Tennis Betting Tips: Home hero Mboko to upset Osaka in Montreal final

The 2025 Canadian Open draws to a close on Thursday (early hours Friday, UK time), with Victoria Mboko taking on Naomi Osaka in the WTA final in Montreal, and Karen Khachanov clashing with Ben Shelton in the ATP final in Toronto.

Below are my Thursday Tennis Betting Tips, featuring a selection from each final.

Match Betting - Victoria Mboko (CAN) to beat Naomi Osaka (JAP) @ 5/4

After going down 1-6 in the first set of her semi-final against Elena Rybakina, it looked like I had gotten on board the Mboko hype-train too late, having backed her to beat the Russian-born, Kazakhstan player at 6/4 in Wednesday's Tennis Betting Tips.

However, Mboko roared back in the second set, taking the semi-final to a third, and she held her nerve in the tiebreaker to triumph 1-6, 7-5, 7-6 to reach her first tour-level final, at a WTA 1000 event, no less.

Standing between the 18-year-old and a title on home soil is four-time Grand Slam winner Osaka, who has enjoyed a renaissance on court after entering the tournament unseeded.

Osaka made light work of Clara Tauson, who hadn't dropped a set in her four matches in Montreal this year, beating reigning Grand Slam champions Iga Swiatek (7-6, 6-3) and Madison Keys (6-1, 6-4) en route to the final four, but the Dane couldn't get the better of her Japanese counterpart, who triumphed 6-2, 7-6 to make her first WTA 1000 final since the Miami Open in April 2022.

The 27-year-old is seeking her eighth title and first since the 2021 Australian Open. She stepped away from tennis for 15 months at the end of the 2022 season, taking maternity leave after the birth of her child and only returning at the beginning of last year.

Osaka looks to be getting back somewhere near her old self after five straight-set victories out of six in Montreal, and that form, combined with her experience, has seen her installed as 8/13 favourite in the final against Mboko. That's understandable, but we've already seen Mboko upset the odds this week against Coco Gauff (6-1, 6-4) and Rybakina, so who's to say she won't do the same again at IGA Stadium?

I'm certainly not backing against her after she came up clutch in the semis, so I'll take the 5/4 on offer for her to win in front of a partisan crowd, please and thanks.

Pick Your Punt - Ben Shelton (USA) to serve 15 or more aces vs Karen Khachanov (Wrl) @ 13/8

World No. 7 Shelton overcame fellow American Taylor Fritz 6-4, 6-3, to reach his first ATP Masters 1000 final, and he will move ahead of Novak Djokovic and rise to a career-high No. 6 if he beats Khachanov in Toronto.

The 22-year-old held his serve against Fritz (No. 4), securing back-to-back victories over top-10 players, having beaten Washington Open champion Alex de Minaur (No. 8) 6-3, 6-4 in the quarter-finals earlier this week.

In the semis, Shelton hit 22 unreturned serves to his opponent's 10, recording seven aces; one in the first set, and six in the second. He's averaging 9.28 aces per match at this year's Canadian Open, albeit more than half (35) of his tally (65) came across his first two contests against Adrian Mannarino (16) and Brandon Nakashima (19).

Still, he hit 12 against World No. 17 Flavio Cobolli in the last 16 and 11 against De Minaur, despite his latter victory coming in straight sets against a solid returner.

Shelton recorded exactly 16 in two-set wins over Mannarino and Gabriel Diallo - the latter at last month's Washington Open - though, and while it may have been on grass, 14 aces in a straight-sets defeat to World No. 1 Jannik Sinner in the Wimbledon quarter-finals was seriously impressive.

There's no denying he's one of the biggest servers in the game right now, so 13/8 for him to serve 15 or more aces is likely to pique interest among bettors, particularly those who believe this final will go to three sets.

Khachanov upset the odds against Alexander Zverev (6-3, 4-6, 7-6) to reach his second ATP Masters 1000 final, seven years after his first in Paris.

Zverev racked up 13 aces in a match that lasted five minutes shy of three hours, and up against Shelton, Khachanov must deal with the threat of another big server.

Shelton's compatriot, Emilio Nava, hit double figures (10) for aces in his second-round defeat to Khachanov last week, while Casper Ruud, despite losing 4-6, 5-7 to the Russian, made nine.

Diallo (15) is the only man to have recorded 15+ aces against Khachanov on hard court this calendar year, but Shelton, who has achieved the feat four times on the surface in 2025, is more than capable of reaching that minimum total in Toronto.

Their only previous head-to-head came at the Indian Wells Open in March, with Shelton firing eight aces in a 6-3, 7-5 win.

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