Men’s Australian Open Final 2026 Prediction: Alcaraz can turn the tables on Djokovic

We've reached the final of the 2026 Australian Open Final, with history awaiting whoever lifts the famous trophy on Rod Laver Arena on Sunday. Carlos Alcaraz is looking to complete the career Grand Slam with his first victory in Melbourne, while Novak Djokovic is seeking a record-breaking 25th Grand Slam title.

The two met in Australia in last year's quarter-finals, when the Serbian came out on top, but this looks like an even tougher test for Djokovic, both physically and mentally. Both players were pushed all the way in their semi-finals and will need all the time possible to be 100% ready for Sunday’s showpiece.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Odds

Carlos Alcaraz to win 3-1 @ 13/5

Djokovic has the edge in the head-to-head stats going into Sunday’s final, with five wins to Alcaraz's four.

The Spaniard won their most recent clash, a straight-sets victory in last year's US Open semi-finals, before going on to take the title in New York.

Djokovic did win their only previous meeting in Melbourne, losing the first set before going on to win 3-1 at the last-eight stage.

This match-up looks to be more in favour of the younger man, especially when you consider the physical effort Djokovic needed to beat Jannik Sinner.

A five-set thriller was eventually won by the 38-year-old, who was on court for four hours and nine minutes against the defending champion.

Even though Alcaraz was on court for over an hour longer in his semi-final win over Alexander Zverev, Djokovic was the later match and didn't get wrapped up until after 2am Australian time.

His age will make it harder for him to fully recover, particularly crucial when you consider the Serbian is giving away 16 years to his opponent.

Total Games - Under 39.5 @ 8/11

If Djokovic is going to have a chance of causing an upset, he will need to keep the amount of games to a manageable number and avoid lengthy tie-breaks.

The 24-time Grand Slam champion steered clear of any tie-breaks in last year's Melbourne clash, running out a 4-6 6-4 6-3 6-4 victor.

Alcaraz and Djokovic have played five times in Grand Slam events, with the Spaniard having three wins to his rival's two victories.

It's worth noting that only one of those five meetings has gone all the way to five sets, the 2023 Wimbledon final, which was won by Alcaraz.

That is the only previous clash that has beaten the 39.5 target, with only their respective semi-final matches exceeding the target number during this year's Australian Open.

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