Tennis Betting Tips: Dzumhur to beat Bellucci in Cincinnati

I managed to end the 2025 Canadian Open with a couple of winners in Thursday's Tennis Betting Tips, as Victoria Mboko upset the odds in Montreal, beating Naomi Osaka to land the 5/4 match result selection. Meanwhile, Ben Shelton powered 16 aces against Karen Khachanov en route to lifting the trophy in Montreal, ticking off the 13/8 for 15+ aces in the process.

In Friday's Tennis Betting Tips, I turn my attention to the Cincinnati Open, where the first round is already underway.

Set Betting - Sonay Kartal (GBR) 2-0 vs Caroline Garcia (FRA) @ 7/10

Sonay Kartal made her first big impression at a Grand Slam last month, beating 20th seed Jelena Ostapenko (7-5, 2-6, 6-2) en route to the fourth round of Wimbledon. She hasn't played since her defeat to Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (6-7, 5-6) at SW19 on July 6, but returns to action on the hard courts this week in Cincinnati.

The 23-year-old enjoyed a fine run to the last 16 of the Indian Wells Open in March, winning three matches before falling to World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka (1-6, 2-6). Could the Brit be set for another solid tournament on this surface?

While it feels like Kartal's career is only just starting, her opponent on Friday, Caroline Garcia, announced in May that she would be retiring after "a few" more tournaments.

The 31-year-old has only played once since outlining her intentions, losing to Bernarda Pera (4-6, 4-6) in the first round of the French Open, meaning she comes into the Cincinnati Open severely undercooked.

Kartal hasn't played for more than a month, but it's over two months out of action for the Frenchwoman, who has lost five of her last seven matches in straight sets. The former World No. 4 is a former winner of this event, taking the title in 2022, but that remains the only one of her 10 appearances where she has reached the quarter-finals.

Garcia will be desperate to depart Cincinnati with another win or two under her belt, but Kartal, full of confidence following the grass swing, should be able to shut down any hopes the veteran may have of a second-round outing.

Kartal won her first WTA singles title at the Jasmin Open in Monastir, Tunisia, last September, so she has enjoyed success on hard courts over the past 12 months and looks likely to ease past Garcia on Friday.

Set Betting - Reilly Opelka (USA) 2-0 vs Hugo Dellien (BOL) @ 1/2

Reilly Opelka has been extremely inconsistent this season, and particularly in the last few months, managing back-to-back wins just twice since the start of May (played 24). He reached the semi-finals of the Libema Open in s-Hertogenbosch, but hasn't made it past the round of 32 at any other event in the last three months.

Still, the 27-year-old has a great first-round record this year, winning his first match in 11 of the last 12 events he has entered, and his only defeat in that run came against a higher-ranked opponent in Learner Tien, who also ended his Canadian Open experience this year in the third round.

On Friday, the American takes on Hugo Dellien, who is 108th in the ATP rankings, 35 places below him. They've never met before on tour, but former World No. 17 Opelka, with four ATP singles titles to his name, is the clear favourite to claim victory in Cincinnati.

Dellien's career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 64 was achieved in August 2022, and at 5ft 11in, stands exactly a foot lower than Opelka, whose big serves are likely to cause him huge issues on this surface.

The Bolivian hasn't won a tour-level main-draw match on hard courts since the 2019 US Open, and his defeat to Fabian Marozsan (2-6, 2-6) in Toronto last week was his first-ever main-draw appearance in a hard-court Masters event.

It also marked Dellien's third consecutive defeat, and in the second of those, against Vit Kopriva at the Nordea Open in Bastad, Sweden, on July 15, he was forced to retire at 1-6, 0-3 down.

Since the start of 2023, the 32-year-old has lost eight of his 11 hard-court contests, six of them in straight sets, and his victories have all come against players outside the top 100.

If Opelka is anywhere near the top of his game on Friday, this should be a comfortable victory for the American.

Match Betting - Damir Dzumhur (BOS) to beat Mattia Bellucci (ITA) @ 5/4

Damir Dzumhur (56th) is on the verge of entering the top 50 for the first time since 2019, after a solid season on the clay courts, his preferred surface.

The Bosnian's venture onto grass didn't go so well as he lost all three matches he played across the Stuttgart Open, the Mallorca Championships, and Wimbledon.

Following his defeat in England, Dzumhur returned to clay in Bastad, winning his first couple of matches, as he then did in Umag, Croatia, to restore some confidence ahead of another hard-court swing.

The 33-year-old's Canadian journey didn't last long as he was beaten 3-6, 5-7 by Francisco Comesana in Toronto last week, but he may fancy his chances of upsetting the odds in the USA against 74th-ranked Mattia Bellucci, who was forced to retire at 3-6, 6-4, 0-2 against Hugo Gaston in Toronto.

Bellucci has had an interesting calendar year to say the least, notably losing nine straight matches between April 6 and June 14, with the first five of those defeats on hard courts. He enjoyed more success on grass, shocking Jiri Lehecka (7-6, 6-1, 6-5) in the second round of Wimbledon, but now returns to a surface on which he has lost his last six contests, and seven of his last eight.

The 24-year-old did reach the semi-finals of the (indoor) Rotterdam Open in February, but a 16-33 win-loss record for the season is poor, and since beating lucky loser Billy Harris in his Masters main-draw debut in Shanghai last year, Bellucci has lost all four of his first-round matches at this level.

The head-to-head record is equal, with Bellucci winning the first clay-court meeting on the ATP Challenger Tour in 2022, before Dzumhur levelled things up earlier this year at the Madrid Open.

This marks their first-ever match-up on the hard courts, and while I understand the logic behind Bellucci being installed as the favourite, there's too much uncertainty around the Italian at the moment, particularly after his recent retirement, for me to back him.

Dzumhur, meanwhile, will sense a chance to improve his record on this surface on Friday and to edge closer to the top 50.

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