Sporting CP vs Bologna Prediction: Italians can halt Sporting’s Play-off progress

Sporting are fighting for their Champions League lives and are up against a Bologna side with nothing to play for, bar pride and prize money in Lisbon on Wednesday night, kick-off time 20:00 with Discovery+ being the place to watch the action in the UK.

Jamie Pacheco thinks Bologna can make life very tough for the hosts and that this is a game that could have plenty of cards, so bet accordingly as he takes us through his Sporting CP vs Bologna Predictions...

*You can check out all of the Football Odds we offer over at betfred.com

Sporting Lisbon  

Sporting are 23rd but in this new format, that doesn't mean they're out of contention at all. In fact, a win here would not see them qualify for the Playoffs as an unseeded team, it may even allow them to enter the next round as a seeded one, depending on how other matches turn out.  

Like Lisbon neighbours Benfica, they started the competition well but are either running out of gas or suffered too much from Ruben Amorim's exit, hard to say.  

What was odd was their decision to start star man Viktor Gyokeres on the bench last week away at Leipzig. If they'd won that match, they'd pretty much be in the next round already.  

Surely, they could have rested him for the far easier match at home to Nacional in the league, so that apart from anything else he could have been fresh for this one? They lost 2-1 in Leipzig with Gyokeres scoring the equaliser off the bench before Red Bull scored shortly after, and that was that so you can see what the were missing with the Swede on the bench.  

Japanese midfield enforcer Morita may miss out with injury and that would be a significant blow.  

Likely XI: Israel, Araujo, Fresneda, Inacio, Diomande, Catamo, Debast, Hjulmand, Quenda, Trincao, Gyokeres.   

Bologna  

Bologna certainly aren't in contention to make the next round but at least they improved as the competition progressed, building on a good draw against Benfica before Christmas to beat Dortmund 2-1 at home last week. But it's all too little, too late.  

That said, they're certainly in good form in all competitions, losing just one of their last 12 that included getting very good draws at Juventus and Inter, and beating a good Fiorentina side.   

They will have learnt from their experience at this level though they may have to wait a while before they're next in this competition.  

They've only scored three goals in it this season and no-one has more than one, so you can see what's seriously contributed to their downfall.  

Likely XI: Skorupski, Holm, Lykogiannis, Lucumi, Beukema, Orsolini, Freuler, Ndoye, Pobega, Odgaard, Castro.  

Sporting CP vs Bologna Odds

Sporting are 2/5, implied probability of 71.4%, with the draw 4/1 (20%) and Bologna a big-looking 13/2 (13.3%) for the away win.  

The Betfred odds-compilers are going down the well-trodden path of assuming that the team who has something to play for is almost nailed-on to win, against the one who doesn't. It doesn't always work out that way.  

I watched Bologna's trip to Benfica a few weeks ago, just a couple of hundred metres away from Sporting's ground and was impressed by how hard they made life for the Eagles, in the end securing a 0-0 draw. Benfica were also short favourites for that one.  

That stat of one defeat in their last 12 in all competitions is worth taking note of because you don't play many bad sides in Serie A week-in-week-out and ten of those games were in the league.  

As for Sporting, though they've improved under Rui Borges after the Joao Pereira fiasco, they're still a bit inconsistent as a 4-4 draw at Guimaraes a couple of weeks ago proves. They were also pretty flat last week in Leipzig. They're the ones under all the pressure, whereas Bologna have nothing to lose, so that may play into the Italians' hands.  

As ever, price is everything and Sporting are too short; so, take the 9/5 on the Double Chance market that covers the Bologna win, or a more likely draw.  

Bookings Points: Over/Under 42.5 points  

Bologna don't mind a scrap and as far down the table they are when it comes to actual points, they're pretty close to the top of the Champions League table when it comes to bookings points!  

In fact, they're top of the table when it comes to yellows awarded to them, with 25. Young Boys and Real Madrid are next with 23 and 22 by the way, the only surprise being that Bologna haven't had a man sent off yet.  

There were eight yellows in their match against Dortmund last week and seven yellows and a red (this time a Bologna player) in their game against Verona in late December. So you can see what we mean about them liking a scrap.  

Sporting are considerably better behaved with just 12 yellows in seven games so far but you suspect Bologna may bring out the worst (best?) in them. Besides, if things are tight then presumably one of their players may 'take one for the team'. Let's hope so.  

Ref Benoit Bastien is averaging 4.4 yellows for the season and has also given out three reds, so he's the sort of man we'd want in charge for this one. Five yellows, or two yellows and a red, would be a winner for us.

Wednesday's Champions League Predictions:

The team here at Betfred Insights have you fully-covered for the final round of Champions League matches this Wednesday. You can check out all of our previews for the matches below:

Aston Villa vs Celtic Prediction: Hosts to win but no clean sheet
Barcelona vs Atalanta Prediction: Expect goals, goals, goals in the Catalan capital
Bayer Leverkusen vs Sparta Prague Prediction: Wirtz can secure qualification
Bayern Munich vs Slovan Bratislava Prediction: Kim to cash in for Kompany’s corner kings
Borussia Dortmund vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction: Hosts may have to dig in against the Miners
Brest vs Real Madrid Prediction: Mbappe can score for sixth straight match at Brest
Dinamo Zagreb vs AC Milan Prediction: Rossoneri to get the job done
Girona vs Arsenal Prediction: Gunners to keep another clean sheet
Inter Milan vs Monaco Prediction: Hosts to secure knockout place
Juventus vs Benfica Prediction: Two anytime scorer bets worth backing
Lille vs Feyenoord Prediction: Canadian to catch visitors cold in France
Manchester City vs Club Brugge: Citizens to dig deep for the result they need
PSV vs Liverpool Prediction: Hosts to overcome booking points handicap in Eindhoven
Red Bull Salzburg vs Atletico Madrid Prediction: Alvarez to come up with another goal
Sturm Graz vs RB Leipzig Prediction: Sesko can score in dead rubber
Stuttgart vs PSG Prediction: Barcola to rise to occasion again
Young Boys vs Red Star Belgrade Prediction: Red Star can sign off with a win

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket and European Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Football Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Football hub page...