Barcelona vs Valencia Prediction: Home Win to Nil is the Best Bet

 | 28th April | 

7 mins read

Mark Sochon's La Liga Tips

The final La Liga match of Matchday 33 comes from Spain's second city as Barcelona welcome in a Valencia side still looking for a spot in a UEFA European competition next season.

This Monday night encounter is live on Premier Sports 1 (20:00) and our Spanish Football expert Mark Sochon previews the action for us and gives us his best Barcelona vs Valencia predictions...

Barcelona vs Valencia Predictions & Best Betting Tips

  • Barcelona to win to nil @ 6/5
  • Draw/Barcelona Half-Time/Full-Time @ 3/1

*Click on the linked odds to add the selections directly to your betslip on betfred.com (or app)

There’s Monday night football for Barcelona this week with Valencia the visitors to the Estadi Olímpic in what is the final game on matchday 33 in La Liga.

It has been an eventful fortnight in the Catalan capital. Barcelona’s season all but ended in the space of six days with a 4-1 defeat to PSG and a 3-2 loss against Real Madrid, effectively condemning them to a trophyless campaign and bringing the curtain down on the Xavi era, or so it seemed.

The Barça boss had announced his intention to step down this summer following a dismal 5-3 home defeat against Villarreal back in January. While things have improved considerably on the pitch since then, Xavi had publicly at least insisted that nothing had changed regarding his future, despite rumblings that the club were keen to change his mind.

While the manner of the collapse against PSG, with Xavi himself losing his cool on the touchline and again seeing red, did little to help his case for an extended stay, the 44-year-old has since sat down with president Joan Laporta and agreed to fulfil his current contract which runs until 2025.

Behind the public display of unity, It feels like something of an awkward arrangement with financial restraints and the lack of a clear alternative making another year of Xavi, who did lead Barcelona to the title only last season, a more appealing option.

The summer of 2025 may throw up more options with the likes of Pep Guardiola, Luis Enrique and Mikel Arteta all currently only on contracts until next summer while Jürgen Klopp may also be on the club’s radar after his one-year sabbatical.

That’s a matter for another day and Barcelona’s players must now focus on seeing out the present season, although in truth there is little left to get excited about. They still need a few more points to guarantee Champions League qualification, but there is no prospect of Barcelona catching Real Madrid, who won again on Friday night to close in on the title.

Valencia are no pushovers this season and will offer a genuine test in this game, with Rubén Baraja’s side making a surprise push for European football. With a young team that benefited from very limited summer investment, they’ve exceeded all expectations and find themselves in a battle with Real Sociedad and Betis for the lesser European places.

Los Che were very well-placed to secure at least 7th and Conference League qualification, but a 2-1 home defeat against Betis last time out was a significant blow to those aspirations.

They’d been in decent form before that, particularly at the back with just one goal conceded in their previous five league games. Having Giorgi Mamardashvili, the brightest young goalkeeper in La Liga, between the sticks certainly helps while Valencia can also count on a solid central defensive pairing in the form of Cenk Özkacar and Cristhian Mosquera.

At the other end of the pitch, there are more limitations, with Valencia’s return of 35 goals from 32 games only the 13th best goalscoring record in the division. Striker Hugo Duro has been their most consistent threat, but they’ve been boosted by the return to fitness of midfielder André Almeida in recent weeks with the 23-year-old scoring the only goal in wins at Osasuna and Granada this month.

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With Xavi’s situation resolved, Barcelona can now properly start to look towards next season, but it’s perhaps too early for experimentation and we’re likely to see a strong home eleven here with work still to do to absolutely guarantee Champions League qualification.

Alejandro Balde and Gavi remain out while Frenkie de Jong sustained a nasty ankle injury in El Clásico, meaning we won’t see him in La Liga again this season. Pedri is the most likely candidate to replace him in what could be the only change from the eleven that lost in Madrid eight days ago.

Valencia’s most significant absentee is their injured captain José Gayà who is influential from left back. They are also without Mouctar Diakhaby to a long-term injury while Roman Yaremchuk is still out, but there are no fresh issues for Rubén Baraja following the defeat to Betis last time out.

Barcelona vs Valencia Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Barcelona vs Valencia page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Barcelona head into the game as the clear 1/3 favourites with the Draw at 4/1 while Valencia are available at long odds of 17/2.

With the exception of the five goal thriller at the Santiago Bernabéu, recent Barcelona league games have been very low scoring. Under 1.5 Goals is available at 100/30 here and has been a winning bet in four of Barça’s last six outings in La Liga and five of Valencia’s last six. You can also back Under 2.5 Goals at 6/5 while Both Teams to Score - No is priced at 4/5.

If you’re expecting a bit more action, you can back Barcelona and Over 2.5 Goals at 10/11 while Barcelona are priced at Evens to score in both halves.

Robert Lewandowski is the 3/1 favourite to score first, while he’s on offer at 10/11 to score anytime. The Polish striker has only scored one more league goal this season than Valencia’s Hugo Duro though and you can back the visiting forward to score anytime at 11/4 here.

In-form Raphinha is an appealing alternative option with the Brazilian registering four goals and three assists in his last six starts. You can back Raphinha to score anytime at 7/4 while he’s 11/5 to register an assist.

Bet 1 - Barcelona to win to nil @ 6/5

Prior to the trip to Real Madrid, Barcelona were looking really good defensively in La Liga with six straight clean sheets heading into El Clásico. With Andreas Christensen doing a decent job in the holding midfield role and Pau Cubarsí forming a strong central defensive partnership with Ronald Araújo, the lesser sides in Spain have found it much tougher to breach their defence than was the case only a few months ago.

While Valencia are pushing for Europe, they are not a team stacked full of genuine goal threats and we’re unlikely to see anything too adventurous from Rubén Baraja. The visitors are capable

of competing and staying in the game, but the home team should claim the points and I’m backing Barcelona to win to nil at 6/5.

Bet 2 - Draw/Barcelona Half-Time/Full-Time @ 3/1

Valencia have kept clean sheets in four of their last six outings in La Liga and they boast the third-best defensive record in La Liga. They’ve only let in 12 First Half goals all season, which suggests they’ve got a real shot of at least shutting Barcelona out until the interval.

Barça do tend to perform better after the break too, particularly at home with a huge 76% of their league goals at the Estadi Olímpic coming in the Second Half. Therefore, I think there’s real value in backing Draw/Barcelona Half-Time/Full-Time at 3/1 here.

You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...

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