New Zealand vs Australia Prediction: Hosts to win but closer than the market thinks

The 2024 edition of the Rugby Championship from the Southern Hemisphere is hurtling towards its conclusion and we find the two traditional powerhouses of the sport fighting to avoid finishing bottom of the table.

We produce our New Zealand vs Australia Predictions for the game in Wellington, which is set to kick-off at 08:05 on Saturday morning, live on Sky Sports Main Event…

It would be fair to say that the Southern Hemisphere Spring has not been great for either country, as between them they’ve only won three matches so far.

The hosts’ only victory came at the Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi as the Wallabies beat Argentina by a single point with time expiring thanks to a Ben Donaldson penalty kick. That, though, has been the solitary moment of joy as time and again we’ve watched Joe Schmidt’s side be well-beaten as the hoped-for quick turnaround following the disastrous World Cup campaign has not been seen.

It didn’t take a week for that feel-good factor to be evaporated as the Argentines quickly got their payback when they thumped the Aussies 67-27 just seven days later, and in doing so saw the hosts enjoy a nine-try day. That is an embarrassment for a side such as Australia.

What they didn’t need was their arch-rivals flying in, but that is what the fixture list dictated. Last Saturday was not so much a game of two halves, more of the opening 15 minutes and the remainder of the encounter. The home side showed everyone that they still had something in the tank by making a fist of it after the Kiwis raced out to a 21-0 lead in just a quarter of an hour, but they still came up short, going down 31-28.

Despite being set to relinquish the trophy, it hasn’t been an awful campaign for New Zealand. The two matches in South Africa will both go down as games for the ages and thoroughly entertaining exhibitions of rugby.

Twenty-five-year-old winger Caleb Clarke has certainly been one who has enjoyed the tournament so far. The Kiwi international has scored four tries in his three appearances and he starts again in this one.

He was joined by Will Jordan, Rieko Ioane and Ardie Savia in getting across the try-line last time out in that stunning start to the match. If the visitors produce a similar display of attacking rugby to open the game, you’d expect the Australians to be blown away again. And this time they may not be able to recover, being on the road and staring down the barrel of finishing with the wooden spoon.

Teams:

New Zealand: 15 Will Jordan, 14 Sevu Reece, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Anton Lienert-Brown, 11 Caleb Clarke, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Sam Cane, 6 Wallace Sititi, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 4 Scott Barrett (captain), 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot.

Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Tamaiti Williams, 18 Pasilio Tosi, 19 Patrick Tuipulotu, 20 Luke Jacobson, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Damian McKenzie, 23 David Havili.

Australia: 15 Tom Wright, 14 Andrew Kellaway, 13 Len Ikitau, 12 Hunter Paisami, 11 Dylan Pietsch, 10 Noah Lolesio, 9 Jake Gordon, 8 Harry Wilson (captain), 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Rob Valetini, 5 Jeremy Williams, 4 Nick Frost, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Matt Faessler, 1 Angus Bell.

Replacements: 16 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 17 Isaac Kailea, 18 Allan Alaalatoa, 19 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 20 Langi Gleeson, 21 Tate McDermott, 22 Ben Donaldson, 23 Josh Flook.

New Zealand vs Australia Odds

For those who love to bet the Match Result market, the odds aren’t exactly terrific for the home win. Betfred currently have the Kiwis at just 1/28 to be victorious but if you want to back the visitors, you’ll get a decent 10/1 with the draw 28/1.

We have two price boosts for this match as you can get 13/8 from 11/8 that the home side will score the first three tries of the match. Remember, they did just that in Sydney only a week ago. We are also 11/10 that Celeb Clarke once again gets a try, which may well be a decent price considering his form. That is up from 10/11.

The value, however, will be in the handicap or winning margin markets for those who think the big favourites get the W. Twenty points seems to be the sweet spot for action on both sides, we have the Wallabies priced up at 1/1 with that head-start and the hosts 5/6 to win by 20+.

You can check out all of our Rugby Union Odds over at betfred.com

New Zealand vs Australia Score Prediction:

Pride is a big factor here, as all logic has Australia going down by a big score. Losing by 40 in Argentina is not a scoreline that would bring any hope to supporters that they can travel across the Tasman Sea and get any sort of result. Yet the home side are also just playing for pride, with any hope of defending their trophy extinguished with South Africa and Argentina playing later in the day in a battle to take the spoils.

Sometimes you look for value and a bit of a gut feel and that is exactly what I’m doing here. It has been a putrid season for the Wallabies, and whilst I’m not sure that they can win the game, you can get New Zealand to win by 1-12 in the Winning Margin market at 3/1 and that feels like a punt with some substance with the visitors keeping it somewhat competitive.

That comes in at a 25 per cent chance when you turn them into implied odds and if these two sides played four times, I think the hosts win by 12 or less at least once and possibly twice. This is why I think it is a bit of a value play.

I’ll go with New Zealand 34-23 Australia.