South Africa vs Argentina Prediction: It’ll be close but no cigar for the Pumas

The second Rugby Union international of the day comes from the Mbombela Stadium in South Africa, where the hosts need just one point to secure the Rugby Championship. The problem is, they are facing Argentina, who know that a victory plus a Bonus Point would also see them crowned as champions as long as they don’t give up a BP of their own.

It should be a thriller, and a UK audience can watch the match live on Sky Sports Mix from 16:00 on Saturday afternoon. We preview the encounter and pass on our South Africa vs Argentina Predictions…

Whatever the outcome on Saturday, both nations can be very proud of their performances throughout the competition.

Argentina have picked up the Wooden Spoon is all but four years since they joined the Tri-Nations to form what we currently know as the Rugby Championship back in 2012. This year though, they’ve beaten New Zealand, Australia and South Africa.

The victory in Wellington to open their campaign was a sign of things to come, with outstanding defence coupled with strength in the scrum leading to the Pumas' domination and consigning the Kiwis to their seventh-straight defeat at the ground. A week later in Auckland, it was more of what the casual fan may have expected as the hosts strolled to a 42-10 victory.

Back over in Argentina though, Felipe Contepomi’s outfit lost a 20-19 heartbreaker to the Wallabies as time expired but would give them quite the shellacking in their second encounter, winning 67-27.

Winning the competition was always a long shot heading into last weekend but they showed plenty of heart, downing the Springboks 29-28 to keep hope alive. It has been a season of joy for the Pumas, but victory on Saturday would top the lot and would undoubtedly be the greatest moment in Argentine rugby.

As for South Africa, that defeat last weekend was the only one they’ve suffered throughout this competition. Back-to-back victories over Australia were followed up by exactly the same against New Zealand.

What has been apparent is just how impressive the Springboks have been in defence, conceding just 87 in five matches. That is an average of less than 18 PPG and that is going to get the job done far more often than it isn’t in Southern Hemisphere rugby, which is often a slightly more open and free-flowing game compared to what we see north of the equator.

Teams:

South Africa: 15 Aphelele Fassi, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10 Manie Libbok, 9 Jaden Hendrikse, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Ox Nche.

Replacements: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Elrigh Louw, 20 Kwagga Smith, 21 Cobus Reinach, 22 Handre Pollard, 23 Lukhanyo Am.

Argentina: 15 Santiago Carreras, 14 Rodrigo Isgro, 13 Matias Moroni, 12 Santiago Chocobares, 11 Mateo Carreras, 10 Tomas Albornoz, 9 Gonzalo Garcia, 8 Joaquin Oviedo, 7 Santiago Grondona, 6 Juan Martin Gonzalez, 5 Tomas Lavanini, 4 Pedro Rubiolo, 3 Joel Sclavi, 2 Julian Montoya (captain), 1 Thomas Gallo.

Replacements: 16 Ignacio Ruiz, 17 Ignacio Calles, 18 Pedro Delgado, 19 Franco Molina, 20 Pablo Matera, 21 Lautaro Bazan Velez, 22 Lucio Cinti, 23 Juan Cruz Mallia.

South Africa vs Argentina Odds

The price of 1/20 for the Springboks to win the game is just too short. They’ve been the best side in the competition and should be heavy favourites but they aren’t that much better than the Pumas. You can get 9/1 on the away win with the draw set at 28/1.

We have two price boosts for this match from the traders at Betfred. South Africa to win with a 30-point handicap has gone from 3/1 to 7/2. That is a pass from me but one you may want to partake in if you think they give them a real going over. Bongi Mbonambi to score a try anytime though is now odds against at 5/4 up from 1/1. The hooker has nine tries in 45 internationals, including just one in his six matches against Saturday’s opponents. Once more, that is a pass from me.

The handicap markets show the expected scoreline is for South Africa to win by between 17 and 20 points. I’m certainly not as bullish on their chances as the traders.

You can check out all of our Rugby Union Odds over at betfred.com

South Africa vs New Zealand Score Prediction:

I think South Africa are worthy favourites and should be a short price but I feel as though the market has completely undervalued the performances of Argentina over the past couple of months. They’ve only taken one real tanking, losing 42-10 at Eden Park, but that came just a week after a thrilling 38-30 victory in Wellington and they were bound to come down from that emotional high.

With Saturday’s game having the title riding on it, I just don’t get the sense that the pressure will affect the visitors. Like in the other game on Saturday, I think it’ll be close and I like the value of South Africa winning by 1-12 points. That is a 3/1 shot and if either game finishes with a close home win, we’ll have a profitable day.

I’ll go with South Africa 27-20 Argentina.