Wales vs Italy Prediction: Inspired Italians to inflict Welsh misery

 | March 15 | 

3 mins read

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The final weekend of Six Nations action begins in Cardiff, where Wales are looking to avoid a first wooden spoon since 2003 when they host Italy (14:15 on BBC One) - the unfortunate recipients of this award in each of the last eight campaigns.

Warren Gatland’s men have lost each of their four fixtures in this year’s competition, including a heavy 45-24 defeat at the Principality Stadium against France last time out.

Italy, meanwhile, have picked up seven points so far this campaign, with the majority coming via their 31-29 victory over Scotland in Rome last weekend and Gli Azzurri could grab another victory on Saturday.

Wales vs Italy Prediction

  • Italy to win @ 12/5
  • George North to score anytime @ 9/4

Team News

The major news in the Welsh camp was the announcement of George North’s imminent retirement from international rugby and he is one of five changes made to the starting XV.

North is joined by fellow centre Nick Tompkins as inclusions in the backs, with Owen Watkin and Joe Roberts dropping out.

Dillon Lewis starts at tight-head prop in place of Keiron Assiratti, while a positional change in the scrum sees Dafydd Jenkins move to lock as Alex Mann returns to start at flanker.

The Welsh bench is very inexperienced, with five of the eight options registering seven or fewer caps for their country. This includes Mackenzie Martin, Evan Lloyd and Kemsley Mathias.

For Italy, three changes are named to the starting line-up from last weekend’s victory over Scotland, with full-back Ange Capuozzo the most notable absence.

The 24-year old will be unable to replicate his match-winning performance in Wales in 2022 after breaking his finger last time out, with Lorenzo Pani coming in to replace him.

A change at scrum-half sees Stephen Varney start in place of the benched Martin Page-Relo, while Lorenzo Cannone returns at number eight as Ross Vintcent makes way.

Match Odds

Wales are the favourites to claim the points in Cardiff at 1/3, whereas Gonzalo Quesada’s Italy are 12/5 to win this crucial meeting.

The tie can be backed at 22/1, while Welsh winger Josh Adams is the favourite to go over the try line first at 6/1.

Italy to win @ 12/5

The Italians know that they can avoid finishing bottom of the Six Nations table for the first time since 2015, but they could go for the jugular in Cardiff given Wales’ woes this tournament.

An inexperienced squad has struggled to meet the occasion and heavy defeats across their last two meetings will not have helped the confidence of Wales’s squad going into this.

With Italy unbeaten in two consecutive Six Nations matches, Gli Azzurri will be full of confidence and could cause another shock in Cardiff.

Italy to win at 12-5

George North anytime tryscorer @ 9/4

It may not be all doom and gloom for Wales on Saturday, with an emotional farewell for North expected to provide some attacking impetus.

It is written in the stars that North can get some points on the board in the early kick-off and, with 235 points already for his country, he looks appealing at 9/4 to bring the curtain down on his glittering Welsh career with something to celebrate.

George North to score anytime at 9-4

You can find all our latest Rugby Union Betting Tips over on our Insights hub. 

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