Scotland vs New Zealand Prediction: Kiwis can break Scottish hearts again

 | Saturday 8th November 2025, 8:48am

Saturday 8th November 2025, 8:48am

Murrayfield scaled

The validity of Scotland's 85-0 win over the USA last Saturday has been questioned, and it is intriguing to see what their returning big boys can produce when New Zealand head to Murrayfield on Saturday (15:10 GMT, TNT Sports 1). The Kiwis gained revenge for their 2016 defeat to Ireland at Chicago's Soldier Field by beating Andy Farrell's side 26-13 at the same venue last weekend.

It is next to Edinburgh and Murrayfield to face the Scots, who they haven't lost to in a 120-year rivalry. Gregor Townsend has made some bold calls to try and end his country's duck, but as they showed in the States, the Kiwis are regaining their knack for doing enough to win. Read below for my Scotland vs New Zealand predictions...

Scotland vs New Zealand Betting Tips

  • New Zealand to win by 1-12 points @ 9/5

*odds correct at time of publication

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Team News

Duhan van der Merwe scored two tries on his 50th cap against the USA but has been dropped for this game, with the more defensively dependable Kyle Steyn handed the number 11 jersey.

Gregor Brown starts at blindside flanker over Jamie Ritchie, and Zander Fagerson's absence at tighthead prop is covered by D'Arcy Rae.

Finn Russell returns at fly-half and the team is captained by inside centre Sione Tuipulotu, with Rory Hutchison taking the 13 shirt.

Beauden Barrett starts for New Zealand at fly-half, but brothers Scott and Jordie miss out.

Lock Josh Lord and centre Leicester Fainga'anuku take their places, with Fainga'anuku starting at 13 and Quinn Tupaea shifting to his favoured 12.

Wallace Sititi also starts at blindside flanker with Simon Parker injured, and despite his exploits off the bench in Chicago, Damien McKenzie will again wear the 23 jersey.

Scotland vs New Zealand Odds

Scotland are 13/5 to secure a historic victory, with the Kiwis 1/3 and the draw 22/1.

The Scots have lost the last three meetings by eight or fewer points and are 20/21 when given a +8 start in the Handicap 3-way.

New Zealand to win by 1-12 points @ 9/5

Scotland have got closer and closer over the years, losing their last three matches against the All Blacks by eight, five and eight points.

This is hardly a vintage Kiwi side, and hopes are high that the Murrayfield crowd can produce the roar the famous ground has been waiting a hundred years for.

The All Blacks might be missing some key individuals, but they have won four of their last five games, beating South Africa, Australia twice and the Irish, with the world number one Boks the only team to defeat them in that run.

Scott Robertson is still working to get his best players fit and find the combinations to elevate his team consistently.

Townsend may feel he already has them, but depth is lacking. The Scots have gone for a six-two bench, but Zander Fagerson's absence is a big issue, and it is in key areas like that in which New Zealand can edge their hosts.

Scotland vs New Zealand - Winning Margin
New Zealand Win By 1 - 12 Points Inclusive

Odds correct at time of publishing.

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