Western United vs Brisbane Roar Prediction: Botic to bag again

Brisbane Roar head into Sunday's Australian A-League Men's clash with Western United at Ironbark Fields (06:00, TNT Sports 3) knowing that only a win will ensure they don't finish the calendar year bottom of the table. Their hosts, meanwhile, can move as high as fourth with a victory this weekend.

Read below for my Western United vs Brisbane Roar prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Western United captain Ben Garuccio is poised to make his return to action after missing the last four outings with a calf injury.

However, James Donachie, Sebastian Pasquali and Khoder Kaddour are all still in the treatment room.

Football Odds

Brisbane Roar will be forced into a defensive reshuffle for Sunday’s match following confirmation of Ben Warland's ACL injury picked up against Perth Glory last weekend. Warland was replaced by Hosine Bility in the first half at Suncorp Stadium and the Midtjylland loanee is set to start in place of the 28-year-old at Ironbark Fields.

In more positive news, Joe Caletti, Sam Klein and Ben Halloran are back in the squad, the latter having recovered from illness.

Western United vs Brisbane Roar Odds

Western United have won two on the trot and are 4/5 to make it three on Sunday, giving the hosts an implied probability of 55.6%, while Brisbane Roar are 5/2, or a 28.6% chance, to triumph for the first time April 5 when they beat Western Sydney Wanderers 2-1 at CommBank Stadium in Sydney.

Two of the last four head-to-heads have ended in a stalemate and it's 11/4 for another draw between the teams this weekend, while you can get 4/9 for both teams to score which has landed in five of the last seven ALM meetings.

Match Result & Total Goals Over/Under 3.5 - Western United & Over 3.5 Goals @ 11/4

Western United started the current campaign on a four-game winless run and after seven rounds of fixtures their only win was against 2023/24 wooden spooners Perth Glory (1-3), who are second bottom and have just five points to their name after 10 games played.

However, John Aloisi's side have stepped things up in the last couple of matches, winning away at Sydney FC (3-4) and Auckland (0-4) - the former one of the pre-season Premiership favourites, and the latter the current ALM leaders who haven't tasted defeat in any of their other eight contests.

Western United are unbeaten in their last three games having also drawn 0-0 with Macarthur at Ironbark Fields on December 7 and have lost just one in five since the conclusion of the November international break.

Brisbane Roar, meanwhile, are the only side in the division yet to taste victory this season having failed to pick up three points in any of their opening eight games, losing six times including last time out at fellow strugglers Perth Glory (0-1), who emerged triumphant in the battle of the winless clubs.

Last season wasn't exactly joyful for the Roar as they finished ninth in the 12-team league, nine points off the play-offs, but things are looking much more bleak this term.

The pressure on head coach Ruben Zadkovich continues to intensify and one wonders how long he can hang on in there if this winless run continues. Certainly, I don't see it coming to an end on Sunday, and in fact, I predict a seventh defeat of the season.

Western United are in tremendous form, scoring four times in each of their last two games - both away from Melbourne - and they will fancy their chances of sticking a few past one of the league's worst defences. Only Perth Glory (27) have conceded more goals than the Roar (21) in 2024/25 and the former have played two more games.

Over 3.5 total goals has landed in half (four) of Western United's eight ALM contests this season including all three of their wins while there have been at least four goals scored in 63 per cent (five) of Brisbane's matches; only Western Sydney Wanderers and Adelaide United (67 per cent) have recorded a higher percentage.

Therefore, backing a Western United win and over 3.5 total goals, which has been a winning selection for the past two weekends, looks like a solid shout at 11/4.

There were four goals struck in their only previous meeting this calendar year, on February 23, albeit they were shared as the teams played out a 2-2 draw at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane.

Anytime Goalscorer - Noah Botic (WU) @ 13/10

Western United forward Noah Botic struck six times in 21 ALM appearances in 2022/23, his first full professional season, before netting five goals in 19 outings the following campaign. He started off slowly this term, failing to score in any of his first five games but has now bagged three in his last four and back-to-back wins over Sydney and Auckland.

Given the Roar's weak rearguard, it's difficult to look past Botic or strike partner Hiroshi Ibusuki (23/20), who also scored in New Zealand last weekend and has four for the season, in the anytime goalscorer market.

I'm opting for Botic as my pick due to the higher returns and the fact that he is in the better goalscoring form out of the two in recent weeks, plus the 22-year-old notched in February's head-to-head.

Botic (9/2) could also be worth looking at in the first goalscorer market as all three of his strikes this season have come in the first half, in the 23rd minute or earlier, and one - in the third minute against Sydney - was the first goal of the game.

Offers

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