Ireland vs New Zealand Prediction: Hosts can avenge World Cup disappointment

Ireland get their autumn internationals underway on Friday night (20:10, TNT Sports 1) and Andy Farrell’s men face a difficult test at the Aviva Stadium as they take on New Zealand.

Below is my Ireland vs New Zealand prediction, alongside team news and match odds.

The Irish have not played since a stunning 25-24 win against World Cup winners South Africa in Durban in July, but they have been dominant at home in recent years - with their last defeat in front of their own fans coming against France in the 2021 Six Nations.

The All Blacks, meanwhile, have bounced back from their disappointing Rugby Championship defence - in which they lost their crown to the Springboks - with victories over Japan and England.

However, their win over Steve Borthwick’s men at Twickenham was last Saturday and the quick turnaround could hamper New Zealand’s chances of success in this encounter.

Team News

Andy Farrell has made five changes to the starting XV that defeated South Africa in their last international with four of these alterations coming amongst the backs.

Jamison Gibson-Park is recalled to start at scrum-half ahead of Conor Murray, while Bundee Aki, Mack Hansen and Hugo Keenan come in for Robbie Henshaw, Calvin Nash and the benched Jamie Osborne.

The only change in the scrum sees prop Tadhg Furlong miss out with a slight hamstring strain and he is replaced by Finlay Bealham.

Rugby Union Odds

All Blacks boss Scott Robertson has named an almost identical starting lineup to the one that defeated England last time out.

Two enforced changes are made through injury as hooker Asafo Aumua and fly-half Damian McKenzie start ahead of Codie Taylor and Beauden Barrett, who both miss out with concussion.

Ireland vs New Zealand Odds

Home advantage sees Ireland as the favourites for victory in this contest at 2/5, giving them an implied win probability of 71.4%, whereas the All Blacks are 2/1 to claim their second win within seven days.

The draw provides odds of 22/1, while James Lowe is the favourite to score a try at 1/1.

Ireland to win by 1-12 points inclusive @ 17/10

While New Zealand may have come out on top against England last weekend, a meeting with the 2024 Six Nations champions could be too tough a test to overcome and there could be more Irish joy at the Aviva Stadium on Friday.

Ireland’s impressive unbeaten run at home, stretching back 19 games to 2021, could be key in deciding this meeting and the hosts have won three of their last four home meetings with the All Blacks.

Each of the last three meetings between the two rugby powerhouses have been decided by no more than 12 points and another tight affair may be in store.

Backing the 1-12 points inclusive margin could be the best play for this highly-anticipated contest.

Offers

Place an In-Play bet of £10 or more (odds of 1/2+) on Ireland v New Zealand on Friday and get £5 in Free Bets to use In-Play on England v Australia on Saturday.

Double Delight: Place a Pre-Match First Tryscorer bet on Ireland v New Zealand and if they score the first try and then score again, we’ll double their odds!

Rugby Union Betting Tips from Betfred Insights.