Fiji vs Wales Prediction: Rees-Zammit can get Wales opening win

Wales start their Nations Championship campaign on Saturday afternoon (2:10pm BST, live on ITV) when they face Fiji at the Cardiff City Stadium.

After a nightmare last couple of years, the Welsh are starting to show roots of recovery but this clash with Fiji will test their recent progress. Steve Tandy has named Louis Rees-Zammit in his starting XV and the return to the wing of the Bristol star could be significant. Read on for my Fiji vs Wales predictions.

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Fiji vs Wales Odds

Despite the game being played in Cardiff, Fiji are allocated as the 'home team' and are the 4/7 favourites to win the match.

Wales, who are looking for a third straight win, can be backed at 6/4 and the draw is available at 20/1.

Team News

Fiji have named an experienced team although there is a start for young tighthead prop Tim Hoyt, as Luke Tagi is unavailable.

Acting head coach Senirusi Seruvakula has been boosted by the return of loose forward Peceli Yato, who starts on the bench, while Semi Radrada returns in the midfield.

Wales have decided to move Rees-Zammit to his favoured position on the wing, having used him at full-back during the Six Nations.

Blair Murray will play at 15 having started at full-back in the win over Barbarians, while Josh Adams comes back in and plays on the left wing.

Tomos Williams gets the nod at scrum-half, while there are three changes in the pack, with Rhys Carre (loosehead), Adam Bears (lock) and Alex Mann (back-row) all selected.

Wales to win @ 6/4

The chance to play at home in what technically is classed as an 'away game' is a big boost for Wales, who have won their last two internationals.

A victory over Italy in their final Six Nations match was followed up last weekend with a win over the Barbarians last week, so confidence should be growing in the camp.

Fiji did win on their last trip to Cardiff - a 19-24 success at the Millennium Stadium in 2024 - which made it 10 defeats on the spin for the Welsh, but Wales had been 14-3 up and let things slip.

The stats from that game show that Wales turned the ball over too much and gave away more penalties than their opponents (12-11).

Steve Tandy's squad looks stronger two years on, with the likes of the more experienced Rees-Zammit and Adams, as well as a new centre pairing of Joe Hawkins and Eddie James.

Wales win by 1-12 Points Inclusive @ 11/4

Fiji are always flagged up as a very physical side and there is no doubt they will provide a stern test of Wales' progress, but the Dragons have 12 victories to Fiji’s two and one draw from 15 previous meetings.

The last six meetings between these two teams have been close, with no more than 15 points separating them at the full-time whistle.

Five of those six have fallen within the 1-12 target, including a 32-26 Wales win at the 2023 World Cup in France.

It's also worth noting that Wales' last four matches have been within 14 points, including June's 33-31 win against the Barbarians.