Borussia Dortmund vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction: Hosts may have to dig in against the Miners

It's crunch time in the Uefa Champions League this week for both Borussia Dortmund and Shakhtar Donetsk, who meet at the former's Signal Iduna Park on Wednesday (20:00, discovery+) in their eighth and final league phase games. The German giants are assured of a knockout phase play-off place but last Tuesday's 2-1 defeat to Bologna, which proved to be Nuri Sahin's final match in charge, sent Der BVB down to 14th and in danger of missing out on the top eight which would grant direct entry to the last 16.

Shakhtar (27th), meanwhile, must win in Germany and hope other results go their way to sneak into the top 24 and the knockout phase play-offs. Below is my Borussia Dortmund vs Shakhtar Donetsk prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Managerless Borussia Dortmund, who are reportedly in talks with Niko Kovac over replacing Sahin at the helm, will have to make do without defender Niklas Sule (ankle) and midfielder Felix Nmecha (knee) for this game.

Nico Schlotterbeck was sent off in Dortmund's 2-2 Bundesliga draw with Werder Bremen on Saturday but his ban is only a domestic one so expect the 25-year-old to start on Wednesday.

Algerian full-back Ramy Bensebaini was suspended for his side's 2-1 defeat to Bologna in Italy last Tuesday due to an accumulation of yellow cards but is free to return this week.

Football Odds

Brazilian attacker Eguinaldo was substituted in the 55th minute of Shakhtar Donetsk's 2-0 victory over Brest last Wednesday with a muscle injury and the 20-year-old isn't expected to be back available until mid-February.

Burkina Faso forward Lassina Traore came on for Eguinaldo against Brest and the 24-year-old could replace him in the Miners' starting XI in midweek. Taras Stepanenko and Oleksandr Zubkov are more experienced options if head coach Marino Pusic opts to go down that route.

Borussia Dortmund vs Shakhtar Donetsk Odds

Borussia Dortmund are winless in their last five games, the first four of which they lost, but they are still heavy favourites (1/3) to claim all three points on Wednesday. Those odds give Der BVB an implied win probability of 75% while Shakhtar are 15/2, or an 11.8% chance, to triumph on their travels in Europe for the first time this season.

The draw, which would do nothing for the visitors, is priced at 5/1, and both teams to score at 8/11.

Dortmund striker Serhou Guirassy, whose seven-goal tally in the Champions League has him behind only Barcelona duo Robert Lewandowski (nine) and Raphinha (eight) in the Golden Boot race, is 10/11 to strike anytime in midweek, and 7/2 to open the scoring. Georgiy Sudakov, whose successfully converted spot-kick against Brest was his second of the competition this season, is the shortest priced to score anytime for Shakhtar at 4/1.

Both Teams to Score in First Half - Yes @ 3/1

I'm confident we will see a few goals in this game as a draw does little for either side in their respective aims. At home, Dortmund will be expected to take the initiative and attack from the off in pursuit of a win that could lift them up into the top eight, while Shakhtar know that only three points will do to keep them in the competition, and although that doesn't mean they will be gung-ho from minute one, they will be aware of the dangers of going behind and will be desperate to grab the first goal.

Shakhtar failed to score in their opening three league phase games but have found the net in their last four, and all seven goals have arrived in the first half. They conceded before half-time in two of those matches, once in a 2-1 win over Young Boys and twice in a 5-1 defeat to Bayern Munich, and they have been breached in the first half of four of their seven competition outings.

The only first-half goal Dortmund have conceded in this season's Champions League was on matchday two against Celtic but they've been got at before the interval seven times across their last four Bundesliga matches including three times at home in a 3-2 defeat by Bayer Leverkusen on January 10.

Like Shakhtar, Dortmund struck in the first 45 minutes of their last league phase game, taking the lead in the 15th minute through Guirassy against Bologna before losing 2-1. That was the fourth European match this term in which they had scored in the opening half, and they will be bidding to make it number five against the Ukrainians on Wednesday.

Bet Builder - Shakhtar Donetsk Over 10.5 Shots, Georgiy Sudakov (SHA) 1+ Shots on Target @ 7/2

Shakhtar will be acutely aware that only a win will suffice on Wednesday which means that, unless they are in the lead, they should be firing off shots from all angles.

They struggled to get shots away in their opening three games of the league phase, peaking with nine against Arsenal in their third, but their following three brought about 17, 12 and 12 against Young Boys, PSV and Bayern respectively before going down to nine against Brest - although eight of those efforts came in the first half as they raced into a two-goal lead before holding firm in the second period.

Dortmund, meanwhile, are conceding, on average, 13.6 shots per game in the Champions League this season, allowing 17 in Bologna last time out and 13 at home to Barcelona in the match before. Bremen shot 13 times against them on the weekend, the third consecutive game in which the opposing side had managed over 12.5, and without a clean sheet in their last 10 contests, shipping 19 goals in that run, they look vulnerable in defence.

I'm also backing Shakhtar's number 10, Sudakov, to register a shot on target, something he has managed in three of his seven league phase appearances including last time out against Brest. The 22-year-old scored a penalty against the French side and later had an effort saved by goalkeeper Marco Bizot, and he's likely to pose the biggest threat to Dortmund's goal on Wednesday.

Offers

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Wednesday's Champions League Predictions:

The team here at Betfred Insights have you fully-covered for the final round of Champions League matches this Wednesday. You can check out all of our previews for the matches below:

Aston Villa vs Celtic Prediction: Hosts to win but no clean sheet
Barcelona vs Atalanta Prediction: Expect goals, goals, goals in the Catalan capital
Bayer Leverkusen vs Sparta Prague Prediction: Wirtz can secure qualification
Bayern Munich vs Slovan Bratislava Prediction: Kim to cash in for Kompany’s corner kings
Brest vs Real Madrid Prediction: Mbappe can score for sixth straight match at Brest
Dinamo Zagreb vs AC Milan Prediction: Rossoneri to get the job done
Girona vs Arsenal Prediction: Gunners to keep another clean sheet
Inter Milan vs Monaco Prediction: Hosts to secure knockout place
Juventus vs Benfica Prediction: Two anytime scorer bets worth backing
Lille vs Feyenoord Prediction: Canadian to catch visitors cold in France
Manchester City vs Club Brugge: Citizens to dig deep for the result they need
PSV vs Liverpool Prediction: Hosts to overcome booking points handicap in Eindhoven
Red Bull Salzburg vs Atletico Madrid Prediction: Alvarez to come up with another goal
Sporting CP vs Bologna Prediction: Italians can halt Sporting’s Play-off progress
Sturm Graz vs RB Leipzig Prediction: Sesko can score in dead rubber
Stuttgart vs PSG Prediction: Barcola to rise to occasion again
Young Boys vs Red Star Belgrade Prediction: Red Star can sign off with a win