The NFL Draft is looming very firmly into view and we take a look at the betting markets to see if we can unearth a bit of value for those looking to place a bet on the event in the early hours of Friday morning…
NFL Draft 2023 Betting Tips
- Back Under 4.5 Quarterbacks Drafted in the First Round at 7/5
- Back CJ Stroud to be the Second Player Drafted at 9/2
- Back Jalen Carter to be the First Defensive Player Drafted at 18/1
We’ll start with the number one overall pick, which looks like a fait accompli and not one to bet on as everyone fully expects the Carolina Panthers to select Alabama QB Bryce Young. We currently have the odds of this happening at 1/12 and that seems about right.
A couple of weeks ago CJ Stroud was the favourite and we even discussed it amongst ourselves within our team at Betfred HQ about how Young at 9/4 was a great price. Those odds didn’t last long and no surprises are expected here.
Now looking at who might go second, well that is where things start to get a little bit interesting. For a while it has looked as though the aforementioned CJ Stroud had a lock on going to the Texans with this selection but the waters have certainly been muddied in recent days. Could Will Levis or Anthony Richardson be the Franchise signal caller instead?
Both players have vaulted up mock draft boards since the combine with a plethora of scouts falling in love with their raw tools. The fact is though that Stroud is the best QB of the three right now and taking either of the other two comes with significantly more risk. The 9/2 available on Stroud as of Wednesday lunchtime feels huge.
The third pick seems to be Will Anderson across most mocks, so the 3/1 feels like a good price but with plenty of teams still looking for that Franchise player under Center, could Arizona trade out of this spot for a team who has fallen in love with one of the two QBs who are still available? That seems very plausible, so I’m not willing to tip up this selection.
It does lead into my real longshot of the night, Jalen Carter to be the First Defensive Player drafted at 18/1. If the top four picks are all QBs then I don’t see Pete Carroll passing on the destructive Defensive Lineman out of Georgia. Off-field questions have seemed to have stunted his momentum up draft boards but you don’t get many big men who can both plug up the middle and get after the opposition Quarterback. That price just feels too big not to have a small dabble despite Tyree Wilson and Will Anderson being much shorter in the market.
My final play can be renamed as ‘Will Hendon Hooker go in the First Round?’ as it would be a massive stunner if none of Young, Stroud, Levis and Richardson are selected very early. With players like Trey Lance and Lamar Jackson potentially being traded on draft night to teams looking for a QB, this limits Hooker’s potential landing spots on opening night. The Raiders seem like the team to watch but if they manage to swing a trade then the chances of the Tennessee man dropping to Day 2 feels better than a 50:50 shot. I’ll take the under for a value play.