Italy vs Georgia Prediction: Gli Azzurri can overcome improving visitors

Georgia have been making big strides over the past couple of years and they can give another good account of themselves when heading to the Stadio Luigi Ferraris to face Italy on Sunday.

Read on for my Italy vs Georgia prediction, as well as the latest team news and match odds.

Rugby Union Odds

Team News

Italy full-back Ange Capuozzo has been ruled out with the head injury he suffered in the defeat to Argentina last weekend, with Matt Gallagher taking his place.

Jacopo Trulla replaces Louis Lynagh on the wing and Alessandro Garbisi is back at scrum-half for Martin Page-Relo.

In the forwards, Ross Vintcent is in at number eight, replacing Lorenzo Cannone, Dino Lamb comes in for the injured Federico Ruzza, while the entire front-row has been changed with Mirco Spagnolo, Gianmarco Lucchesi and Marco Riccioni making way for Danilo Fischetti, Giacomo Nicotera and Simone Ferrari.

From Georgia's last Test, a 40-29 loss to Australia in July, Tornike Kakhoidze starts at centre in place of Demur Tapladze and scrum-half Vasil Lobzhanidze, named as captain, takes the spot of Mikheil Alania.

Nika Abuladze, Irakli Aptsiauri, Giorgi Javakhia and Ilia Spanderashvili are the four changes in the forwards, with the quartet replacing Beka Saghinadze, Lado Chachanidze, Alexsandre Kuntelia and Giorgi Mamaiashvili.

Italy vs Georgia Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Italy vs Georgia page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Italy are the firm 2/13 favourites to pick up the win on home soil, with the tie priced at 28/1 and Georgia 5/1 to claim the spoils, while the handicap gives the visitors a 14.5-point start.

Italy to win by over 12 points @ 4/6

A wounded Italy will be eager to make amends for last weekend's bruising 50-18 defeat by Argentina at Stadio Friuli when they host a Georgia side that are aiming to further close the gap to the tier 1 nations.

Italy made too many errors during that heavy loss, particularly when it came to handling, and the absence of both Ange Capuozzo and Federico Ruzza for this contest will be a big blow.

However, Gli Azzurri still have plenty of quality in their ranks, with Monty Ioane a threat on the wing and the Garbisi brothers, Paolo and Alessandro, a formidable 10-9 combination.

Whether Italy can romp away with a huge victory is another story, especially as they face a Georgia side that performed admirably in a 40-29 defeat to Australia in July.

That effort came after a 21-12 loss to Fiji and a two-point victory over Japan, further evidence of how competitive Lelos have been this year.

Italy's extra quality should see them over the line, but with a couple of key players missing they may not be at their fluent best and siding with them to win by over 12 points looks the safer play, rather than backing them at a big minus on the handicap.

Over 50.5 total points @ 5/6

This contest could still produce plenty of points, even if Italy are not right at it, and backing over 50.5 points is the second selection for this autumn international.

This bet has landed in three of Italy's last four matches, with the one contest it didn't a 36-14 win over Tonga, while there have been 51 or more points in two of Georgia's last three meetings against tier 1 nations.

Rugby Union Betting Tips from Betfred Insights.