Scotland vs Tonga Prediction: Much-changed Scots should be far too good

After opening their autumn campaign with an 85-0 win over the USA, Scotland's November has nosedived, losing 25-17 to New Zealand and then 33-24 to Argentina. They were 21-0 up against the Pumas, only for the South American nation's bench players to blow their hosts apart and this month feels like another missed opportunity for Gregor Townsend's side.

Scotland's final fixture of 2025 is against Tonga on Sunday. The Tongans haven't placed since September's 35-24 Pacific Nations Cup win over Canada. Tevita Tu'ifua's side have appeared laidback in their build-up to the match and it is unclear how they will approach this match at Murrayfield. Read on for my Scotland vs Tonga predictions.

Scotland vs Tonga Odds

Scotland are the massive 1/750 favourites, with Tonga 20/1 for an upset and the draw available at 28/1.

The handicap mark is 41 points, with Scotland -41 available at 5/6.

Team News

Hooker George Turner will make his 50th appearance in a side that shows 14 changes from the team that lost to Argentina, with captain Sione Tuipulota the only survivor at inside centre.

Saracens fly-half Fergus Burke wins his third cap, while flankers Jamie Ritchie and Andy Onyeama-Christie also make their first starts of the autumn, as does tighthead prop Zander Fagerson.

Scotland -45 @ 13/10

Big wins should bookend Scotland's November Tests, but after their 85-0 success over the USA, this fixture with Tonga may not be as one-sided, but it is still likely to be comfortable.

However, it will be the defeats to the All Blacks and the Pumas that will take the focus when the higher-ups do their reviews over the coming weeks.

Gregor Townsend's role could come under scrutiny, but the side he has selected is taken to outclass their opponents.

Few of Tonga's team have played together before, and some have been out of season as they are employed in the southern hemisphere, while others have spent recent weeks being beaten up in French club rugby and were enjoying some deserved rest.

Tonga will bring fight and passion, but maybe not for 80 minutes, and Scotland should ease to a big victory.

George Turner to score a try anytime @ 4/6 & Ewan Ashman to score a try anytime @ 8/15

The Tongan pack's size will make them a handful, but their lack of match practice means Scotland should be able to get a roll-on from the set-piece.

That makes tries for their hookers eminently possible and it would be fitting for Turner to mark his day with a score.

Replacement Ewan Ashman is also capable of going over after becoming Scotland's leading male try-scoring forward with his 11th and 12th efforts against Argentina.

Both should get the ball in their hands off both set-pieces.

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