Scotland vs Italy Prediction: Azzurri ready to run Scots close

Italy beat Scotland 31-29 in Rome last year and have genuine hopes of backing it up at Murrayfield in the pair's Six Nations opener on Saturday (14:15, BBC One). Gregor Townsend's decision to rotate for that match backfired as the Azzurri exposed his squad's lack of depth to claim the first of two wins in an impressive Six Nations campaign which also featured a draw in France. 

Home advantage should give Scotland the edge on Saturday but without skipper Sione Tuipulotu due to a pectoral issue and lock Scott Cummings, who also misses the tournament with a broken arm, the Italians might be underestimated in the market. 

Scotland vs Italy Odds

Scotland are the 1/16 favourites to avenge last year's defeat, with the draw 25/1 and Italy 8/1. 

The Scots -16 plus over 50.5 match points has been boosted from 6/4 to 7/4, while punters can now get 3/1 on Scotland to win by 21-30 points, which was previously 11/4.

Rugby Union Odds

Team News

Seventy-seven-cap second-row Jonny Gray will make his first Scotland appearance since March 2023, while Dave Cherry starts at hooker, having not featured since the last World Cup. 

Flanker Rory Darge and fly-half Finn Russell will co-captain the team in Tuipulotu's absence. Glasgow team-mate Stafford McDowall replaces Tuipulotu in the centres. 

Italy can call on last year's Six Nations Player of the Tournament, Tommaso Menoncello, who will partner Ignacio Brex in the centre. 

Lock Dino Lamb makes his tournament debut, while prop Luca Rizzoli is set to earn his first cap off the bench. 

Italy +16 @ 11/10

Scotland are the clear favourites, with Italy doubted to claim their first win at Murrayfield since 2015 and only the second in their history. 

The Azzurri look overpriced, so much so that it is worth punters giving themselves a cushion by exploiting the handicap markets. 

Italy +19 is competitive at 5/6 but Scotland's injuries, especially Tuipulotu's, make it worthwhile looking at the right side of evens and the 11/10 on offer for the Azzurri when given a 16-point start. 

After making strides with their attacking play under Kieran Crowley, the Kiwi's successor Gonazo Quesada has blended that with a more rounded gameplan and the Italians can push Townsend's hosts closer than expected.

Ange Capuozzo anytime try scorer @ 2/1

Ange Capuozzo announced himself to the wider rugby world with his 2022 brace off the bench against the Scots in Rome and he is set to make his first appearance at Murrayfield on Saturday. 

The Toulouse star's preference is to play at full-back but he will start on the wing where he usually features at club level and faces a real battle of styles against opposite number Duhan van der Merwe. 

Last year's joint-top tournament try scorer Van der Merwe obviously has the size advantage but Capuozzo makes up for his relatively diminutive frame with slippery running and superb footwork. 

The 25-year-old was born in France, but he is the poster boy for Italy and can dance through for another score. 

Offers

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