but they are still in the bottom three. Below you can find my Luton vs Plymouth predictions featuring team news and betting tips. 

Team News

Luton boss Matt Bloomfield has confirmed that Jordan Clark will be unavailable after picking up a knock to his ankle in the warm-up on Saturday. However, there are no new injury concerns as the Hatters look to get off the foot of the table and plunge Plymouth further into the abyss. 

Reece Burke is “not quite there, but close” as he had hoped to return to the squad for the first time since November, while Zack Nelson and Lamine Fanne remain unavailable. Teden Mengi and Tahith Chong are not ready to return either, so Bloomfield could stick with the side that only lost 1-0 to promotion-chasing Sheffield United last time out. 

He chose to pair Elijah Adebayo and Carlton Morris up front, and although that doesn’t feel like a usual Bloomfield tactic, he may choose to call upon the experienced players in his squad, Marvelous Nakamba included, to get them out of this mess. Thelo Aasgaard has been a key figure since his arrival from Wigan, while Isaiah Jones, who joined for £5m from Middlesbrough in January, should keep his place on the right. 

Ahead of Wednesday’s crunch clash against Argyle, Bloomfield said: “We’ve had an extra day’s recovery and it’s on us to replicate Saturday’s performance. We know what is needed tomorrow and for the rest of the season but we’re going to try and use the momentum from the boys and the crowd from Saturday and I hope that’s replicated as much as possible.”

For Plymouth, they are without Joe Edwards and Brendan Galloway, with the latter’s hip injury ruling him out for the rest of the campaign. Meanwhile, they are sweating on the fitness of top scorer Ryan Hardie, with Muslic saying it is a “race against time” to see if he will make it after he was withdrawn early on at Ewood Park. 

Other than that, the manager has a fully-fit squad to choose from, and he could ring the changes after a disappointing performance away at Blackburn ended their four-match unbeaten run. Michael Baidoo should replace Hardie at the top end of the pitch if the striker doesn’t make it, with Mustapha Bundu and Callum Wright hoping to hold onto their places in the starting XI. Jordan Houghton is an option in midfield while Bali Mumba has had a lack of minutes of late and could be left on the bench once again. 

Luton vs Plymouth Odds

Bloomfield is still searching for his first win in charge of the Hatters but they are the favourites and can be backed at 8/11 to win this game. That gives them an implied win probability of 55%, while Plymouth can be backed at 4/1 to secure their first away win of the campaign. A draw has been priced up at 5/2 which could be a decent shout given the importance of this fixture.

Over 2.5 goals is 6/5 and has come in during 58% of Plymouth’s games this season, giving them the third-highest success rate in the league. BTTS is 11/10 and Morris is the favourite to open the scoring at 9/2. 

First-half correct score: 0-0 @ 6/4

This is going to be a horrible game of football to watch as a fan of either side. There is just so much riding on it and the magnitude of the result cannot be overstated. However, I do think it presents us with an opportunity to pick out a winning selection this Wednesday evening. 

There is going to be a ‘no-frills’ feel to this game, but especially during the first-half where you have to assume both teams will be terrified of making a mistake. I think the defences will be going long on a frequent basis, and there won’t be much in it at all as Plymouth look to set their defensive stall out in a tricky away game. I think the value lies in backing it to be goalless at half-time, just as Luton’s last outing against Sheffield United was.

Double chance  - Draw or Plymouth @ 11/10

Now I’m well aware that Argyle haven’t won an away league game this season. They’ve also only picked up four points on the road and conceded 39 goals in the process. But I still think backing them in this game is the way we can extract the best value from this tie. I’m not brave enough to back them outright at 4/1 for the victory, but I will plump for them to avoid defeat at Kenilworth Road. 

I just think the pressure of this match will weigh heavily on the shoulders of Luton, and if they concede first I think the home fans will turn against this squad. Bloomfield is a talented coach but I’m not sure I trust him to get Luton out of a relegation battle and despite a slight uptick in performance levels, they have only picked up one point from their last five fixtures. 

He’s gone back to a front two, and I’m not sure he knows his best system or XI. Meanwhile, Plymouth have won three of their last four in all competitions and although the Blackburn result was disappointing, I think they can avoid defeat here and make this a winning selection. 

Football Betting Tips from Betfred Insights.