Tennis Betting Tips: Scintillating Sinner to star again on Wednesday

Wednesday brings further action from the US Open quarter-finals, which are all available to watch live on Betfred.com.

A couple of multi-Grand Slam champions feature in Wednesday's Tennis Betting Tips, which you can check out below.

Set Handicap - Karolina Muchova (CZE) +1.5 vs Naomi Osaka (JAP) @ 8/11

Two-time US Open winner Naomi Osaka has looked back to her best in the last couple of tournaments, reaching the final of the Canadian Open in Montreal earlier this month and making the quarter-finals in Flushing Meadows this week.

The 27-year-old has only dropped a single set in her first four matches, to Daria Kasatkina (6-0, 4-6, 6-3) in the third round last Saturday, and her latest victory, over World No. 3 Coco Gauff (6-3, 6-2), was impressive.

With 10 wins from her last 11 matches, eight in straight sets, and as a four-time major winner, it's little surprise to see the Japanese player installed as the heavy favourite (1/2) to progress from her quarter-final tie with Karolina Muchova. Osaka is even 21/20 to triumph in straight sets, a nod to her past achievements and current form.

However, that line of thinking probably does a disservice to her opponent, Muchova, who, in contrast to Osaka, has had to battle her way to the final eight of this competition.

The Czech has won all of her matches 2-1, starting with a victory over former World No. 1 and two-time US Open champion Venus Williams (6-3, 2-6, 6-1), who enjoyed the full support of the Arthur Ashe Stadium, making a seemingly simple match that much tougher.

Muchova will be second in the minds of fans again on Thursday, with the USA-raised Osaka likely to be the crowd favourite in this quarter-final.

Still, Muchova has shown before that she can overcome a hostile atmosphere, and she can lean on an equal head-to-head record against Osaka, despite losing their first meeting at the Cincinnati Open (7-6, 4-6, 2-6) in August 2020.

The 29-year-old won the next two matches, beating Osaka at the Madrid Open (6-4, 3-6, 6-1) in May 2021 and at the US Open (6-3, 7-6) in August last year, before her Japanese counterpart levelled up at the Australian Open (6-1, 1-6, 3-6) in January 2025.

As you can see, Muchova has never failed to take at least one set against Osaka, and she's only lost in straight sets twice in her last 15 matches.

Osaka is the favourite for a reason, but Muchova has shown herself to be a fierce competitor, and I'm backing her to win at least one set on Thursday, so take the +1.5 set handicap on the Czech at 8/11.

Match Betting - Alex de Minaur (AUS) to beat Felix Auger-Aliassime (CAN) @ 8/13

Alex de Minaur to win 3-0 was a winner in Monday's Tennis Betting Tips, and I'm looking to repeat that feat on Wednesday, as the Australian takes on Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime in the US Open quarter-finals.

On Monday, I wrote about De Minaur's strong record against lower-ranked opponents, and his expertise in that field came to the fore again in his last-16 tie with qualifier Leandro Ried, as he breezed past the Swiss 6-3, 6-2, 6-1.

Auger-Aliassime, 18th in the ATP Live Rankings and a former semi-finalist (2021) at the US Open, should provide much sterner opposition on Wednesday, so backing another straight-sets victory for De Minaur, albeit rather tempting at 3/1, would be considered a brave selection.

The 26-year-old isn't a big price to beat Auger-Aliassime in Flushing Meadows, but he could be worth picking in an accumulator, as I fancy him to continue his strong form in this North American swing.

De Minaur won the Washington Open in July and reached the quarter-finals of the Canadian Open in Toronto the following month, and he's won three of his four matches at the US Open in straight sets.

Auger-Aliassime has upset the odds in the past two rounds, beating third seed Alexander Zverev (4-6, 7-6, 6-4, 6-4) and 15th seed Andrey Rublev (7-5, 6-3, 6-4), but a third victory in a row against higher-ranked opposition could be beyond the 25-year-old.

This quarter-final will be De Minaur's fifth in his last seven Grand Slam appearances, a record bettered only by Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic in that period, highlighting his consistency on the biggest stages. He's yet to make it to a semi-final at a Grand Slam, but three of his previous quarter-final defeats have been to top-five players, which Auger-Aliassime is not.

It's been three years since the Canadian last reached a Grand Slam quarter-final, and although he holds a 3-2 record against De Minaur, the two have only faced off once since November 2022, at the Italian Open in May last year, when the Australian triumphed 6-7, 6-4, 6-4.

Auger-Aliassime's power could pose De Minaur problems, but the number eight seed has the return game and durability to match, which should be enough to send him through to the semi-finals.

Set Betting - Jannik Sinner (ITA) 3-0 vs Lorenzo Musetti (ITA) @ 3/5

What more can be said about Sinner right now? The World No. 1 and reigning US Open champion was expected to face a tough test against an in-form Alexander Bublik, who beat him at June's Halle Open in their last meeting, in Monday's last-16 tie at Arthur Ashe Stadium, but Sinner swept the floor with the Russian-born, Kazakhstani player, beating him 6-1, 6-1, 6-1.

Sinner had experienced a slight wobble in his third-round victory over Denis Shapovalov (5-7, 6-4, 6-3, 6-3), losing the first set, but he looked back to his best against Bublik, who remains one of just two players - the other being World No. 2 Alcaraz - to have beaten the Italian this year.

On Wednesday, the 24-year-old faces compatriot Lorenzo Musetti, whom he beat twice in straight sets in 2023, which remain their only previous meetings, in the quarter-finals of the US Open.

Musetti entered the tournament in poor form, with just a single victory from his last six matches, but he's sailed into the final eight in New York, most recently beating Jaume Munar (6-3, 6-0, 6-1) on Monday. While his return to form should be recognised, it's probably fair to suggest he stands little to no chance of upsetting Sinner in midweek.

The 23-year-old may not have played his fellow Italian this year, but he's met Alcaraz three times in 2025 and lost all three meetings. The gap between the top two and the rest of the top 10 - Musetti is ninth in the ATP Live Rankings - is substantial, and Sinner should be able to showcase that difference in quality on Thursday.

Targeting a third Grand Slam of the calendar year, Sinner is in no mood to hand out any further presents, with his generosity surely used up against Shapovalov, so I'm backing him to record a fourth straight-sets victory of the tournament against Musetti.

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