Tennis Betting Tips: Back more Zizou magic in Monte-Carlo Masters round of 16

The last 16 of the Monte-Carlo Masters in Monaco starts on Thursday, with Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner headlining the names on show.

Below are my Thursday Tennis Betting Tips as I pick out two matches that offer value...

Match Betting - Zizou Bergs to beat Alexander Zverev @ 10/3

After seeing Zizou Bergs outclass World No. 15 and 2023 Monte-Carlo champion Andrey Rublev 6-4, 6-1 and Alexander Zverev scrape past World No. 109 Cristian Garin 4-6, 6-4, 7-5 on Wednesday, I think it could be worth backing the Belgian to secure another big win in Monaco.

The 26-year-old is in the round of 16 at a Masters 1000 for the second time in his career thanks to his fifth career top-20 win, and third of the calendar year.

Bergs isn't a clay court specialist by any means, but he's begun the season impressively, following up his opening-round victory over veteran Adrian Mannarino (6-4, 6-4) with another straight-sets success over Rublev, whose only break of serve against the Belgian came in the third game of the first set. Bergs faced three break points thereafter, but saved them all, and broke the Russian's serve four times, twice in the first set and twice in the second.

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Zverev, meanwhile, ambled to victory over Garin to tie the head-to-head 2-2 with the Chilean, a former top-10 player no less, who has won all five of his ATP titles on clay, although only one, Munich in 2019, came in Europe, with three of the other four secured in more familiar surroundings of South America.

Garin was perhaps underestimated on Wednesday, but he gave Zverev the fright of his life, taking the first set 6-4 before losing the second by the same scoreline.

The 29-year-old rallied to take a 4-0 lead in the third set, and he was serving for the match at 5-3, but he crumbled in the ninth game and eventually lost 5-7.

Worryingly for Zverev, though, the Russian gave up three break points in the deciding game, and better and more in-form players than Garin would surely have punished him.

Bergs and Zverev have never met on the ATP Tour, so there's no past meetings to lean on here.

Instead, I'm using the eye test, and while Bergs was simply brilliant on Wednesday, Zverev, while deserving of praise for his powers of recovery, looked lacklustre, to say the least, against Garin, firing 47 unforced errors.

Total Games - Over 24.5 in Matteo Berrettini vs Joao Fonseca @ 1/1

This looks like a cracker of a contest over on Court des Princes.

Matteo Berrettini, fresh from handing out World No. 10 and 2021 US Open champion Daniil Medvedev the first 0-6, 0-6 loss of his career on Wednesday, takes on teenage star Joao Fonseca, who followed up a 6-2, 6-3 victory over Gabriel Diallo in the first round with a 7-5, 4-6, 6-3 triumph against Frenchman Arthur Rinderknech to reach the last 16 of a Masters 1000 for the second time in his career.

The higher-ranked Fonseca, backed, as ever, by a vocal Brazilian contingent, starts as the favourite on Thursday, but he faces a stern test against former World No. 6 Berrettini, who has battled back from a spate of injuries over the last few years.

Berrettini, 10 years Fonseca's senior at 29, will benefit from very little court time so far this week, as, 4-0 up in the first round, his opponent, Roberto Bautista-Agut, retired after just 21 minutes. That match, of course, was followed by a 12-game and 51-minute victory over Medvedev, meaning he has spent little over an hour on court in Monaco, and has yet to concede a game.

The ease of his wins should help him stay fresh for what is likely to be an exerting battle against Fonseca, who has seen three of his last five matches against players not-named Jannik Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz, go to a deciding set.

Both Berrettini and Fonseca are well adjusted to clay this year, with the Italian and Brazilian taking part in the South American Golden Swing, so there should be no rustiness on the part of either.

As a result, I expect to see a competitive match unfold on Thursday, with over 24.5 games a real possibility.

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