Toulon vs Saracens Prediction: Understrength Sarries in for a rough day on the Riviera

Saracens have put their eggs in the domestic basket and decided to rest their England stars for Saturday's Champions Cup last-16 trip to Toulon, with Maro Itoje and others unlikely to be seen until their Easter weekend game against Gloucester. That's because even with a side containing a double-digit amount of internationals, Sarries look set to be overpowered by the resurgent Les Rouge et Noir and miss out on the quarter-finals.

A fourth European Cup might prove beyond Toulon, but there is every chance they can dominate Mark McCall's men and continue to rebuild their reputation. Below are my Toulon vs Saracens predictions for this 12:30 kick-off at Stade Mayol (live on Premier Sports 2).

Team News

Scotland's Ben White starts scrum-half for Toulon, with Baptiste Serin ready to add pace and skill off the bench.

Italy's Paulo Garbisi is at fly-half, while former England flanker Lewis Ludlum starts in the pack.

Rugby Union Odds

Saracens have named 11 internationals in their matchday 23 but are without Itoje, Jamie George, Ben Earl, Tom Willis and Elliot Daly, who are rested due to player welfare protocols.

They are likely to return in a fortnight as the visitors prioritise their Premiership campaign, with the London club currently sixth, two points adrift of fourth-placed Gloucester, whom they face on April 19.

Toulon vs Saracens Odds

Toulon are the 1/14 favourites to triumph on Saturday, with Saracens 8/1, or an 11.1% chance, and a tie 25/1.

The three-way handicap is at 18 points, with Toulon -18 available at 1/1.

Toulon -20 handicap @ 7/5

Saracens' recent 'Showdown' defeat to Harlequins meant they were always likely to prioritise last weekend's win at Leicester, making this the week they would opt to rest their England cohort under the post-Six Nations player welfare rules.

Itoje had played every minute of the last 14 games for club or country and, while among the most competitive individuals in the game, even he seemed fatigued against Quins before producing one last stand in the win at Welford Road.

Saracens, like Toulon, have won this tournament three times and even lost to the French side in the 2014 final.

That was during Toulon's 'Galactico' era of Jonny Wilkinson, Juan Smith and too many others to mention but there have been some tough times since.

However, the glory days may be returning to the Stade Mayol and they sit third in the Top 14 despite losing last weekend at Castres and have won all 12 of their home games this season.

Coach Pierre Mignoni, a diminutive yet elusive scrum-half in his younger days, looks to be blending the flair and grit that characterised his playing career.

He has stars to select from, with both White and Serin's kicking and running games bringing the best out of former All Black Leicester Fainga'anuku and Fijian flying ace Jiuta Wainiqolo.

Sarries will put up a fight, but McCall's selection decision, albeit justified, could land those left behind in a whole heap of trouble.

With the sun shining and the locals back on their side, expect Toulon to take the game by the scruff of the neck and ensure it is anything but a relaxing trip to the Riviera for their fellow three-time former winners.