Ireland vs Italy Prediction: Sheehan to help hosts rebound
Round two of the Six Nations begins in Dublin on Saturday afternoon (14:10 GMT, ITV1) as Ireland seek to respond from opening night disappointment in Paris when facing an Italian side in confident mood after they beat Scotland in Rome.
The Azzurri have never tasted victory on Irish soil in the Six Nations but there will be some quiet confidence they can serve it up to Andy Farrell's troops given recent results for the men in green. Read on for my Ireland vs Italy predictions, teams and match odds.
Ireland vs Italy Betting Tips
*odds correct at time of publication
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Team news
Andy Farrell has made six changes to his starting XV, with Ulster pair Robert Baloucoune and Cormac Izuchukwu in line for Six Nations debuts.
The Irish boss cut six players from the matchday squad that lost to France – including 2022 World Rugby player of the year Josh van der Flier. British and Irish Lions stars Jamison Gibson-Park and Tadhg Beirne are benched.
Izuchukwu starts at No.6 while Baloucoune, who won the last of his four caps against Fiji in 2022, is on the right wing.
Captain Caelan Doris moves to No.7 with Jack Conan promoted from the bench to No.8, while there are recalls for wing James Lowe, Craig Casey at scrum half and James Ryan in the second row.
After their win over Scotland, Italy predictably make just one change. Leonardo Marin moves from full-back to centre to replace Juan Ignacio Brex, who misses the trip to Dublin for family reasons, allowing Lorenzo Pani to wear the No.15 shirt.
Full-back Ange Capuozzo and scrum-half Stephen Varney are back in training but have not been added to the Italian 23.
Ireland remain massive favourites for this Aviva Stadium showdown at 1/11, with the Italians priced at 7/1 for an historic first Six Nations victory in Dublin and the draw available at 28/1.
The three-way handicap sets Ireland at -17 points trading at 20/21, with Italy 20/21 and the handicap tie 25/1.
Ireland -14 @ 8/13
Ireland have only lost one of their last 33 meetings with Italy and in the last 13 years the average winning margin for the home side in Dublin shows at 34 points.
Italy took care of Scotland in monsoon-like conditions at the Stadion Olimpico last weekend. It was borderline unplayable at times but the hosts managed their game better than the errant Scots, which perhaps says more about Gregor Townsend's side.
Italy have achieved successive Six Nations wins just twice in a quarter of a century since joining this party and, on both occasions, it was Scotland and Wales that provided the beaten opposition.
Ireland may have dropped outside the top four in the world rankings following their chastening loss in Paris but the second half illustrated they haven't become a poor side overnight.
Recent losses to New Zealand, South Africa and Les Bleus have suggested it is a transitional time for Farrell and his squad but they were 46-19 winners against Australia in November too.
They should dominate at the set pieces and have two tries and some daylight on the scoreboard after 80 minutes.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Dan Sheehan first tryscorer @ 11/2
Irish hooker Dan Sheehan has an eye for the try line and he's now the top-scoring forward in Six Nations history.
His class was on show with a pair of crossovers for the Lions in Australia last summer and Sheehan could make the first incision for Ireland on Saturday.
Despite the result in Paris, Ireland won 15 from 16 on their own lineout, which has at times proved problematic. A similar performance against Italy will generate the sort of rolling maul scenario under which the Leinster forward thrives.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
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