Man City vs Luton Prediction: Hatters can give City a close shave

Manchester City played out a humdinger of a Champions League tie in midweek as two stunning strikes from Phil Foden and Josko Gvardiol respectively earned them a 3-3 draw against Real Madrid. Ahead of the second leg next Wednesday, they must now turn their attention back to the Premier League as they prepare to face Luton Town on Saturday afternoon (15:00). 

Below you can find my Man City vs Luton prediction, as Pep Guardiola’s men look to heap the pressure onto both Arsenal and Liverpool, in their quest for a fourth-consecutive league title. 

Team News

Having missed the first leg at the Bernabeu, Kyle Walker is also expected to sit this one out, in the hope he will be able to feature on Wednesday night. He has a thigh issue, while Nathan Ake is City’s only other concern. Number one goalkeeper Ederson returned to the squad against Real Madrid and is likely to play this Premier League match. 

Luton didn’t have a midweek match but their injury list is substantial. Tom Lockyer, Marvelous Nakamba, Jacob Brown, Dan Potts, Amari'i Bell, Chiedozie Ogbene, Mads Andersen and Albert Sambi Lokonga all remain out as Rob Edwards tries to get the best out of the players that remain. Issa Kabore is also unable to face his parent club this weekend. Ouch. 

Match Odds

Man City are the obvious favourites here, priced at 1/12 to take the points. That gives them an implied win percentage of 92%. Wow. A draw can be backed at 10/1 while Luton are 25/1 to pull off the shock of the season. BTTS is 6/5 and over 2.5 goals is 1/4. 

Luton Town +2 handicap @ 11/5

Luton have lost 19 league matches this season. Remarkably, 12 of those have only been one-goal defeats, and they have been competitive in almost every game they have played. They only lost by one goal to Man City at Kenilworth Road, and by the same margin to Manchester United and Tottenham on the road. 

Edwards has created a tough to beat outfit, and given there is absolutely no point in backing the home side to win at 1/12, I’m happy to side with the Hatters. With Real Madrid to come to town, the Etihad could be a little flat on Saturday afternoon and Luton could realistically get something. Okay, they are more than likely to lose this game, but I truly don’t think they will lose by more than one goal, which makes the +2 handicap at 11/5 very appealing. 

Luton to score @ 11/10

Again, I fancy Luton to get a goal, more than I fancy City to batter them on Saturday. The Hatters have been in great goalscoring form of late, and only Arsenal have kept them at bay in their last 16 outings. They scored twice against City in the FA Cup defeat in January, and could well trouble them again here. 

City looked leaky in midweek, conceded two at Crystal Palace in their last Premier League match and are now without a clean sheet in their last three. With Carlton Morris leading the line, I like this price of above EVS for the Hatters to find the net at the Etihad.

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