Melbourne Victory vs Sydney Prediction: An abundance of bookings in The Big Blue

The second 'Big Blue' game of the 2024/25 Australia A-League Men's season takes place at AAMI Park on Friday (08:35, TNT Sports 1) with hosts Melbourne Victory out for revenge after losing 3-0 to Sydney FC at Allianz Stadium last month (December 28).

Below you can find my Melbourne Victory vs Sydney prediction, alongside all the latest team news and match odds, as both clubs seek a win to boost their top-six aspirations.

Team News

Melbourne Victory will welcome Reno Piscopo back from injury after the 26-year-old winger missed last Saturday's 3-2 defeat at Adelaide United. Clerismario Santos Rodrigues replaced Piscopo in Arthur Diles' starting XI at Coopers Stadium and scored his side's second goal, so Piscopo may have to settle for a place on the bench at AAMI Park.

Goalkeeper Mitchell Langerak recently re-joined Victory from the Japanese J1 League club Nagoya Grampus but Jack Duncan kept his place between the sticks against the Reds. However, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Langerak make his second debut for Victory on Friday, nearly 15 years after departing for German giants Borussia Dortmund.

Football Odds

Key Sydney central defender Hayden Matthews is currently "overseas" according to Sky Blues boss Ufuk Talay. The 20-year-old is reportedly closing in on a move to the south of England with EFL Championship side Portsmouth.

“At this present time, we won’t have Hayden available for this game," said Talay.

Alexandar Popovic, who returned to action last weekend following a four-game injury absence, will likely replace Matthews in the starting XI.

Pat Wood, meanwhile, recently completed a loan move to ALM strugglers Perth Glory.

Douglas Costa (hamstring) remains unavailable for selection and Anthony Caceres, who started Sydney's 4-3 defeat to Brisbane Roar last Saturday, is ruled out as he observes concussion protocol.

However, 23-year-old defender Aaron Gurd is back fit and in Friday's squad.

Melbourne Victory vs Sydney Odds

Melbourne Victory are without a win in their last three at AAMI Park but will be buoyed by Sydney's failure to pick up maximum points in any of their last four away games. The Sky Blues have drawn their last three away from Allianz Stadium, so 5/2 on a stalemate, which has been the outcome twice in Victory's winless home run, could appeal.

Despite Diles failing to land a victory in six attempts so far, Friday's hosts are favourites for the three points at 21/20, implying a win probability of 48.8%, while the visitors are 2/1, or a 33.3% chance, to take them back on their travels to Sydney.

In the anytime goalscorer market, Victory forward Bruno Fornaroli leads the way at 11/10, followed by teammate Nikos Vergos and Sydney star Joe Lolley.

Away Team Total Goals - Sydney Over 1.5 Goals @ 11/10

The ALM has to be one of the most mystifying top-level leagues in the world right now, throwing up surprise result after surprise result. In the last week, we've seen Wellington Phoenix go to Macarthur and win 2-1 and Central Coast Mariners triumph 3-1 at Western Sydney Wanderers, two unexpected outcomes considering the struggles of the away sides, but those two victories paled in comparison with Brisbane Roar's 4-3 success at Sydney's Allianz Stadium. The Roar were winless in their first 12 games, picking up just two points, while the Sky Blues were riding high after a six-match unbeaten run.

Sydney, however, were two goals down inside the first 21 minutes, and 3-1 behind 20 minutes later. After conceding a fourth in the 71st minute, Talay's team did attempt to stage a recovery, scoring twice late on, but they ultimately proved to be consolation efforts as the Roar secured a famous win in the Emerald City.

I backed Sydney on the -2 handicap in my Sydney v Brisbane Roar preview, so you can imagine the bruising my ego took last weekend.

Consequently, I'm steering well away from a result-based pick on Sydney - you won't pull my pants all the way down this time, Sky Blues.

Instead, I'm opting for, what should be, a slightly safer pick of the Sydney to strike at least twice, still at over EVS (11/10). This way, they can be as bad as they like in defence - as long as they score twice up the other end.

This selection, of course, came up trumps last time out against the Roar and has done so in 11 of their ALM games this season including nine of their last 10. It was also a winner in the last meeting between the Sky Blues and Victory, with the former coasting to a 3-0 success at Allianz Stadium last month.

Victory, meanwhile, have fallen apart in defence since Patrick Kisnorbo walked out on the club a week before Christmas to join Japanese J1 League side Yokohama F. Marinos as an assistant coach. Kisnorbo's No.2, Diles, was subsequently appointed as interim head coach and his first game in charge was the Melbourne derby on December 21, which they drew 1-1 against City. That was a solid start to his reign, but it's been pretty much downhill ever since, with Sydney ending their 2024 in inglorious fashion.

Three days after a goalless stalemate with Auckland in New Zealand on New Year's Day, Victory were held to a 2-2 draw at home by the Wanderers, and that was followed six days later by a 4-3 defeat at AAMI Park by Western United, who were 3-2 down heading into second-half stoppage time. Then, last Saturday, Victory again threw away a lead to lose 3-2 at Adelaide United, meaning that they have conceded at least two goals in four of their last five games.

Before Kisnorbo left and Diles filled the void, Victory had been breached just five times in 11 matches across all competitions, never conceding more than a single goal in a game.

Victory are there to be got at on Friday, and while I can make no guarantees over how many strikes Sydney ship themselves, I do think the 11/10 on the visitors netting twice provides value at AAMI Park.

Booking Points Over/Under +42.5 - Over 42.5 @ 1/1

The Big Blue is usually a feisty affair and it was no different in December's reverse fixture as five yellow cards were dished out, two to Sydney and three to Victory, racking up 50 booking points (10 for a yellow with Betfred, 25 for a red - 35 for two bookable offences).

The last time these sides met at AAMI Park, meanwhile, nearly a year to the day (January 26), four cards were shown - one of the red variety to the recently loaned Wood. There were a total of 45 booking points, and there have been over 42.5 booking points produced in the last five Big Blues. The last game between the pair that didn't pass the threshold was Sydney's 2-1 win over Victory at AAMI Park in January 2023 when four cards (40 booking points) were given.

Statistically, Sydney are the dirtiest side in the ALM with only Perth Glory (28) - who haven't received a red this season - picking up more yellow cards than the Sky Blues (27) who have been shown three red cards; only Victory and Western United (both two) have also picked up multiple.

Offers

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